Showing papers in "Annual Review of Energy and The Environment in 1999"

BIOMASS ETHANOL: Technical Progress, Opportunities, and Commercial Challenges

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Ethanol made from lignocellulosic biomass sources, such as agricultural and forestry residues and herbaceous and woody crops, provides unique environmental, economic, and strategic benefits. Through sustained research funding, primarily by the U.S. Department of Energy, the estimated cost of biomass ethanol production has dropped from ∼$4.63/gallon in 1980 to ∼$1.22/gallon today, and it is now potentially competitive for blending with gasoline. Advances in pretreatment by acid-catalyzed hemicellulose hydrolysis and enzymes for cellulose breakdown coupled with recent development of genetically engineered bacteria that ferment all five sugars in biomass to ethanol at high yields have been the key to reducing costs. However, through continued advances in accessing the cellulose and hemicellulose fractions, the cost of biomass ethanol can be reduced to the point at which it is competitive as a pure fuel without subsidies. A major challenge to realizing the great benefits of biomass ethanol remains ...

Prospects for building a hydrogen energy infrastructure

Abstract: ▪ Abstract About two-thirds of primary energy today is used directly as transportation and heating fuels. Any discussion of energy-related issues, such as air pollution, global climate change, and energy supply security, raises the issue of future use of alternative fuels. Hydrogen offers large potential benefits in terms of reduced emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases and diversified primary energy supply. Like electricity, hydrogen is a premium-quality energy carrier, which can be used with high efficiency and zero emissions. Hydrogen can be made from a variety of feedstocks, including natural gas, coal, biomass, wastes, solar sources, wind, or nuclear sources. Hydrogen vehicles, heating, and power systems have been technically demonstrated. Key hydrogen end-use technologies such as fuel cells are making rapid progress toward commercialization. If hydrogen were made from renewable or decarbonized fossil sources, it would be possible to have a large-scale energy system with essentially no emissio...

FUEL CELLS: Reaching the Era of Clean and Efficient Power Generation in the Twenty-First Century

Abstract: ▪ Abstract This chapter on fuel cells covers the following topics: (a) fundamental electrochemical aspects and performance analysis; (b) technology research and development and demonstrations of fuel cell power sources for power generation, transportation, portable power, and space applications; (c) the role of fuel cells vs competing technologies, and (d) prospects for the applications and commercialization of fuel cell technologies in the twenty-first century. Although the fuel cell was invented in the nineteenth century, the twentieth century has been the period for technology development rather than widespread use. The fuel cell faces a great deal of competition in the proposed applications of power generation, transportation, and portable power. Significant work is still necessary, but intensified research and development activities could lead to the dawn of fuel cell commercialization and widespread use in the early part of the twenty-first century.

A review of technical change in assessment of climate policy

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Climate policy is often discussed as a lever with which to bring about climate-friendly technical innovation and diffusion. However, quantitative policy assessments routinely treat technological change as a factor that is independent of policy. Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 cannot be achieved through marginal changes in the way we supply and use energy. The only path to stabilization of climate over the next century that is consistent with widely accepted population and economic-growth scenarios involves substantial decoupling of energy services from carbon emissions. The required rate of structural and technical change for such a goal has been experienced only in the wake of economic and resource crises and for periods of a decade or less. Historic rates of structural and technical change averaged over a century are far from adequate for stabilizing climate. In this paper, we review technical changes in the energy system and a few instances in which energy economic models have ...

MODELING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: Implications for the Global Environment

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Technology largely determines economic development and its impact on the environment; yet technological change is one of the least developed parts of existing global change models. This paper reviews two approaches developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, both of which use the concept of technological learning and aid modeling of technological change. The first approach is a micromodel (“bottom-up”) of three electricity generation technologies that rigorously endogenizes technological change by incorporating both uncertainty (stochasticity) and learning into the model's decision rules. This model, with its endogenous technological change, allows radical innovations to penetrate the energy market and generates S-shaped patterns of technological diffusion that are observed in the real world. The second approach is a macro (“top-down”) model that consists of coupled economic- and technological-system models. Although more stylistic in its representation of endogenous ...

Non-co2 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Although global warming is generally linked to increasing levels of carbon dioxide, there are many other gases produced from industrial, agricultural, and energy-generating sources that can also cause the Earth's temperature to rise. Individually these gases are not likely to make a significant contribution, but, taken together, it is believed that they can rival the effects of carbon dioxide. This paper reviews the current trends of the most abundant or the most effective of these non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Methane, nitrous oxide, and the major chlorofluorocarbons (F-11 and F-12) have been the most notable greenhouse gases other than CO2. Although these gases will continue to play a role in global warming, new compounds are likely to become increasingly important. These include the fluorocarbon replacement compounds in the hydrofluorocarbon and the hydrochlorofluorocarbon groups and gases that are nearly inert in the atmosphere, persisting for thousands of years, such as the perfluorocarbons an...

