Showing papers in "Canadian Journal of Political Science in 1976"

Studying Public Policy

Abstract: L'auteur evalue et critique les approches les plus recentes utilisees dans l'etude des politiques publiques et formule un cadre de reference pour la conduite future d'une telle etude. Apres avoir demontre les limites inherentes aux etudes de cas ainsi qu'aux approches fondees sur la prise de decision, lesquelles sont surtout axees sur des preoccupations propres soit a l'administration publique, soit a l'analyse des politiques (« policy analysis »), il suggere que l'etude des politiques doit tenir compte d'un eventail plus large de facteurs politiques et institutionnels qu'elle ne l'a fait jusqu'a present, de facon, notamment, a ce que la determination des politiques (« policy-making ») ne refere plus simplement au reglement des problemes (« problem-solving »), mais aussi a la competition et aux conflits qui les ont engendres.Selon l'auteur, l'etude comparative des politiques publiques devrait en premier lieu bien identifier l'etendue de l'action gouvernementale, les moyens dont le gouvernement dispose pour atteindre ses objectifs et la repartition des benefices et des couts resultant de ses activites. Un examen critique des divers modeles utilises pour expliquer ces trois dimensions lui permet de conclure que l'utilite de chacun des modeles est restreinte a des aspects bien particuliers des politiques publiques, si bien qu'aucun d'entre eux ne permet, a lui seul, d'en fournir une explication adequate.

Theoretical Approaches to Political Support

Abstract: Meme si, au cours de la derniere decade, de tres nombreux travaux empiriques ont porte sur les problemes relatifs au soutient politique, les approches theoriques susceptibles d'engendrer par la suite des theories partielles du soutient ont ete relativement rares, et cela en depit du fait que cette notion ait depuis toujours permeabilise la recherche en politique. L'auteur examine ici les idees de Parsons concernant le support politique dans l'espoir qu'une meilleure comprehension des problemes non encore resolus permettra de proceder plus rapidement et plus surement a l'elaboration d'une theorie valable a ce sujet.

The Diffusion of Legislation among the Canadian Provinces: A Statistical Analysis *

Abstract: Selon la nature de 25 lois adoptees par leur legislature, les provinces canadiennes se voient attribuer un score de « socialisme » et de « liberalisme ». A l'aide de la correlation et de la regression, l'auteur tente d'expliquer ces scores par plusieurs variables independantes de nature socio-economique (niveau de richesse, d'urbanisation et d'industrialisation) et politique (l'ideologie des partis, la carte electorale et la taille de la fonction publique). Il appert que ces variables determinent, de facon significative, la legislation dans les provinces canadiennes.

The Bases of Parti Québécois Support in Recent Quebec Elections

Abstract: From the mid-thirties through the sixties, Quebec provincial politics consisted largely of a two-party struggle between the Liberals and the Union nationale. Some other contenders appeared from time to time such as the Bloc populaire in 1944 and the Union des Electeurs in 1948. From them through to the mid-sixties, third parties and independents gained only a minuscule portion of the total vote. But in 1966 one saw the emergence of two new parties, the Rassemblement pour l'Ind&pendance nationale and the Ralliement national. In 1970 these yielded place to the Parti qu6b6cois and the Ralliement cr6ditiste, with the former surpassing the Union nationale in its share of the total vote. In 1973, the Parti qu6becois increased its share of the vote over its 1970 total and unambiguously replaced the Union nationale as the "second party" of the province. The Liberals also increased their share of the vote to gain a clear majority. The Cr6ditistes suffered a slight loss, falling from 11.2 to 9.7 per cent, while the once mighty Union nationale fell to a mere 5 per cent of the total. The shape of Quebec party politics has clearly been drastically altered.1 The question arises as to what lies behind this change. To answer that question it is necessary to raise two others: what kinds of people support the various parties? And, what are their reasons for doing so? This article will attempt to answer the first of these questions. A second one (see article in note 30) will deal with voter reactions to the various issues in the 1973 campaign. Possibly the most frequently discussed factor in analyses of party support is one called "class." The Quebec context is no exception to this rule. One of the commonplace observations about the Quebec scene is that the Liberal party is the party of the dominant business and financial interests. A frequently heard correlate is that the Parti qu6b6cois, the party which offers a social-democratic program as well as the independence option, receives its support from the working class of the

