Showing papers in "Annals of Glaciology in 2001"

Evaluation of the shear frame test for weak snowpack layers

Abstract: The shear frame allows testing of thin weak snowpack layers that are often critical for slab avalanche release. A shear metal frame with an area of 0.01–0.05 m2 is used to grip the snow a few mm above a buried weak snowpack layer. Using a force gauge, the frame is pulled until a fracture occurs in the weak layer within 1 s. The strength is calculated from the maximum force divided by the area of the frame. Finite-element studies show that the shear stress in the weak layer is concentrated below the cross-members that subdivide the frame and where the weak layer is notched at the front and back of the frame. Placing the bottom of the frame in the weak layer increases the stress concentrations, and results in significantly lower strength measurements than placing the bottom of the frame a few mm above the weak layer. Based on over 800 sets of 7–12 tests in western Canada, coefficients of variation average 14% and 18% from level study plots and avalanche start zones, respectively. Consequently,sets of 12 tests typically yield a precision of the mean of 10% with 95% confidence, which is sufficient for monitoring of strength change of weak layers over time in study plots. With consistent technique, there is no significant difference in mean strength measurements obtained by different experienced shear frame operators using the same approximate loading rate and technique for placing the frame. Although fracture surfaces are usually planar, only one of eleven shapes of non-planar fracture surfaces showed significantly different strength compared to planar fracture surfaces. For weak layers thick enough for density measurements, the shear strength is plotted against density and grain form. From these data, empirical equations are determined to estimate the shear strength of weak snowpack layers.

Variations of surface air temperature and sea-ice extent in the western Antarctic Peninsula region

Abstract: The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region has experienced a statistically significant warming trend during the past half-century. In addition, a statistically significant anticorrelation between air temperatures and sea-ice extent, as determined from satellite passive-microwave data during the past two decades, has been observed for this region. Consistent with this strong coupling, sea-ice extent in the WAP area has trended down during this period of satellite observations. Further, much of the variability in both air temperature and sea ice in the WAP region has been shown to be influenced by contrasting maritime (warm, moist) and continental (cold, dry) climate regimes. As part of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program, the ecological influence of these trends and variability is being studied, and effects have already been demonstrated at all trophic levels. Here we extend earlier observations to include the past decade and focus on the annual cycles of air temperature and sea-ice extent for the past few years, with the aim of placing these recent observations within the context of changes seen in the longer-term records. The more recent years have seen an increasing maritime influence in the WAP region, with corresponding effects on the marine ecosystem.

20th-century sea-ice variations from observational data

Abstract: In order to extend diagnoses of recent sea-ice variations beyond the past few decades, a century-scale digital dataset of Arctic sea-ice coverage has been compiled. For recent decades, the compilation utilizes satellite-derived hemispheric datasets. Regional datasets based primarily on ship reports and aerial reconnaissance are the primary inputs for the earlier part of the 20th century. While the various datasets contain some discrepancies, they capture the same general variations during their period of overlap. The outstanding feature of the time series of total hemispheric ice extent is a decrease that has accelerated during the past several decades. The decrease is greatest in summer and weakest in winter, contrary to the seasonality of the greenhouse changes projected by most global climate models. The primary spatial modes of sea-ice variability diagnosed in terms of empirical orthogonal functions, also show a strong seasonality. The first winter mode is dominated by an opposition of anomalies in the western and eastern North Atlantic, corresponding to the well-documented North Atlantic Oscillation. The primary summer mode depicts an anomaly of the same sign over nearly the entire Arctic and captures the recent trend of sea-ice coverage.