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ALONG THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO BORDER: Drivers of Change and Responses of Citizens and Institutions

Abstract: ▪ Abstract The US-Mexico border region illustrates the challenges of binational environmental management in the context of a harsh physical environment, rapid growth, and economic integration. Transboundary and shared resources and conflicts include limited surface water supplies, depletion of groundwater, air and water pollution, hazardous waste, and conservation of important natural ecosystems. Public policy responses to environmental problems on the border include binational institutions such as the IBWC, BECC and CEC, the latter two established in response to environmental concerns about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Environmental social movements and nongovernmental organizations have also become important agents in the region. These new institutions and social movements are especially interesting on the Mexican side of the border where political and economic conditions have often limited environmental enforcement and conservation, and where recent policy changes also include chang...

THE ART OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY: Protecting the Environment with Better Technology

Abstract: ▪ Abstract After a first career as Professor of Physics, University of California at Berkeley, working in experimental particle physics at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), I was prompted by the 1973 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo to switch to improving energy end-use efficiency, particularly in buildings. I cofounded and directed the Energy Efficient Buildings program at LBNL, which later became the Center for Building Science. At the Center we developed high-frequency solid-state ballasts for fluorescent lamps, low-emissivity and selective windows, and the DOE-2 computer program for the energy analysis and design of buildings. The ballasts in turn stimulated Philips lighting to produce compact fluorescent lamps. When they achieve their expected market share, energy savings from products started or developed at the Center for Building Sciences are projected to save American consumers $30 billion/year, net of the cost of the better buildings and products. In t...

Methods for attributing ambient air pollutants to emission sources

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Six methods for attributing ambient pollutants to emission sources are reviewed: emissions analysis, trend analysis, tracer studies, trajectory analysis, receptor modeling, and dispersion modeling. The ranges of applicability, types of information provided, limitations, performance capabilities, and areas of active research of the different methods are compared. For primary, nonreactive pollutants whose effects of concern occur on a global scale, an accounting of emissions rates by source type and location largely characterizes source contributions. For other pollutants or smaller spatial scales, accurate estimates of emissions are needed for identifying the emissions reduction potentials of possible control measures and as inputs to dispersion models. Emission levels are frequently known with factor-of-two accuracy or worse, and improved estimates are needed for dispersion modeling. The analysis of regional or urban-scale trends in emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations can provide qua...

HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS: An Emerging Public Health Problem with Possible Links to Human Stress on the Environment

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Of the thousands of species of microalgae that form the base of the marine food chain, only a small number are toxic or harmful. However, when these toxic species proliferate, they can cause massive kills of fish and shellfish, mortality among marine mammals and seabirds, substantive alterations of marine habitats, and human illness and death. Currently, six distinct human clinical syndromes associated with harmful algal blooms are recognized: ciguatera fish poisoning, paralytic shellfish poisoning, neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, amnesic shellfish poisoning, and Pfiesteria-associated syndrome. Human illnesses are caused by toxins produced by these microorganisms, acquired either by passage through the food chain or direct skin or respiratory contact. Syndromes frequently include debilitating neurologic manifestations and, in some instances, may progress to death. There is a perception among investigators that the number of harmful algal blooms is increasing, as ...

How much is energy research & development worth as insurance?

Abstract: ▪ Abstract In this paper, we estimate the value of energy technology research and development (R&D) as an insurance investment to reduce four risks to the United States. These four risks are (a) the costs of climate stabilization, (b) oil price shocks and cartel pricing, (c) urban air pollution, and (d) other energy disruptions. The total value is estimated conservatively to be >$12 billion/year. However, only about half of this total may be warranted because some R&D is applicable to more than one risk. Nevertheless, the total Department of Energy investment in energy technology R&D [∼$1.5 billion/year in fiscal year 1999 (FY99)] seems easily justified by its insurance value alone. In fact, a larger investment might be justified, particularly in the areas related to climate change, oil price shock, and urban air pollution. This conclusion appears robust even if the private sector is assumed to be investing a comparable amount relevant to these risks. No additional benefit is credited for the value to the...

The economics of “when” flexibility in the design of greenhouse gas abatement policies

Abstract: ▪ Abstract This paper focuses on the desirability, from an economic perspective, of setting fixed and relatively short-term targets and timetables, such as those contained in the Kyoto Protocol, as a means of achieving longer-term climate change mitigation goals. The paper argues that whatever long-term policy goals are adopted, greater flexibility lowers implementation costs. Lower implementation costs, in turn, increases the likelihood that the policies will actually be followed and the goals achieved. Importantly, the Kyoto Protocol incorporates key elements of both “what” and “where” flexibility. That is, the “Kyoto basket” includes all six of the major greenhouse gases plus sinks, and the Protocol incorporates several mechanisms that allow emission reductions to take place at the least-cost geographic location, regardless of nation-state boundaries. The Protocol also provides substantial “how” flexibility in the sense that countries can use a variety of means to achieve domestic policy goals. However...

