Showing papers by "Federal Reserve System published in 1998"

The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint. The model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature. In particular, the framework exhibits a financial accelerator,' in that endogenous developments in credit markets work to amplify and propagate shocks to the macroeconomy. In addition, we add several features to the model that are designed to enhance the empirical relevance. First, we incorporate money and price stickiness, which allows us to study how credit market frictions may influence the transmission of monetary policy. In addition, we allow for lags in investment which enables the model to generate both hump-shaped output dynamics and a lead-lag relation between asset prices and investment, as is consistent with the data. Finally, we allow for heterogeneity among firms to capture the fact that borrowers have differential access to capital markets. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the financial accelerator has a significant influence on business cycle dynamics.

The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle

Abstract: This article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets. Firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle. We show the sources of small business finance, and how capital structure varies with firm size and age. The interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment. We also analyze a number of research and policy issues, review the literature, and suggest topics for future research.

Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data

Abstract: In recent years, simple policy rules have received attention as a means to a more transparent and effective monetary policy. Often, however, the analysis is based on unrealistic assumptions about the timeliness of data availability. This permits rule specifications that are not operational and ignore difficulties associated with data revisions. This paper examines the magnitude of these informational problems using Taylor's rule as an example. I demonstrate that the real-time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with the ex post revised data and are revised substantially even a year after the relevant quarter. Further, I show that estimated policy reaction functions obtained using the ex post revised data can yield misleading descriptions of historical policy. Using Federal Reserve staff forecasts I show that in the 1987-1992 period simple forward-looking specifications describe policy better than comparable Taylor-type specifications, a fact that is largely obscured when the analysis is based on the ex post revised data.

A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion

Abstract: We develop a multiple asset rational expectations model of asset prices to explain financial market contagion. Although the model allows contagion through several channels, our focus is on contagion through cross-market rebalancing. Through this channel, investors transmit idiosyncratic shocks from one market to others by adjusting their portfolios' exposures to shared macroeconomic risks. The pattern and severity of financial contagion depends on markets' sensitivities to shared macroeconomic risk factors, and on the amount of information asymmetry in each market. The model can generate contagion in the absence of news, as well as between markets that do not directly share macroeconomic risks. A SPATE OF RECENT FINANCIAL CRISES-the Mexican crisis of 1995, the Asian crisis of 1997 to 1998, the default of the Russian government in August 1998, the sharp depreciation of the real in Brazil in 1999-have been accompanied by episodes of financial markets contagion in which many countries have experienced increases in the volatility and comovement of their financial asset markets on a day-to-day basis. The pattern of contagion has been uneven across both time and countries-with increased volatility and comovement occurring principally during times of financial and exchange rate crises-and with some countries, particularly those with emerging financial markets, having experienced the bulk of the contagion, while countries with more developed markets have remained relatively unscathed. Although heightened financial market volatility is to be expected within countries experiencing financial and exchange rate crises, the pattern of comovement across countries is not easily explained. Some of the increased comovement among countries that compete through trade or share close economic links can be rationalized on the basis of macroeconomic theory, but these theories are less persuasive in accounting for the increased comove

The relation between Treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads

Abstract: Because the option to call a corporate bond should rise in value when bond yields fall, the relation between noncallable Treasury yields and spreads of corporate bond yields over Treasury yields should depend on the callability of the corporate bond. I confirm this hypothesis for investment-grade corporate bonds. Although yield spreads on both callable and noncallable corporate bonds fall when Treasury yields rise, this relation is much stronger for callable bonds. This result has important implications for interpreting the behavior of yields on commonly used corporate bond indexes, which are composed primarily of callable bonds. COMMONLY USED INDEXES OF CORPORATE bond yields, such as those produced by Moody's or Lehman Brothers, are constructed using both callable and noncallable bonds. Because the objective of those producing the indexes is to track the universe of corporate bonds, this methodology is sensible. Until the mid-1980s, few corporations issued noncallable bonds, hence an index designed to measure the yield on a typical corporate bond would have to be constructed primarily with callable bonds. However, any empirical analysis of these yields needs to recognize that the presence of the bonds' call options affects their behavior in potentially important ways. Variations over time in yields on callable bonds will reflect, in part, variations in their option values. If, say, noncallable bond prices rise (i.e., their yields fall), prices of callable bonds should not rise as much because the values of their embedded short call options also rise. I investigate one aspect of this behavior: The relation between yields on noncallable Treasury bonds and spreads of corporate bond yields over Treasury yields. This relation conveys information about the covariation between default-free discount rates and the market's perception of default risk. But with callable corporate bonds, this relation should also reflect the fact that higher prices of noncallable Treasury bonds are associated with higher val