Sea ice and the stability of north and northeast Greenland floating glaciers

Abstract: The interaction between sea ice and glaciers has been studied for the floating tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier, northeast Greenland (79°30’N, 22° W). Information from glacial geological studies, expedition reports, aerial photographs and satellite imagery is used to document the glacier front position and fast-ice conditions on millennial to decadal time-scales. The studies indicate that the stability of the floating glacier margin is dependent on the presence of a protecting fast-ice cover in front of the glacier. In periods with a permanent fast-ice cover, no calving occurs, but after fast-ice break-up the glacier responds with a large calving activity, whereby several years of accumulated glacier-ice flux suddenly breaks away. Climate-induced changes of sea-ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean with seasonal break-up of the near-shore fast ice could lead to disintegration of the floating glaciers. The present dominant mass loss by bottom melting would then to a large extent be taken over by grounding-line calving of icebergs. The local influx of fresh water from the north Greenland glaciers to the sea would be reduced and the local iceberg production would increase.

Effects of regional fast-ice and iceberg distributions on the behaviour of the Mertz Glacier polynya, East Antarctica

Abstract: An observational account of research carried out in July-August 1999 shows that grounded iceberg and related fast-ice distributions, and periodic "break-outs" of fast ice (in winter as well as at other times), have an important impact on the size and behaviour of the Mertz Glacier polynya, East Antarctica, and a smaller polynya to the east. Analysis of satellite and in situ data shows that a semi-constant "stream" of thick broken-out fast ice and other large floes from the east extends westwards from north of the glacier terminus to form a compact barrier to the net west-northwesterly export of ice formed in the polynya. An annual fast-ice promontory to the west further narrows the outlet path. As a result of this and high ice-production rates, the polynya periodically "back-fills", significantly reducing the open-water area present. Intervening "flush-outs" by synoptic storm events clear the polynya region to some extent before it back-fills again. This cycle continued from mid-March until early October in 1999, when a significant change in the regional ice drift occurred. A preliminary comparison with data from 1998 indicates that the timing and magnitude of the processes may vary interannually. Similar morphological features were also observed in 1963 (on a declassified photoreconnaissance satellite image).

Simulating snowmelt processes during rain-on-snow over a semi-arid mountain basin

Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest of North America, significant flooding can occur during mid-winter rain-on-snow events. Warm, wet Pacific storms caused significant floods in the Pacific Northwest in February 1996, January 1997 and January 1998. Rapid melting of the mountain snow cover substantially augmented discharge during these flood events. An energy-balance snowmelt model is used to simulate snowmelt processes during the January 1997 event over a small headwater basin within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in the Owyhee Mountains of southwestern Idaho, U.S.A. This sub-basin is 34% forested (12% fir, 22% aspen and 66% mixed sagebrush (primarily mountain big sagebrush)). Data from paired open and forested experimental sites were used to drive the model. Model-forcing data were corrected for topographic and vegetation canopy effects. The event was preceded by cold, stormy conditions that developed a significant snow cover over the sub-basin. The snow cover at sites protected by forest cover was slightly reduced, while at open sites significant snowmelt occurred. The warm, moist, windy conditions during the flooding event produced substantially higher melt rates in exposed areas, where sensible- and latent-heat exchanges contributed 60–90% of the energy for snowmelt. Simulated snow-cover development and ablation during the model run closely matched measured conditions at the two experimental sites. This experiment shows the sensitivity of snowmelt processes to both climate and land cover, and illustrates how the forest canopy is coupled to the hydrologic cycle in mountainous areas.

A microscopic approach to investigate bacteria under in situ conditions in sea-ice samples

Abstract: Microbial populations and activity within sea ice have been well described based on bulk measurements from melted sea-ice samples. However, melting destroys the micro-environments within the ice matrix and does not allow for examination of microbial populations at a spatial scale relevant to the organism. Here, we describe the development of a new method allowing for microscopic observations of bacteria localized within the three-dimensional network of brine inclusions in sea ice under in situ conditions. Conventional bacterial staining procedures, using the DNA-specific fluorescent stain DAPI, epifluorescence microscopy and image analysis, were adapted to examine bacteria and their associations with various surfaces within microtomed sections of sea ice at temperatures from −2° to −15°C. The utility and sensitivity of the method were demonstrated by analyzing artificial sea-ice preparations of decimal dilutions of a known bacterial culture. When applied to natural, particle-rich sea ice, the method allowed distinction between bacteria and particles at high magnification. At lower magnifications, observations of bacteria could be combined with those of other organisms and with morphology and particle content of the pore space. The method described here may ultimately aid in discerning constraints on microbial life at extremely low temperatures.

