THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The amount of multimedia content available online constantly increases, and this leads to problems for users who search for content or similar communities. Users in Flickr often self-organize in user communities through Flickr Groups. These groups are particularly interesting as they are a natural instantiation of the content~+~relations social media paradigm. We propose a novel approach to group searching through hypergroup discovery. Starting from roughly 11,000 Flickr groups' content and membership information, we create three different bag-of-word representations for groups, on which we learn probabilistic topic models. Finally, we cast the hypergroup discovery as a clustering problem that is solved via probabilistic affinity propagation. We show that hypergroups so found are generally consistent and can be described through topic-based and similarity-based measures. Our proposed solution could be relatively easily implemented as an application to enrich Flickr's traditional group search.

Flickr hypergroups

In multiagent systems, an agent does not usually have complete information about the preferences and decision making processes of other agents. This might prevent the agents from making coordinated choices, purely due to their ignorance of what others want. This paper describes the integration of a learning module into a communication-intensive negotiating agent architecture. The learning module gives the agents the ability to learn about other agents' preferences via past interactions. Over time, the agents can incrementally update their models of other agents' preferences and use them to make better coordinated decisions. Combining both communication and learning, as two complement knowledge acquisition methods, helps to reduce the amount of communication needed on average, and is justified in situations where communication is computationally costly or simply not desirable (e.g. to preserve the individual privacy).

/pdf/learning-other-agents-preferences-in-multiagent-negotiation-4wcti36i90.pdf

Learning other agents' preferences in multiagent negotiation

We describe TOBY Playpad, an early intervention program for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). TOBY teaches the teacher -- the parent -- during the crucial period following diagnosis, which often coincides with no access to formal therapy. We reflect on TOBY's evolution from table-top aid for flashcards to an iPad app covering a syllabus of 326 activities across 51 skills known to be deficient for ASD children, such imitation, joint attention and language. The design challenges unique to TOBY are the need to adapt to marked differences in each child's skills and rate of development (a trait of ASD) and teach parents unfamiliar concepts core to behavioural therapy, such as reinforcement, prompting, and fading. We report on three trials that successively decrease oversight and increase parental autonomy, and demonstrate clear evidence of learning. TOBY's uniquely intertwined Natural Environment Tasks are found to be effective for children and popular with parents.

TOBY: early intervention in autism through technology

Collaborative filtering is an effective recommendation technique wherein the preference of an individual can potentially be predicted based on preferences of other members. Early algorithms often relied on the strong locality in the preference data, that is, it is enough to predict preference of a user on a particular item based on a small subset of other users with similar tastes or of other items with similar properties. More recently, dimensionality reduction techniques have proved to be equally competitive, and these are based on the co-occurrence patterns rather than locality. This paper explores and extends a probabilistic model known as Boltzmann Machine for collaborative filtering tasks. It seamlessly integrates both the similarity and co-occurrence in a principled manner. In particular, we study parameterisation options to deal with the ordinal nature of the preferences, and propose a joint modelling of both the user-based and item-based processes. Experiments on moderate and large-scale movie recommendation show that our framework rivals existing well-known methods.

/pdf/ordinal-boltzmann-machines-for-collaborative-filtering-5gavimyukf.pdf

Ordinal Boltzmann Machines for collaborative filtering

The ability to learn and recognize human activities of daily living (ADLs) is important in building pervasive and smart environments. In this paper, we tackle this problem using the hidden semi-Markov model. We discuss the stateof- the-art duration modeling choices and then address a large class of exponential family distributions to model state durations. Inference and learning are efficiently addressed by providing a graphical representation for the model in terms of a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). We investigate both discrete and continuous distributions from the exponential family (Poisson and Inverse Gaussian respectively) for the problem of learning and recognizing ADLs. A full comparison between the exponential family duration models and other existing models including the traditional multinomial and the new Coxian are also presented. Our work thus completes a thorough investigation into the aspect of duration modeling and its application to human activities recognition in a real-world smart home surveillance scenario.

/pdf/human-behavior-recognition-with-generic-exponential-family-41zzomta2q.pdf

Svetha Venkatesh

Papers

Flickr hypergroups

Learning other agents' preferences in multiagent negotiation

TOBY: early intervention in autism through technology

Ordinal Boltzmann Machines for collaborative filtering

Human Behavior Recognition with Generic Exponential Family Duration Modeling in the Hidden Semi-Markov Model