In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology

A literature and practice review to develop sustainable business model archetypes

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

Do Teleworkers Have Lower Transport Emissions? What are the Most Important Factors?

Shifting sands? Exploring rebound and the backfire in a changing economy

Estimating rebound effects from technical energy efficiency improvements by UK households

This article presents a critical assessment of research and practices that emerged over last 40 years that may be brought under the umbrella of “energy efficiency,” spanning different aggregations and domains – from individual producing and consuming agents to economy-wide effects, the role of innovation, and the influence of policy. It highlights advances in understanding the benefits of energy efficiency innovation, improvements in economic and measurement methods and tools, and progress in bending downward the energy use per unit economic output curve, which has taken over a century. We focus on how well deliberate policy actions have influenced energy users in the uptake of energy efficiency. We also note how policies pursued thus far have put less attention on social welfare, inequity issues, and need to better account for complex dynamics associated with how micro actions affect macro outcomes, and to include a richer interdisciplinary approach.

Steve Sorrell

Papers

Do Teleworkers Have Lower Transport Emissions? What are the Most Important Factors?

Shifting sands? Exploring rebound and the backfire in a changing economy

Estimating rebound effects from technical energy efficiency improvements by UK households

Energy Efficiency: What has it Delivered in the Last 40 Years?

Energy efficiency and the rebound: estimating income and substitution effects.