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950–2050

Abstract: Emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced-form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period of 1950–1990. Using the same set of income and population growth assumptions as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that the IPCC's widely used emissions growth projections exhibit significant and substantial departures from the implications of historical experience. Our model employs a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find clear evidence of an “inverse U” relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per-capita income.

The Efficiency Cost of Market Power in the Banking Industry: A Test of the “Quiet Life” and Related Hypotheses

Abstract: Traditional concerns about concentration in product markets have centered on the social loss associated with the mispricing that occurs when market power is exercised. This paper focuses on a potentially greater loss from market power—a reduction in cost efficiency brought about by the lack of market discipline in concentrated markets. We employ data from the commercial banking industry, which produces very homogeneous products in multiple markets with differing degrees of market concentration. We find the estimated efficiency cost of concentration to be several times larger than the social loss from mispricing as traditionally measured by the welfare triangle.

The efficiency effects of bank mergers: An overview of case studies of nine mergers

Abstract: This paper summarizes nine case studies, by nine authors, on the efficiency effects of bank mergers. The mergers selected for study were ones that seemed relatively likely to yield efficiency gains. That is, they involved relatively large banks generally with substantial market overlap, and most occurred during the early 1990s when efficiency was getting a lot of attention in banking. All nine of the mergers resulted in significant cost cutting in line with premerger projections. Four of the nine mergers were clearly successful in improving cost efficiency but five were not. It is not possible to isolate specific factors from these mergers that are most likely to yield efficiency gains, but the most frequent and serious problem was unexpected difficulty in integrating data processing systems and operations.

Do Substantial Horizontal Mergers Generate Significant Price Effects? Evidence From The Banking Industry

Abstract: This study examines the price effects of recent US bank mergers that substantially increased local market concentration. Using the deposit interest rates that banks offer their customers as our price measure, we find that, over the 1991–94 time period, deposit rates offered by participants in substantial horizontal mergers and their local market rivals declined by a greater percentage than did deposit rates offered by banks not operating in markets in which such mergers took place. We interpret our results as evidence that these mergers led to increased market power.

Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model

Abstract: We present a simple model that can account for the main features of recent financial crises in emerging markets. The international illiquidity of the domestic financial system is at the center of the problem. Illiquid banks are a necessary and a sufficient condition for financial crises to occur. Domestic financial liberalization and capital flows from abroad (especially if short-term) can aggravate the illiquidity of banks and increase their vulnerability to exogenous shocks and shifts in expectations. A bank collapse multiplies the harmful effects of an initial shock, as a credit squeeze and costly liquidation of investment projects cause real output drops and collapses in asset prices. Under fixed exchange rates, a run on banks becomes a run on the currency if the central bank attempts to act as a lender of last resort.

The role of personal wealth in small business finance

Abstract: This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between personal commitments and the allocation of small business credit. The data suggest that personal commitments are important for firms seeking certain types of loans. Guarantees are more prevalent than collateral and organization type (corporate versus noncorporate status) appears to be particularly important in determining commitment use. No systematic relationship is observed between commitment use and owner wealth. Personal commitments appear to be substitutes for business collateral, at least for lines of credit, while personal collateral and personal guarantees do not seem to substitute for each other. Personal commitments have generally become more important to small business lending since the late 1980s.