Three-dimensional snow images by X-ray microtomography

Abstract: For the first time, three-dimensional (3-D) high-resolution images of snow were obtained using X-ray absorption tomography. Images with a spatial resolution of 10 μm were taken on four different cylindrical snow samples (9 mm high, 9 mm diameter). About 1000 two-dimensional X-ray absorption images were recorded at angular positions of the object around an axis spanning 180°. An appropriate algorithm was then used for these data to reconstruct a 3-D image. In the case of snow, experimental problems have been solved to prepare the samples and prevent both melting and metamorphism of snow during the experiments. This tomographic method provided 3-D data files from which images of 6003 voxels were extracted Several physical parameters of snow microstructure can be processed from these data. Porosity P and discrete local (3-D) curvature C of the grain/pore interface were computed for the four snow samples. Representative elementary volume (REV, in the sense of porous media) is a relevant index to the significance of the sample size with respect to a given parameter. From each image, the values of P and C are compared for subsamples of different size, as an attempt to assess the REVs for porosity and curvature. Results show that the observed volume of snow is statistically significant to achieve the porosity and the curvature distribution.

Dissolved organic matter in Antarctic sea ice

Abstract: Sea ice supports highly dynamic, and at times highly productive assemblages of auto- and heterotrophic organisms. Central to the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen within sea ice is the production and lability of dissolved organic matter (DOM). DOM is produced through excretion, mortality, cell lysis, and amplified by inefficient feeding by grazers. It has been hypothesised that there are significant DOM pools in sea ice systems, although measurements of DOM in sea ice have only rarely been made. The significance of DOM for ice based productivity and carbon turnover therefore remains highly speculative. The dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen (DOC, DON) of sea ice from the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas were investigated in 1992, 1994 and 1997. Measurements were made on melted sea ice sections in 1994 and 1997 and in sea ice brines in 1992. These studies confirm that DOC and DON can reach up to 30 and 8 times higher concentrations compared to those in surface waters, respectively. This DOM tends to be carbon enriched with a mean DOC:DON ratio of 14. Measurements made on a limited data set showed that carbohydrates constitute on average 35% of the DOC pool with highly variable contributions.

The skier's zone of influence in triggering slab avalanches

Abstract: In recent years, most avalanche fatalities have been due to dry-snow slab avalanches triggered by the victims themselves during recreational activities, at least in countries where recreational skiing takes place, as in Western Europe and North America. Simple analysis suggests, and previous measurements have shown, that the skier’s dynamic impact is relevant for triggering, decreasing with increasing depth within the snow cover and depending on the layering of the snow cover. The stress distribution below a skier in the snow cover is not known, but is important in view of the critical area required for fracture propagation preceding dry-snow slab avalanche release. The skier’s zone of influence was measured with load cells buried within the snow cover in a level study plot for different depths. The size of the area of influence is of the order of a few 0.1 m2, but also depends on the weak-layer strength. Stresses in the snow cover below skiers who walk behind each other are not cumulative. The effect on the influence size is in accordance with the independent estimate for the critical size (0.1–1 m) for fracture propagation in the case of rapid loading. It supports the hypothesis that skiers induce a brittle fracture within the weak layer or at a weak interface between layers, leading under certain conditions to slab release, without necessarily hitting a pre-existing flaw.

