THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Real-Time Skill Discovery in Intelligent Virtual Assistants

This paper addresses the task of time separated aerial image registration. The ability to solve this problem accurately and reliably is important for a variety of subsequent image understanding applications. The principal challenge lies in the extent and nature of transient appearance variation that a land area can undergo, such as that caused by the change in illumination conditions, seasonal variations, or the occlusion by non-persistent objects (people, cars). Our work introduces several novelties: (i) unlike all previous work on aerial image registration, we approach the problem using a set-based paradigm; (ii) we show how local, pair-wise constraints can be used to enforce a globally good registration using a constraints graph structure; (iii) we show how a simple holistic representation derived from raw aerial images can be used as a basic building block of the constraints graph in a manner which achieves both high registration accuracy and speed. We demonstrate: (i) that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art for pair-wise registration already, achieving greater accuracy and reliability, while at the same time reducing the computational cost of the task; and (ii) that the increase in the number of available images in a set consistently reduces the average registration error.

Groupwise registration of aerial images

Bayesian optimisation is a popular method in optimising complex, unknown and expensive objective functions. In complex design optimisation problems, the additional information about the smoothness, monotonicity or the modality of the unknown objective functions can be obtained either from the domain expertise or from the problem environment. Incorporating such additional information can potentially enhance the performance of the optimisation. We propose a methodology to incorporate the aforesaid extra information to have a better fitted surrogate model of the unknown objective function. Specifically, for Gaussian Process regression, we propose a covariance function to encompass varying smoothness across the input space through a parametric function whose parameters are tuned from the observations. Our experiments on both synthetic benchmark functions and real-world applications demonstrate that embodying such additional knowledge accelerates the convergence.

Bayesian Optimisation for Objective Functions with Varying Smoothness

The Point Distribution Model (PDM) has been successfully used in representing sets of static and moving images. A recent extension to the PDM for moving objects, the temporal PDM, has been proposed. This utilises quantities such as velocity and acceleration to more explicitly consider the characteristics of the movement and the sequencing of the changes in shape that occur. This research aims to compare the two types of model based on a series of arm movements, and to examine the characteristics of both approaches.

/pdf/comparing-shape-and-temporal-pdms-1u64meo1eg.pdf

Comparing Shape and Temporal PDMs

The need to estimate a particular quantile of a distribution is an important problem which frequently arises in many computer vision and signal processing applications. For example, our work was motivated by the requirements of many semi-automatic surveillance analytics systems which detect abnormalities in close-circuit television (CCTV) footage using statistical models of low-level motion features. In this paper we specifically address the problem of estimating the running quantile of a data stream when the memory for storing observations is limited. We make several major contributions: (i) we highlight the limitations of approaches previously described in the literature which make them unsuitable for non-stationary streams, (ii) we describe a novel principle for the utilization of the available storage space, (iii) we introduce two novel algorithms which exploit the proposed principle in different ways, and (iv) we present a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the proposed algorithms and the existing methods in the literature on both synthetic data sets and three large real-world streams acquired in the course of operation of an existing commercial surveillance system. Our findings convincingly demonstrate that both of the proposed methods are highly successful and vastly outperform the existing alternatives. We show that the better of the two algorithms (data-aligned histogram) exhibits far superior performance in comparison with the previously described methods, achieving more than 10 times lower estimate errors on real-world data, even when its available working memory is an order of magnitude smaller.

Svetha Venkatesh

Papers

Real-Time Skill Discovery in Intelligent Virtual Assistants

Groupwise registration of aerial images

Bayesian Optimisation for Objective Functions with Varying Smoothness

Comparing Shape and Temporal PDMs

Two maximum entropy based algorithms for running quantile estimation in non-stationary data streams