THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The absence or abnormality of fidgety movements of joints or limbs is strongly indicative of cerebral palsy in infants. Developing computer-based methods for assessing infant movements in videos is pivotal for improved cerebral palsy screening. Most existing methods use appearance-based features and are thus sensitive to strong but irrelevant signals caused by background clutter or a moving camera. Moreover, these features are computed over the whole frame, thus they measure gross whole body movements rather than specific joint/limb motion. Addressing these challenges, we develop and validate a new method for fidgety movement assessment from consumer-grade videos using human poses extracted from short clips. Human poses capture only relevant motion profiles of joints and limbs and are thus free from irrelevant appearance artifacts. The dynamics and coordination between joints are modeled using spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks. Frames and body parts that contain discriminative information about fidgety movements are selected through a spatio-temporal attention mechanism. We validate the proposed model on the cerebral palsy screening task using a real-life consumer-grade video dataset collected at an Australian hospital through the Cerebral Palsy Alliance, Australia. Our experiments show that the proposed method achieves the ROC-AUC score of 81.87%, significantly outperforming existing competing methods with better interpretability.

A Spatio-Temporal Attention-Based Model for Infant Movement Assessment From Videos

Privacy restrictions of sensitive data repositories imply that the data analysis is performed in isolation at each data source. A prime example is the isolated nature of building prognosis models from hospital data and the associated challenge of dealing with small number of samples in risk classes e.g. suicide while doing so. Pooling knowledge from other hospitals, through multi-task learning, can alleviate this problem. However, if knowledge is to be shared unrestricted, privacy is breached. Addressing this, we propose a novel multi-task learning method that preserves privacy of data under the strong guarantees of differential privacy. Further, we develop a novel attribute-wise noise addition scheme that significantly lifts the utility of the proposed method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with a synthetic and two real datasets.

Differentially Private Multi-task Learning

We investigate speculative prefetching under a model in which prefetching is neither aborted nor preempted by demand fetch but instead gets equal priority in network bandwidth utilisation. We argue that the non-abortive assumption is appropriate for wireless networks where bandwidth is low and latency is high, and the non-preemptive assumption is appropriate for Internet where prioritization is not always possible. This paper assumes the existence of an access model to provide some knowledge about future accesses and investigates analytically the performance of a prefetcher that utilises this knowledge. In mobile computing, because resources are severely constrained, performance prediction is as important as access prediction. For uniform retrieval time, we derive a theoretical limit of improvement in access time due to prefetching. This leads to the formulation of an optimal algorithrn for prefetching one access ahead. For non-uniform retrieval time, two different types of prefetching of multiple documents, namely mainline and branch prefetch, are evaluated against prefetch of single document. In mainline prefetch, the most probable sequence of future accesses is prefetched. In branch prefetch, a set of different alternatives for future accesses is prefetched. Under some conditions, mainline prefetch may give slight improvement in user-perceived access time over single prefetch with nominal extra retrieval cost, where retrieval cost is defined as the expected network time wasted in non-useful prefetch. Branch prefetch performs better than mainline prefetch but incurs more retrieval cost.

Investigation of a prefetch model for low bandwidth networks

Understanding human activities is an important research topic, most noticeably in assisted-living and healthcare monitoring environments. Beyond simple forms of activity (e.g., an RFID event of entering a building), learning latent activities that are more semantically interpretable, such as sitting at a desk, meeting with people, or gathering with friends, remains a challenging problem. Supervised learning has been the typical modeling choice in the past. However, this requires labeled training data, is unable to predict never-seen-before activity, and fails to adapt to the continuing growth of data over time. In this chapter, we explore the use of a Bayesian nonparametric method, in particular the hierarchical Dirichlet process, to infer latent activities from sensor data acquired in a pervasive setting. Our framework is unsupervised, requires no labeled data, and is able to discover new activities as data grows. We present experiments on extracting movement and interaction activities from sociometric badge signals and show how to use them for detecting of subcommunities. Using the popular Reality Mining dataset, we further demonstrate the extraction of colocation activities and use them to automatically infer the structure of social subgroups.

Learning Latent Activities from Social Signals with Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes

Neural networks powered with external memory simulate computer behaviors. These models, which use the memory to store data for a neural controller, can learn algorithms and other complex tasks. In this paper, we introduce a new memory to store weights for the controller, analogous to the stored-program memory in modern computer architectures. The proposed model, dubbed Neural Stored-program Memory, augments current memory-augmented neural networks, creating differentiable machines that can switch programs through time, adapt to variable contexts and thus resemble the Universal Turing Machine. A wide range of experiments demonstrate that the resulting machines not only excel in classical algorithmic problems, but also have potential for compositional, continual, few-shot learning and question-answering tasks.

Svetha Venkatesh

Papers

A Spatio-Temporal Attention-Based Model for Infant Movement Assessment From Videos

Differentially Private Multi-task Learning

Investigation of a prefetch model for low bandwidth networks

Learning Latent Activities from Social Signals with Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes

Neural Stored-program Memory.