Platelet ice and the land-fast sea ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

Abstract: Dendritic crystals of platelet ice appear beneath the columnar land-fast sea ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. These leaf-like crystals are frozen into place by the advancing columnar growth. The platelets most probably begin to appear during July although in some parts of the Sound they may not appear at all. In addition, the amount and extent of platelet ice within the Sound varies from year to year. Previous authors have suggested that the formation of platelet ice is linked to the presence of the nearby ice shelf. It is a matter of debate whether these platelets form at depth and then float upwards or whether they grow in slightly supercooled water at the ice/water interface. The phenomenon is similar to that observed in the Weddell Sea region, but previous authors have suggested the two regions may experience different processes. This paper presents the results of field-work conducted in McMurdo Sound in 1999. Ice-structure analysis, isotopic analysis and salinity and temperature measurements near the ice/water interface are presented. Freezing points are calculated, and the possible existence of supercooling is discussed in relation to existing conjectures about the origin of platelets.

Snow-ice accretion and snow-cover depletion on Antarctic first-year sea-ice floes

Abstract: Between austral late winter 1993 and austral autumn 1998, during five cruises aboard the research vessel Nathaniel B. Palmer, almost 300 m of core was obtained from first-year ice floes in the Ross, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Analysis of the texture, stratigraphy and stable-isotopic composition of the ice was used to assess the magnitude of the role of flooding and snow-ice formation at the base of the snowpack in the thickening of the ice cover and the thinning of the snow cover. Snow ice occurred in all ice-thickness categories and made a significant contribution to the total ice mass (12−36%) in both autumn and winter. Although the amount of snow ice was often exceeded by the amount of frazil ice and congelation ice, the thickness of individual layers of each ice type indicated that snow ice often made a greater contribution to the thermodynamic thickening of the ice cover than the other ice types. The larger quantities of frazil ice and congelation ice were primarily the result of dynamic thickening. Flooding and snow-ice formation reduced the snow cover to 42−70% of the total snow accumulation depending on time and location. On the basis of this information, ship-based snow-depth estimates were adjusted to estimate the total snow accumulation on different ice-thickness categories.

Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

Abstract: The SAFRAN/Crocus/MEPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.

Behaviour of dissolved organic matter and inorganic nutrients during experimental sea ice formation.

Abstract: It is well established that during sea-ice formation, crystals aggregate into a solid matrix and dissolved seawater constituents, including inorganic nutrients, are rejected from the ice matrix. However, the behaviour of dissolved organic matter (DOM) during ice formation and growth has not been studied to date. DOM is the primary energetic substrate for microbial heterotrophic activity in seawater and sea ice, and therefore it is at the base of the trophic fluxes within the microbial food web. The aim of our study was to compare the behaviour of DOM and inorganic nutrients during formation and growth of sea ice. Experiments were conducted in an indoor basin at -15*C. Three 1 m3 tanks, to which synthetic seawater, nutrients and dissolved organic compounds (diatom-extracted DOM) had been added, were sampled over a period of 5 days during sea ice formation. Samples were collected throughout the experiment from water underlying the ice, and at the end from the ice as well. Brine was obtained from the ice by centrifuging ice cores. Inorganic nutrients (nitrate and phosphate) were substantially enriched in brine in comparison to water and ice phases, consistent with the processes of ice formation and brine rejection. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was also enriched in brine but was more variable and enriched in comparison to the dilution line. No difference in bacteria numbers was observed between water, ice and brine. No bacteria growth was measured, and therefore had no influence on the DOC levels. We conclude that the incorporation of dissolved organic compounds in newly forming ice is conservative. However, since the proportions of DOC in the brine were partially higher than those of the inorganic nutrients, concentrating effects of DOC in brine might be different compared to salts.

The influence of tree and branch fracture, overturning and debris entrainment on snow avalanche flow

Abstract: Abstract A simple center-of-mass avalanche model that accounts for avalanche flow in forests is presented. The model applies the principle of conservation of energy to calculate the deceleration of avalanches caused by tree fracture, overturning and debris entrainment. The model relates the physical properties of forests (tree spacing, tree age, tree type, soil conditions) to avalanche flow. Modified dry-Coulomb and velocity-dependent friction parameters commonly used in avalanche runout calculations are derived. Example calculations demonstrate how the model can be applied to back-calculate observed avalanche events. The model quantitatively explains why large avalanches can destroy forests without significant deceleration. Furthermore, it shows why tree fracture consume/little of the avalanche’s energy. Finally, the model reveals how protective forests in avalanche tracks can be maintained over time to provide the best protective capacity against snow avalanches.

