Showing papers by "Institute for the Study of Labor published in 1987"

Compensation and Firm Performance

Abstract: This paper uses stochastic simulation and my US econometric model to examine the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments Are the variances, covariances, and parameters in the model such as to favor one instrument over the other, in particular the interest rate over the money supply? The results show that the interest rate and the money supply are about equally good as policy instruments in terms of minimizing the variance of real GNP The variances of some of the components of GNP are, however, much larger when the money supply is the policy instrument, as is the variance of the change in stock prices Therefore, if one's loss function is expanded beyond simply the variance of real GNP to variances of other variables, the interest rate policy does better The results thus provide some support for what seems to be the Fed's current choice of using the interest rate as its primary instrument Stochastic simulation is also used to estimate how much of the variance of real GNP is due to the error terms in the demand for money equations The results show that the contribution is not very great even when the money supply is the policy instrument

Hiring Procedures in the Firm: Their Economic Determinants and Outcomes

Abstract: This paper presents an economic analysis of recruitment and screening procedures chosen by firms as they hire new workers. After reviewing the relevant literature within the labor economics and human resources fields, I outline an employer search model in which firms choose hiring procedures as well as reservation productivity levels. The outcomes determined by these choices (e-g., expected vacancy durations, expected worker productivity and characteristics, and total resources devoted to hiring) are considered as well. I then present some empirical evidence on the determinants and outcomes of hiring procedures from a survey of firms. Among other things, the results show some evidence of higher productivity and lower turnover among those hired through referrals from current employees. Total time spent on hiring when using these referrals is also shown to be lower than when other methods are used. However, those hired through these referrals are less likely to be young or female than are those hired through other methods. The implications of these findings for "efficiency" and "equity" considerations are then discussed.

Comparable Worth in the Public Sector

Abstract: Proponents of comparable worth assert that within a firm jobs can be valued in terms of the skill, effort and responsibility they require, as well as the working conditions they offer, and that jobs that are of comparable worth to the firm should receive equal compensation. After documenting the major push that has occurred for comparable worth in the state and local sector, Section II of our paper discusses the case for and against comparable worth from the perspective of analystical economists.The reminder of the paper is empirical in nature and focuses on issues that arise when one attempts to implement comparable worth. Section III addresses attempts by various states to infer if comparable worth "wage gaps" exist from job evaluation studies they have conducted and tests how sensitive their results are to the statistical methods used to infer discrimination. Section IV estimates whether male/female comparable worth wage gaps nay partially be compensating differentials for differences in opportunity for occupational nobility. Finally Section V presents estimates of systems of demand curves for state and local government employees and tests whether within occupational groups male/female substitution occurs as male/female wage rates change and whether substitution occurs across occupations as occupational wages change. These estimates are then used to simulate what the likely effect of a comparable worth wage policy would be on employment of females in the state and local sector.

The Effect of Public Sector Labor laws on Collective Bargaining, Wages, and Employment

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the different legal environments for bargaining faced by public employees across the states on wage and employment outcomes for union and nonunion employees, and also on the extent of bargaining, using cross-section, within-city, and longitudinal analyses based on a newly-derived data set on public sector labor laws We find that: (1) the legal environment is a significant determinant of the probability of collective bargaining coverage; (2) collective bargaining coverage raises wages and employment for covered employees; (3) a more favorable legal environment increases wages for all employees, but substantially reduces employment for employees not covered by a contract, while slightly reducing employment for employees who are covered by a contract We also find evidence of significant spillovers of union wage effects to non-covered departments We conclude by focusing on the effects of two specific legal provisions - arbitration and strike permitted clauses - on wages and employment

What Do We Know About Worker Displacement in the U.S.

Abstract: In the United States roughly one-half million workers with 3+ years on the job have become unemployed each year during the 1980s because of plant closings. There is evidence that this represents an increase over earlier periods of similar macroeconomic conditions. Wage cuts within the observed range lower only slightly the probability that a plant will close. The average loss of earnings, due to long spells of post-displacement unemployment and to subsequent reduced wages, is substantial. While minorities suffer an above-average rate of displacement, the earnings losses they experience upon displacement are not disproportionately high. Women and older workers are no more likely than others to become displaced, and their losses are not disproportionate; but workers who have been on the job longer lose more.

Why Do Fixed-Effects Models Perform so Poorly? the Case of Academic Salaries

Abstract: A large and growing line of research has used longitudinal data to eliminate unobservable individual effects that may bias cross-section parameter estimates. The resulting estimates, though unbiased, are generally quite imprecise. This study shows that the imprecision can arise from the measurement error that commonly exists in the data used to represent the dependent variable in these studies. The example of economists' salaries, which are administrative data free of measurement error, demonstrates that estimates based on changes in longitudinal data can be precise. The results indicate the importance of improving the measurement of the variables to which the increasingly high-powered techniques designed to analyze panel data are applied. The estimates also indicate that the payoff to citations to scholarly work is not an artifact of unmeasured individual effects that could be biasing previous estimates of the determinants of academic salaries.

Quasi-Experimental Price Elasticities of Cigarette Demand and the Bootlegging Effect

Abstract: This paper updates the Lyon and Simon quasi-experimental price elasticities of cigarette demand and studies their sensitivity to changes in the cigarette market over time as well as their sensitivity to the effects of bootlegging. The results indicate a downward trend in these elasticities over time and an upward bias for states where bootlegging exists. However, once the comparison group is modified to include bootlegging-free states only, this difference over time and across groups becomes statistically insignificant.

Dynamic Factor Models of Consumption, Hours, and Income

Abstract: This paper addresses two questions. First, what are the key factors that affect a consumer's lifetime budget constraint and how do they evolve over the lifecycle? Second, how do consumers respond to changes in these factors? We examine the permanent income hypothesis and the Keynesian consumption model using a dynamic factor model of consumption, hours, wages, unemployment, and income. We show that a quarterly dynamic factor model with restrictions on the lag structure nay be used with annual panel data to account for the fact that in many micro panel data sets the variables relevant to a study are measured at different time intervals and/or are aggregates for the calendar year. By using several income indicators we are able to extend the panel data studies of Hall and Mishkin and Bernanke to allow for measurement error. We are also able to study the response of income and consumption to some of the factors which determine them. In addition, we study a dynamic factor representation of a joint lifecycle model of consumption and labor supply. We provide estimates of the effect of wages, unemployment, and other income determinants on the marginal utility of income as well as estimates of the substitution effects of wage change on labor supply and consumption.