Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

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Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

On robust estimation of the location parameter

Rapid progress in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) has brought increasing attention to the potential impacts of AI technologies on society. In this paper we discuss one such potential impact: the problem of accidents in machine learning systems, defined as unintended and harmful behavior that may emerge from poor design of real-world AI systems. We present a list of five practical research problems related to accident risk, categorized according to whether the problem originates from having the wrong objective function ("avoiding side effects" and "avoiding reward hacking"), an objective function that is too expensive to evaluate frequently ("scalable supervision"), or undesirable behavior during the learning process ("safe exploration" and "distributional shift"). We review previous work in these areas as well as suggesting research directions with a focus on relevance to cutting-edge AI systems. Finally, we consider the high-level question of how to think most productively about the safety of forward-looking applications of AI.

Concrete Problems in AI Safety

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Mathematical Methods Of Statistics

Change-point detection in time-series data by relative density-ratio estimation

The objective of change-point detection is to discover abrupt property changes lying behind time-series data. In this paper, we present a novel statistical change-point detection algorithm based on non-parametric divergence estimation between time-series samples from two retrospective segments. Our method uses the relative Pearson divergence as a divergence measure, and it is accurately and efficiently estimated by a method of direct density-ratio estimation. Through experiments on artificial and real-world datasets including human-activity sensing, speech, and Twitter messages, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

Change-Point Detection in Time-Series Data by Relative Density-Ratio Estimation (情報論的学習理論と機械学習)

The objective of change-point detection is to discover abrupt property changes lying behind time-series data. In this paper, we present a novel statistical change-point detection algorithm that is based on non-parametric divergence estimation between two retrospective segments. Our method uses the relative Pearson divergence as a divergence measure, and it is accurately and efficiently estimated by a method of direct density-ratio estimation. Through experiments on real-world human-activity sensing, speech, and Twitter datasets, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

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Density Difference Estimation (情報論的学習理論と機械学習)

We address the problem of estimating the difference between two probability densities. A naive approach is a two-step procedure of first estimating two densities separately and then computing their difference. However, this procedure does not necessarily work well because the first step is performed without regard to the second step, and thus a small estimation error incurred in the first stage can cause a big error in the second stage. In this letter, we propose a single-shot procedure for directly estimating the density difference without separately estimating two densities. We derive a nonparametric finite-sample error bound for the proposed single-shot density-difference estimator and show that it achieves the optimal convergence rate. We then show how the proposed density-difference estimator can be used in L2-distance approximation. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method in robust distribution comparison such as class-prior estimation and change-point detection.

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Song Liu

Papers

Change-point detection in time-series data by relative density-ratio estimation

Change-Point Detection in Time-Series Data by Relative Density-Ratio Estimation (情報論的学習理論と機械学習)

Change-point detection in time-series data by relative density-ratio estimation

Density Difference Estimation (情報論的学習理論と機械学習)

Density-Difference Estimation