The albedo of Arctic leads in summer

Abstract: This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by The International Glaciological Society and can be found at: http://www.igsoc.org/annals/.

Measurements of mass balance in dense snow avalanche events

Abstract: Since 1993 the Avalanche Centre of Arabba has managed a test site to determine avalanche-dynamics parameters (Sommavilla and others, 1997; Sommavilla and Sovilla, 1998). The system is located on an avalanche track which is representative for the Dolomites, northern Italy It monitors avalanche pressures, speed, flow height and variations of the avalanche shape and extent. In winter 1997/98, together with the standard measurements, a series of new field measurements and observations of the snow cover on the avalanche path were conducted for the first time in order to accurately determine the avalanche mass balance. The information collected is typical for dense flow avalanches which have small dimension and develop mainly along a channelled path. In winter 1997/98, four events were studied. For each event, in several sections from the starting zone to the deposition zone, manual measurements were carried out in order to investigate mass entrainment and deposition processes. The mass evolution of the avalanche has been determined. It is shown that the avalanche mass increases by up to 720% with respect to the initial release mass. This entrainment process is related to the speed reached by the avalanche front. In addition, it has been determined that during the acceleration phase of the avalanche front the underlying snow cover is mostly eroded and there is no deposition of snow. In the deceleration phase, by contrast, erosion decreases progressively, reaching the value zero, while deposition becomes progressively larger. These results underscore the importance of the mass balance as a fundamental component in avalanche-dynamics research.

Sea-ice growth and water mass modification in the Mertz Glacier Polynya, East Antarctica, during winter

Abstract: In July-September 1999, an extensive oceanographic survey (87 conductivity-, temperature-and depth-measuring stations) was conducted in the Mertz Glacier polynya over the Adelie Depression off the Antarctic coast between 145° and 150° E. We identify and describe four key water masses in this polynya: highly modified circumpolar deep water (HMCDW), winter water (WW), ice-shelf water (ISW) and high-salinity shelf water (HSSW). Combining surface velocity data (from an acoustic Doppler current-profiler) with three hydrographic sections, we found the HMCDW to be flowing westward along the shelf break (0.7 Sv), the WW and HSSW flowing eastwards underneath Mertz Glacier (2.0 Sv) and that there was a westward return flow of ISW against the continent (1.2 Sv). Using a simple box model for the exchanges of heat and fresh water between the principal water masses, we find that the polynya was primarily a latent-heat polynya with 95% of the total heat flux caused by sea-ice formation. This heat flux results from a fresh-water-equivalent sea-ice growth rate of 4.9−7.7 cm d−1 and a mass exchange between HMCDW and WW of 1.45 Sv The inferred ocean heat flux is 8−14 W m−2 and compares well with other indirect estimates.

On the characterization of seismic signals generated by snow avalanches for monitoring purposes

Abstract: Seismic signals from artificially released avalanches were studied in an attempt to characterize them for avalanche-monitoring purposes The seismic signals generated by different sizes and types of avalanches were recorded and analyzed in the time and frequency domains Synchronized recordings of the corresponding seismic signals and the video images of the evolution of the avalanches were obtained together with a detailed cartography Characteristic signatures in the frequency and time domains were found to depend on the characteristics of the avalanche path and measuring location, but to be mostly independent of avalanche size The source of the different parts of the recorded seismic signals was determined A relationship was observed between the avalanche size and the amplitude of the signals Given the presence of local site effects, a prior seismic characterization of the avalanche path in relation to the recording sites is necessary for monitoring purposes Moreover” it was found that sliding slabs in the early phase of acceleration produce little seismic energy, resulting in a time lapse between the observable start of the avalanche and the arrival of the detectable seismic waves at the receiving station