Voting, Election Interest, and Age: National Findings for English and French Canadians

Abstract: A common finding in cross-sectional survey studies of adult political activity in the US and several other democratic states is a curvilinear or approximate normal curve relationship between age and voting and political interest: young adults are less likely to turn out to vote and be interested in politics, middle-aged persons (in their late forties and early fifties) are more likely to vote and report election interest, and elderly persons are less likely to show involvement on either count (though they are often reported to be as active as young adults). This is a rather widely cited phenomenon in prepositional inventories by political scientists, political sociologists, and social gerontologists. These age relationships have been interpreted as support for the idea that voting activity and interest in elections generally increase from young adulthood through middle age and then decrease for those past middle age, though perhaps not to the level characteristic of very young adults.

The “Great Society” and the “Open Society”: Liberalism in Hayek and Popper

Abstract: Hayek soutient que le liberalisme de sa « Grande Societe » correspond aux conceptions mises de l'avant par Popper dans The Open Society and Its Enemies. Par ailleurs, Popper pretend voir une affinite entre sa propre pensee et divers travaux qui se situent dans la meme tradition que celle a laquelle appartient Hayek. Il appert cependant que les choses sont plus complexes qu'elles n'apparaissent a premiere vue car la « Grande Societe » et la « Societe ouverte » representent des courants distincts et, sous certains aspects, contradictoires de la pensee liberate. De plus, la signification politique de chacun de ces concepts est ambigiie. L'auteur tente de demontrer comment la diversite de la tradition liberate a ete masquee par un manque de discernement dans l'utilisation de certains mots et par l'emprunt errone de certains themes scientifiques.

Private Government, Property, and Professionalism

Abstract: which govern the acquisition and the application of specialized knowledge? What conceptual tools allow us to analyse the functioning of these institutions at present and to predict their future evolution? To raise these issues in most modern states is to call for an analysis of professionalism. For in these political systems the authority to prescribe and police the rules which govern the uses of specialized knowledge has been delegated by the state to professional groups. Political scientists have not neglected the importance of this phenomenon, but their analysis has been limited by their choice of conceptual tools. They have approached the study of professional bodies armed with the concept of "private government." Our argument here is that, although this approach has some merit, a concept of "property" is considerably more powerful. The private government concept, with its essentially pluralist bias, tends to focus our attention upon procedural questions of the internal political processes and external accountability of professional bodies. The concept of property, on the other hand, directs our attention to substantive as well as procedural questions of group-state relationships, and helps us to analyse interand intra-professional ideological divisions. Furthermore, it is much more useful in alerting us to the nature of the growing challenges to professional power and in predicting the future evolution of the institutions which regulate the acquisition and application of specialized knowledge.

The Elusive Marxism of C.B. Macpherson

Abstract: Selon Macpherson, le capitalisme liberal et democratique ne saurait etre reforme. Il doit plutot ceder la place a une societe socialiste veritablement democratique. Bien que la conception macphersonienne de la societe socialiste est generalement percue comme etant fondamentalement identique a celle de Marx, l'auteur discerne chez Macpherson certaines influences du liberalisme. Si, a son avis, Macpherson est un marxiste traditionnel en ce qui concerne son ethique, sa sociologie, son epistemologie et sa vision sociale, il s'ecarte de cette tradition lorsqu'il concoit la transition entre capitalisme et socialisme puisqu'il remplace la theorie marxiste de la revolution proletarienne par un scenario ou s'entremelent des « ruptures »(breakdowns) dans le systeme politique et des « percees » (breakthroughs) dans la conscience publique.Cette divergence, l'auteur l'explique par le fait que le liberalisme de Macpherson l'empeche d'accepter la coercition generale de la classe capitaliste qu'entrainerait inevitablement la revolution proletarienne. Ainsi, demeure irresolue l'enigme de la transformation socialiste des societes capitalistes, liberales et democratiques.

