Econometric policy evaluation: A critique

Начала политической экономии и податного обложения = The principles of political economy and taxation

The Quark and the Jaguar

Simplifying complexity: a review of complexity theory

r 9HE purpose of this paper is to explore a hypothesis, based on acIcumulating evidence, regarding the character of inventions likely to issue from the research laboratories of the large industrial corporations. Simply put, this hypothesis may be stated as follows: with few exceptions, the large industrial laboratories are likely to be minor sources of major (radically new and commercially or militarily important) inventions; rather they are likely to be major sources of essentially "improvement" inventions. Put more precisely, the hypothesis states that the proportion of all minor inventions originating in the large industrial laboratories is likely to exceed the proportion of all major inventions originating in these laboratories. Note that the stress on the relative importance of these laboratories as sources of improvement inventions is not necessarily a denigration of the economic importance of this contribution. The cumulative effect of these improvement inventions may be, and often has been, of substantial importance over long periods of time for advancing technology, investment opportunities, and economic growth. The stress on improvement inventions as the principal product of the research laboratories of the large industrial corporations is meant simply to emphasize that, whatever the importance of their contributions, most of the latter is not likely to involve radically new inventive activity. I cannot claim originality for this hypothesis. After it suggested itself in the course of my investigations, I discovered that others, some of them in the most unlikely positions,2 had earlier said much the same thing. But, apart from occasional remarks, I can find no discussions attempting to explain or justify it. And because, if reasonably accurate, it has numerous ramifications, I have felt the need to set down an extended analysis of 1 I wish to thank members of the Seminar on Law and Technology, sponsored by the University of Wisconsin Law School under the auspices of the Ford Foundation, for their many helpful comments on this paper. Especially do I wish to thank Professors Jacob Schmookler, Robert Merrill, John Stedman, Harrison White, and John Heath. 2 See particularly the statement quoted below (p. 114) of D)r. Frank Jewett, former president of Bell Laboratories.

The journal of political economy

H. M. Minsky's financial instability hypothesis interpretation of Keynes's General Theory is outlined. Two stylized fact extensions are made to Goodwin's (1972) limit cycle model to incorporate the fundamentals of Minsky's hypothesis. The introduction of a 'real' finance sector converts Goodwin's stable system into a chaotic one, with the transition from stability to instability and breakdown determined by the level of interest rate and debt. A stylized government sector counterbalances capitalist tendencies towards euphoric investment and results in a cyclical but stable system. It is surmised that actual governments have developed away from this ideal of countercyclical behavior.

Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”

Econophysics has already made a number of important empirical contributions to our understanding of the social and economic world. These fall mainly into the areas of finance and industrial economics, where in each case there is a large amount of reasonably well-defined data. More recently, Econophysics has also begun to tackle other areas of economics where data is much more sparse and much less reliable. In addition, econophysicists have attempted to apply the theoretical approach of statistical physics to try to understand empirical findings. Our concerns are fourfold. First, a lack of awareness of work that has been done within economics itself. Second, resistance to more rigorous and robust statistical methodology. Third, the belief that universal empirical regularities can be found in many areas of economic activity. Fourth, the theoretical models which are being used to explain empirical phenomena. The latter point is of particular concern. Essentially, the models are based upon models of statistical physics in which energy is conserved in exchange processes. There are examples in economics where the principle of conservation may be a reasonable approximation to reality, such as primitive hunter–gatherer societies. But in the industrialised capitalist economies, income is most definitely not conserved. The process of production and not exchange is responsible for this. Models which focus purely on exchange and not on production cannot by definition offer a realistic description of the generation of income in the capitalist, industrialised economies.

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Worrying trends in econophysics

Explains and debunks conventional neoclassical economic theory from first principles. Highlights the unsound foundations of major elements of the standard undergraduate education in economics, discussing problems with consumer demand theory, the theory of supply, the economic theory of the firm, and the theory of the labor market. Addresses important issues that are typically omitted or trivialized in an economics education, considering controversies over the theory of capital, issues of methodology, the validity of static analysis applied to a dynamic economy, the development of macroeconomics since John Maynard Keynes, and the "efficient market hypothesis." Examines three different but consistent nonequilibrium theories of finance. Discusses how conventional economics has abused mathematics. Critiques Marxist economics. Surveys the main alternatives to neoclassical economics--Austrian economics, Post-Keynesian economics, Sraffian economics, complexity theory, and evolutionary theory. Keen is at the University of Western Sydney. Index.

Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences

Steve Keen's model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis ( Keen, 1995 ) displayed qualitative characteristics that matched the real macroeconomic and income-distributional outcomes of the preceding and subsequent fifteen years: a period of economic volatility followed by a period of moderation, leading to a rise of instability once more and a serious economic crisis. This paper extends that model to build a strictly monetary macroeconomic model which can generate the monetary as well as the real phenomena manifested by both The Great Recession and The Great Moderation.

/pdf/a-monetary-minsky-model-of-the-great-moderation-and-the-3uovp3xz17.pdf

Steve Keen

Papers

Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”

Worrying trends in econophysics

Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences

A monetary Minsky model of the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

Debunking Economics : The Naked Emperor Dethroned?