On large-scale shifts in the Arctic Ocean and sea-ice conditions during 1979-98

Abstract: Results from a regional model of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data are analyzed to understand recent climate variability in the region. The primary simulation uses daily-averaged 1979 atmospheric fields repeated for 20 years and then continues with interannual forcing derived from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts for 1979-98. An eastward shift in the ice-ocean circu­ lation, fresh-water distribution and Atlantic Water extent has been determined by compar­ ing conditions between the early 1980s and 1990s. A new trend is modeled in the late 1990s, and has a tendency to return the large-scale sea-ice and upper ocean conditions to their state in the early 1980s. Both the sea-ice and the upper ocean circulation as well as fresh-water export from the Russian shelves and Atlantic Water recirculation within the Eurasian Basin indicate that the Arctic climate is undergoing another shift. This suggests an oscillatory behavior of the Arctic Ocean system. Interannual atmospheric variability appears to be the main and sufficient driver of simulated changes. The ice cover acts as an effective dy­ namic medium for vorticity transfer from the atmosphere into the ocean.

Indirect measurements of the mass balance of summer Arctic sea ice with an electromagnetic induction technique

Abstract: In the framework of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) study indirect, non-invasive icemass-balance measurements were carried out at a drifting station in the northern Chukchi Sea between Mayand August of 1998. Ice thickness was derived from electromagnetic-induction (EM) measurements ofapparent conductivity along 13 profiles (60 to 900 m long). As shown through sensitivity studies with a 1-D model, the apparent conductivity data from individual points can be inverted to yield estimates of icethickness and ablation with an accuracy of approximately 0.05 m (for 2 m thick level ice). Ablation ratesranged between 8 and 18 mm d -1 , with total ablation amounting to roughly 0.9 to 1.2 m. Measurements ofthickness and melt rates along different profiles in undeformed multi-year ice corresponded closely,indicating that the sampling statistics are adequate. The roughness of undeformed ice has been found toincrease during the summer due to deepening of melt ponds and enhanced bottom melt. Ice under melt pondswas disproportionately thinner, most likely a result of thicker snow cover reducing winter accretion.

Characteristics of terrain, snow supply and forest cover for avalanche initiation caused by logging

Abstract: This paper contains statistical analyses of parameters to characterize starting zones of destructive avalanches which have resulted from clear-cut logging in British Columbia, Canada. Data from 76 avalanche sites in the Coast Mountains (western British Columbia) and the Columbia Mountains (eastern British Columbia) are analyzed. The parameters include a selection which characterize snow supply (related to potential avalanche frequency), avalanche magnitude and those which are known to affect ava- lanche formation including terrain features, vegetation density, vegetation height and ground surface roughness. The results provide the data framework for possibly preventing future disasters by altering logging plans.

Flow of dense avalanches past obstructions

Abstract: One means of preventing areas from being hit by avalanches is to divert the flow by straight or curved walls or tetrahedral or cylindrical-type structures. Thus, there arises the question how a given avalanche flow is changed regarding the diverted flow depth and flow direction. In this paper a report is given on laboratory experiments performed for gravity-driven dense granular flows down an inclined plane obstructed by plane wall and tetrahedral wedge. It was observed that these flows are accompanied by shocks induced by the presence of the obstacles. These give rise to a transition from super to subcritical flow of the granular avalanche, associated with depth and velocity changes. It is demonstrated that with an appropriate shock-capturing integration technique for the Savage-Hutter theory, the shock formation for a finite-mass granular flow sliding from an inclined plane into a horizontal run-out zone is well described, as is the shock formation of the granular flow on either side of a tetrahedral protection structure.