The “credit crunch” and the availability of credit to small business

Abstract: We present estimates of how much bank loans and real activity in small businesses responded to changes in banks' capital conditions and other bank and aggregate economic conditions. Using data for 1989–1992 by state, we estimated the effects of those factors on employment, payrolls, and the number of firms by firm size, as well as on gross state product. In response to declines in their own bank capital, small banks shrank their loan portfolios considerably more than large banks did. Large banks tended to increase loans more when small banks were under increased capital pressure than vice versa. Real economic activity was reduced more by capital declines and by loan declines at small banks than at large banks. Small banks were making “high-powered loans” in that dollar-for-dollar loan declines in their loans had larger impacts on economic activity than loan declines at large banks did. Capital declines at small banks produced larger changes in economic activity dollar-for-dollar than capital declines at large banks did. Aggregate economic conditions had smaller effects on small firms than on large firms and smaller effects on small banks than on large banks. The evidence hinted that the volume of loans made under Small Business Administration (SBA) loan guarantee programs shrank less in response to declines in bank capital than the volume of loans not made under the SBA loan guarantee programs.

Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios

Abstract: Default, loss severity, and average loss rates for a large sample of privately placed bonds are presented and compared with loss experience for publicly issued bonds. The chance of very large portfolio losses is estimated and some determinants of such losses are analyzed. Results show ex ante riskier classes of private debt perform better on average than public debt. Both diversification and the riskiness of individual portfolio assets influence the bad tail of the portfolio loss distribution. Private placements are similar to corporate loans in that both are monitored private debt. The results are thus relevant to management and securitization of private debt portfolios generally. MORE THAN HALF OF NONFINANCIAL corporate debt finance is iss-ued privately, and decisions of the financial intermediaries that invest in such debt depend importantly on its credit risk. Regulators of such institutions are similarly attentive to portfolio credit risk, and it is an important consideration in the design of securitizations of pools of private debt. In spite of its importance, little is known empirically about private debt credit risk, especially ex ante risk as a function of portfolio characteristics. Many studies have examined the loan portfolio performance of banks, thrifts, and insurance companies, but the ex ante risk characteristics of the portfo

Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract: The paper develops an efficiency-wage model where input prices affect the equlibrium rate of unemployment. We show that a simple framework based on only two prices (the real price of oil and the real rate of interest) is able to explain the main post-war movements in the rate of U.S. joblessnss. The equations do well in forecasting unemployment many out-of-sample, and provide evidence that the oil price spike associated with Iraq's invasion of Kuweit appears to be a component of the "mystery" recession which followed.

Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market

Abstract: Many companies on China's stock markets have traditionally had separate, restricted classes of shares for domestic residents and foreigners. These shares are identical other than for who can own them, but foreigners have generally paid only about one-quarter the price paid by domestic residents. We argue that the generally higher level (and volatility) of domestic share prices is consistent with the simplest asset pricing model, assuming plausible differences-about four percentage points-in expected rates of return by foreign and domestic investors. We attribute low Chinese expected returns to the limited alternative investments available in China. We then estimate how various company characteristics (including capital asset pricing model (CAPM) betas, company size, market liquidity, and other characteristics) affect the relative price paid by foreigners in a panel of companies. We find, for example, that foreigners pay a lower relative price for companies with a higher proportion owned by the state-refle...

Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information

Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations is that policymakers observe the current state of the economy promptly and accurately and can therefore adjust policy based on this information. However, in reality, decisions are made in real time when there is considerable uncertainty about the true state of affairs in the economy. Policy must be made with partial information. Using a simple model of the U.S. economy, I show that failing to account for the actual level of information noise in the historical data provides a seriously distorted picture of feasible macroeconomic outcomes and produces inefficient policy rules. Naive adoption of policies identified as efficient when such information noise is ignored results in macroeconomic performance worse than actual experience. When the noise content of the data is properly taken into account, policy reactions are cautious and less sensitive to the apparent imbalances in the unfiltered data. The resulting policy prescriptions reflect the recognition that excessively activist policy can increase rather than decrease economic instability.

Inflation Expectations and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Abstract: New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expectations have a difficult time explaining why reducing inflation usually requires a recession. An explanation for the costliness of reducing inflation is that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational. To explore this possibility, I estimate the degree of non-rationality implicit in two survey measures of inflation expectations. I find that the surveys reflect an intermediate degree of rationality: Expectations are neither perfectly rational nor as unsophisticated as simple autoregressive models would suggest. I also find that a structural New Keynesian model with expectations formation based on the survey results is able to match closely the empirical costs of reducing inflation.