ECONOMIC GROWTH, LIBERALIZATION, AND THE ENVIRONMENT: A Review of the Economic Evidence

Abstract: ▪ Abstract This paper reviews the empirical evidence for the following five hypotheses from the economic growth-liberalization-pollution debate: (a) economic growth will lead to a worsening pollution problem; (b) tighter environmental regulation will reduce economic growth; (c) trade liberalization will exacerbate environmental degradation, especially in developing countries with weak environmental protection; (d) tighter environmental protection in the developed countries will lead to a loss of competitiveness compared with that of countries with lower standards, especially in polluting industries; and (e) tighter environmental protection in the developed countries will lead to relocation of investment to developing countries with lax regulation, especially in polluting industries (the pollution haven hypothesis). Overall, the evidence for these hypotheses is found to be ambiguous and weak. It is further suggested that the growth-liberalization-environment empirical literature has neglected three importa...

IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN: Environmental Technologies Enhance Conventional Hydropower's Role in Sustainable Development

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Conventional hydroelectric generation uses a renewable energy source and currently supplies ∼10% of the annual output of electricity in the United States and ∼20% of electricity generated worldwide. To provide a significant contribution to sustainable development, the hydropower industry must address a variety of environmental concerns, including water quality and fish passage issues. The paper discusses new technologies for turbine design and control systems to improve dissolved oxygen levels in turbine discharges and survival of fish during turbine passage. The paper describes development, testing, and test results for these technologies, with an emphasis on collaboration of stakeholders and balance between environmental stewardship and economical power production.

A review of national emissions inventories from select non-annex I countries : Implications for counting sources and sinks of carbon

Abstract: ▪ Abstract A total of 176 countries have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, thereby agreeing to limit emissions of greenhouse gases that threaten to interfere with the Earth's climate. While compliance procedures are being developed, the best indicators of implementation of the Convention are the emissions inventories of greenhouse gases that member countries must submit to the Convention as part of their national communications. We review some of the first emissions inventories from non–Annex I (developing) countries. We focus on land-use change and forestry because these activities are responsible for the major emissions of carbon in many non-Annex I parties, and because they are the only activities with the potential to remove carbon from the atmosphere and sequester it on land. The review shows first, that some developing countries have already begun to reduce emissions and second, that there are significant discrepancies between the data used in the emissions inventor...

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: Examination of a Contentious Subject

Abstract: ▪ Abstract The worldwide future of nuclear energy is a highly disputed subject; one side is certain that nuclear energy will have to expand in the next century to meet energy demand, whereas the other side is equally certain that this energy form is too dangerous and uneconomical to be of longer-term use. By looking at the way such beliefs are formed, the history of nuclear power, and the energy scene in the next century, this paper tests both points of view and concludes that both are flawed, but there is a strong case for keeping the option for nuclear expansion open. Yet, there has to be doubt whether today's technology is adequate for such expansion. There are alternative technologies under development that may make nuclear power more acceptable; however, although there is the time to develop such new processes, the question has to be asked whether such work can be funded, unless public opposition to nuclear power can be reduced and international collaboration improved. The long-term future of nuclear...

HIGH-LEVEL NUCLEAR WASTE: The Status of Yucca Mountain

Abstract: ▪ Abstract Yucca Mountain, NV, is being characterized for disposal of U.S. high-level nuclear waste, which consists predominantly of spent fuel from nuclear reactors and radioactive waste from reprocessing. In this paper, the program is presented in the context of global and U.S. nuclear energy systems and of international plans for high-level waste disposal. The potential impact of the proposed repository is discussed in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment, the primary tool for assessing how the repository might operate.

Nuclear power economic performance : Challenges and opportunities

Abstract: ▪ Abstract In the last decade, the economics of existing nuclear power plants have improved in the United States and worldwide. Further economic improvements could be realized by better management of planned outages, understanding of unplanned outages, resource sharing among several plants, and more efficient use of nuclear fuel. Dry spent-fuel storage has removed the limitation of on-site storage caused by the limited size of the originally designed storage pools. However, delays and uncertainty about the date by which the national U.S. program will receive the spent fuel have significant financial penalties that could be mitigated if a central interim facility were established to receive spent fuel. Furthermore, a higher incentive for spent-fuel minimization could be obtained if the waste fees were based on spent-fuel volume rather than on electricity sales. Introducing thorium into the fuel cycle has the potential to improve the economics of the fuel cycle while reducing the volume of spent fuel and im...

Ethics and international business

Abstract: ▪ Abstract The activities of oil and other energy companies are increasingly being challenged by nongovernmental organizations and media to justify their behavior in ethical terms. Activities that visibly damage the environment have long been challenged by advocacy groups. In recent years public interest has broadened into calls to respect “sustainability,” human rights, and other ethical imperatives. This article attempts to set these developments in the context of international promotion of the idea of a global “civil society.” Ethical codes reach, by persuasion, beyond coercive legal obligations. They have the character and role of “repeated games.” Codes of behavior for business are rooted in national and cultural values, which may conflict at the international level. However, many governments following the lead of the United States are often developing sanctions to promote ethical behavior by businesses, to redress the failure of markets to manage common access to resources and to protect aspects of ...

On the Road to Global Ecology

Abstract: This review presents a personal view of the development of plant physiological ecology, the science of studying biological diversity, and the functioning of the Earth as a system. The need for interaction among these disciplines is becoming increasingly urgent as we are faced with the challenge of “managing” the Earth system that is increasingly impacted by the activities of humans.