Decadal variability in high northern latitudes as simulated by an intermediate-complexity climate model

Abstract: A 2500 year integration has been performed with a global coupled atmospheric-sea-ice-ocean model of intermediate complexity with the main objective of studying the climate variability in polar regions on decadal time-scales and longer. The atmospheric component is the ECBILT model, a spectral T21 three-level quasi-geostrophic model that includes a representation of horizontal and vertical beat transfers as well as of the hydrological cycle. ECBILT is coupled to the CLIO model, which consists of a primitive-equation free-surface ocean general circulation model and a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. Comparison of model results with observations shows that the ECBILT CLIO model is able to reproduce reasonably well the climate of the high northern latitudes. The dominant mode of coupled variability between the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover in the simulation consists of an annular mode for geopotential height at 800 hPa and of a dipole between the Barents and Labrador Seas for the sea-ice concentration which are similar to observed patterns of variability. In addition, the simulation displays strong decadal variability in the sea-ice volume, with a significant peak at about 18 years. Positive volume anomalies are caused by (1) a decrease in ice export through Fram Strait associated with more anticyclonic winds at high latitudes, (2) modifications in the freezing/melting rates in the Arctic due to lower air temperature and higher surface albedo, and (3) a weaker heat flux at the ice base in the Barents and Kara Seas caused by a lower inflow, of warm Atlantic water. Opposite anomalies occur during the volume-decrease phase of the oscillation.

Time-series observations of the structure and properties of brackish ice in the Gulf of Finland

Abstract: The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed brackish water basin where sea ice occurs annually. The sea-ice study discussed here was conducted as a Finnish-Japanese cooperative research programme entitled "Ice Climatology of the Okhotsk and Baltic Seas’’ to investigate the structure and properties of the brackish ice in the Baltic Sea. Ice, snow and water samples were collected at Santala Bay, near the mouth of the Gulf of Finland, once a week from 20 January to 12 April 1999. The salinity and oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of the samples were measured. The ice samples were analyzed stratigraphically. The ice was composed of a granular upper layer, occupying approximately one-third of the entire ice thickness, and underlying columnar ice toward the bottom. The crystallography structure and δ18O values reveal that the granular ice consisted of two layers with different origins, i.e. snow ice and superimposed ice. The fraction of snow relative to the total thickness was estimated. The limited data show a significant contribution of the snow cover to the sea-ice development. The salinity of the granular ice was higher than that of the columnar ice, implying that the mechanism of entrapment of brine may be different between the two ice types.

Winter 1999: a valuable test of the avalanche-hazard mapping procedure in Switzerland

Abstract: In Switzerland three large snowfall periods led to numerous large avalanche events, causing the deaths of 17 people, damage to about 1000 buildings and blockage of many important traffic systems. This situation was a valuable test of the avalanche-hazard mapping procedure developed in Switzerland since the last extreme avalanche winter in 1951. In most cases, the avalanches stopped within the avalanche-hazard zones. However, approximately 40 of about 1200 large avalanche events passed the limits of the existing hazard zones. The primary deficiency was underestimation of the hazard of powder-snow avalanches. The other reason the hazard-zone boundaries were passed was multiple avalanche events in a single track within a short time period. In addition, some fracture depths were larger than those used in avalanche-dynamics calculations. Therefore, the guideline assumptions for defining the fracture depths are questioned. Winter 1999 impressively underlined the danger of avalanches in mountainous regions. It emphasized the importance of avalanche-hazard mapping, showed the existing deficiencies and provided a large amount of field data that will help to improve our knowledge of avalanche dynamics.

A nearest-neighbor model for regional avalanche forecasting

Abstract: The application of nearest-neighbor algorithms to the task of regional avalanche forecasting in Switzerland is presented in this paper. The database used for the development of the model consists of snow and weather data from 60 manual weather stations and conventionally estimated avalanche-hazard levels. All these data are collected by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research on a daily basis during winter. Data between 1987 and 1996 (10 winters) are used for our study. For the manual weather stations a nearest-neighbor model has been developed: NXD-VG calculates the 10 nearest-neighbor days by using a Euclidean weighted distance metric. A regional avalanche-hazard map is calculated by interpolating the results of NXD-VG between the stations. The avalanche forecasters can access the results of the model calculation directly because they are integrated into a program for bulletin construction. The model was validated using three complementary approaches. First, the database is cross-validated for all the winters available to estimate an unbiased prediction error of the models for two selected stations. Second, selected situations of the database are recalculated. Third, the model output is compared daily to the official forecasts published during winter 1999/2000.