The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality

Abstract: The propositions that monetary expansion lowers short-term nominal interest rates (the liquidity effect), and that monetary policy does not have long-run real effects (long-run neutrality), are widely accepted, yet to date the empirical evidence for both is mixed. We reconsider both propositions simultaneously in a structural VAR context, using a model of the market for bank reserves due to Bernanke and Mihov (forthcoming). We find little basis for rejecting either the liquidity effect or long-run neutrality. Our results are robust over the space of admissible model parameter values, and to the use of long-run rather than short-run identifying restrictions.

How Workers Use 401(K) Plans: The Participation, Contribution, and Withdrawal Decisions

Abstract: This paper examines how workers use 401(k) plans by examining their participation, contribution, and withdrawal decisions. Sixty-five percent of eligible workers participate in 401(k) plans. Employee participation rises with income, age, job tenure, and education. While participation also rises if the employer matches contributions, 401(k) participation does not grow with the rate of matching. When pension plan assets are withdrawn in lump-sum distributions before retirement, just 28 percent of distribution recipients (representing 56 percent of distribution assets) roll over the withdrawn funds into tax-qualified savings plans. Our findings suggest that many workers, particularly those with low incomes, do not use 401(k) plans to save for retirement.

Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract: This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general, and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This article then summarizes the other articles in this issue's special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis.

Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis

Abstract: The tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest-rate smoothing objective for the Federal Reserve. This paper investigates whether gradual movements in the federal funds rate can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and the uncertainty that the Fed faces regarding this structure, without recourse to including an ad-hoc interest rate smoothing argument in the objective function of the Fed. The analysis calculates the optimal funds rate policy given the structural form of the economy estimated in a VAR. In the absence of parameter uncertainty, the calculated policy responds more aggressively to changes in the economy than the observed policy, resulting in a substantially higher volatility of the funds rate than observed. Parameter uncertainty, however, limits the willingness of the Fed to deviate from the policy rule that has been previously implemented. Because the Fed has historically smoothed interest rates, the calculated policy under parameter uncertainty can account for a considerable portion of the gradualism observed in funds rate movements.

Discrimination, Competition, and Loan Performance in FHA Mortgage Lending

Abstract: This study tests for the presence of prejudicial or “noneconomic” discrimination on the part of mortgage lenders by evaluating the performance of home mortgage loans. The approach differs from that of previous studies of loan performance in that it is based on the proposition that noneconomic discrimination should be more pronounced in less competitive lending environments, while statistical discrimination should not. Using a rich set of FHA-insured loan records and measures of local market concentration to proxy the competitive environment, we test for the prediction of better loan performance by minority borrowers relative to white borrowers in more concentrated markets. We argue that this approach substantially reduces the potential for omitted-variable bias that has cast a shadow on previous studies of lending discrimination. Results fail to reject the null hypothesis of no noneconomic discrimination.

Empirical modeling of money demand

Abstract: This paper examines several central issues in the empirical modeling of money demand. These issues include economic theory, data measurement, parameter constancy, the opportunity cost of holding money, cointegration, model specification, exogeneity, and inferences for policy. Review of these issues at a general level is paralleled by discussion of specific empirical applications, including some new results on the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom.

The Information Content of Bank Examinations

Abstract: We identify three types of information from bank examinations—“auditing information” from verifying the honesty and accuracy of the bank's books, “regulatory discipline information” about the treatment of the bank by regulators, and “private information” about bank condition. We estimate these information effects by comparing the cumulative abnormal market returns associated with examinations in which the CAMEL rating remained unchanged, improved, and worsened. All three information effects are found to be greater for banks entering the examination process with unsatisfactory ratings from prior examinations. The only consistently strong effect found is that examination downgrades appear to reveal unfavorable private information about bank condition. The evidence also suggests that the information may reach the market in part through loan quality data released in quarterly financial statements.

Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models

Abstract: Beginning in 1998, U.S. commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for financial market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models. Currently, regulators have available three hypothesis-testing methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial, interval forecast and distribution forecast methods. Given the low power often exhibited by their corresponding hypothesis tests, these methods can often misclassify forecasts from inaccurate models as acceptably accurate. An alternative evaluation method using loss functions based on probability forecasts is proposed. Simulation results indicate that this method is only as capable of differentiating between forecasts from accurate and inaccurate models as the other methods. However, its ability to directly incorporate regulatory loss functions into model evaluations make it a useful complement to the current regulatory evaluation of VaR models.