Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

An assessment of economic flood risk trends across Europe reveals high current and future stress on risk financing schemes. The magnitude and distribution of losses can be contained by investing in flood protection, increasing insurance coverage or by expanding public compensation funds. However, these climate change adaptation instruments have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications. Moreover, the spatial variation in disaster risk can necessitate cross-subsidies between individual countries in the European Union.

Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods

Removal of natural organic matter in drinking water treatment by coagulation: A comprehensive review

Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that ...

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Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low- and middle-income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model-based cost-benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.

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Catastrophe risk models for evaluating disaster risk reduction investments in developing countries.

This paper examines the benefits and costs of improving or retrofitting residential structures in highly exposed low- and middle-income developing countries such that they are less vulnerable to hazards during their lifetime. Since it is misleading to assess the benefits of prevention using deterministic models, the challenges for cost benefit analyses are to express avoided losses in probabilistic terms, evaluate and assess risk, monetize direct and indirect benefits and include dynamic drivers such as changing population, land use and climate. In detail, we examine structures exposed to three different hazards in four countries, including hurricane risk in St. Lucia, flood risk in Jakarta, earthquake risk in Istanbul and flood risk within the Rohini River basin in Uttar Pradesh (India). The purpose in undertaking these analyses is to shed light on the benefits and costs over time, recognizing the bounds of the analysis, and to demonstrate a systematic probabilistic approach for evaluating alternative risk reducing measures.

Robert Muir-Wood

Papers

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Catastrophe risk models for evaluating disaster risk reduction investments in developing countries.

The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Risk from Natural Hazards to Residential Structures in Developing Countries