Temporal evolution of Arctic sea-ice temperature

Abstract: Vertical profiles of temperature from the air through the snow and ice and into the upper ocean were measured over an annual cycle, from October 1997 to October 1998, as part of a study of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA). These observations were made at nine locations, including young ice, ponded ice, undeformed ice, a hummock, a consolidated ridge and a new blocky ridge. All of the sites had similar environmental forcing, with air temperatures at the different sites typically within 1°C. In general, the seasonal evolution of ice temperature followed a pattern of (1) a cold front propagating down through the ice in the fall, (2) cold ice temperatures and ice growth in late fall, winter and early spring, and (3) warming to the freezing point in the summer. Within this general pattern, there was considerable spatial variability in the temperature profiles, particularly during winter. For example, snow/ice interface temperatures varied by as much as 30°C between sites. The coldest ice temperatures were observed in a consolidated ridge with a thin snow cover, while the warmest were in ponded ice. The warm pond temperatures were a result of two factors: the initial cooling in the fall was retarded by freezing of pond water, and the depressed surface of the pond was quickly covered by a deep layer of snow (0.6 m). In an 8 m thick unconsolidated ridge, the cold front did not penetrate to the ice bottom during winter, and a portion of the interior remained below freezing during the summer. The spatial variability in snow depth and ice conditions can result in situations where there is significant horizontal transport of heat.

Avalanche extremes and atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract: Avalanche forecasters can better anticipate avalanche extremes if they understand the relationships between those extremes and atmospheric circulation patterns. We investigated the relationship between extreme avalanche days and atmospheric circulation patterns at four sites in the western United States: Bridger Bowl, Montana; Jackson Hole, Wyoming; Alta, Utah; and Taos, New Mexico. For each site, we calculated a daily avalanche hazard index based on the number and size of avalanches, and we defined abnormal avalanche events as the top 10% of days with recorded avalanche activity. We assessed the influence of different variables on avalanche extremes, and found that high snow water equivalent and high snowfall correspond most closely to days of high avalanche hazard. Composite-anomaly maps of 500 hPa heights during those avalanche extremes clearly illustrate that spatial patterns of anomalous troughing prevail, though the exact position of the troughing varies between sites. These patterns can be explained by the topography of the western United States, and the low-elevation pathways for moisture that exist to the west of each of the sites. The methods developed for this research can be applied to other sites with long-term climate and avalanche databases to further our understanding of the spatial distribution of atmospheric patterns associated with extreme avalanche days.

Simulation of pancake-ice dynamics in a wave field

Abstract: From many field observations, it has become well known that pancake ice is ubiquitous in a wave-dominated sea. These strikingly uniform circular floes are consistently found in the Antarctic seas during the ice-formation season. Their presence has also been reported in the Bering Sea, the Greenland Sea and in polynyas and leads within pack ice. In one estimate made by P. Wadhams (personal communication, 1991) the areal coverage of pancake ice in the Southern Ocean marginal ice zone is around 6 × 106 km2. Pancake ice forms through a combination of thermodynamic growth and mechanical thickening, caused by rafting of floes that is driven by wave motion This complex growth process is much faster than pure thermodynamic growth and hence may be the main factor responsible for ice-edge advance in marginal ice zones. In this paper we simulate wave/ice-floe dynamics by combining a new three-dimensional discrete element model with wave hydrodynamics. In one set of simulations we calculate ice-drift speed as a function of wave amplitude and ice collisional dynamics. In a second set of simulations we place a non-reflecting vertical barrier meant to simulate the fast-ice edge. The simulation results show the rate of increase of the ice impact force on the barrier, and the accompanying thickening of the rafted region in front of the barrier, as a function of wave amplitude. Results from this study will help quantify the formation process for pancake-ice covers in a wave field.