Humanist Democracy and Elusive Marxism: A Response to Minogue and Svacek

Abstract: Macpherson repond aux critiques formulees a l'egard de sa theorie par Svacek et Minogue. Il trouve l'analyse de Svacek minutieusement exacte et lui repond que s'il n'accepte pas la theorie marxiste de la transition revolutionnaire ni ne propose de theorie alternative, c'est premierement parce que des circonstances nouvelles permettent de douter que la revolution soit la seule voie vers le socialisme, ce que Marx lui-meme, selon le Grundrisse, n'a pas toujours necessairement cru et, deuxiemement, que la formulation d'une theorie alternative requererait de nombreuses recherches empiriques qu'il ne se juge pas apte a entreprendreQuant a Minogue qui lui avait reproche de tout ramener a un principe unique et tres abstrait qui permettait d'eviter les vrais problemes et presentait la vie humaine en termes purement mecaniques, Macpherson replique que (a) l'abstraction conceptuelle est necessaire pour depasser les apparences et justifiee quand les nouveaux concepts sont appliques a des phenomenes observables comme il l'a fait; (b) qu'il n'a pas emascule le sens habituel du mot « democratie » afin de l'englober plus facilement dans un principe unique; (c) que son concept fondamental de « democratie en developpement » est de nature ethique, et non mecanique, et ne se presente sous forme quantitative qu'afin d'en rendre efficace l'utilisation analytique; et (d) que Minogue ne comprend pas le concept de « pouvoir extractif », sans doute parce qu'il offre des resistances au niveau d'abstraction de Macpherson.

Party Strategy and Party Identification: Some Patterns of Partisan Allegiance

Abstract: The concept of party identification, or a loyalty to a political party different from the vote in any single election, has been one of the most widely used, and useful, for the study of voting choice. It was developed first for the analysis of American politics but it has now been much employed in studies of voting in other nations.' However, while being widely adopted, it has also elicited some criticism which has called the validity of the concept, or at least its relevance, into question.2 This critical view has predominated in Canada as well, although some arguments have emerged on the support side.3 One aspect of the controversy is the conceptualization of party identification. It will be argued here that some of the concerns about utility and relevance are eliminated when the conceptual question is directly faced. It will be shown that one formulation permits the employment of the concept in both "multi-party systems that are apparently undergoing great change"4 and in the more stable

Prime Ministerial Character: An Examination of Mackenzie King's Political Leadership

Abstract: Mackenzie King est generalement percu comme ayant ete un leader passif, en ce sens qu'il laissait les evenements dicter le cours de ses actions. A l'aide de la theorie de James David Barber sur la personnalite des leaders politiques, l'auteur tente d'evaluer le bien-fonde de ce jugement. Cette theorie fait appel a trois facteurs: l'image que le politicien se fait de lui-meme (laquelle remonte a son enfance), sa vision du monde (mise au point lors de son adolescence) et son style (etabli en debut d'âge adulte). Il serait alors possible de predire le comportement d'un politicien a partir des tendances qu'il a developpees au tout debut de sa carriere. On peut ainsi prevoir, de facon generate, ce que fera un politicien dans des situations critiques si l'on est informe avec precision sur la methode qu'il emploie pour prendre des decisions, c'est-a-dire sur les considerations qu'il a tendance a retenir et sur le type de conseil qu'il a tendance a accepter au cours de la prise de decision. Les donnees analysees par l'auteur, qui proviennent essentiellement des memoires de Mackenzie King, l'amenent a suggerer qu'il serait plus adequat de considerer ce dernier plutot comme un politicien actif que comme un politicien passif.

Social Contract: Interpretation and Misinterpretation

Abstract: L'interpretation habituelle du contractualisme social se fonde sur un syllogisme dont l'acte volontaire et arbitraire de consentement constitue la pierre d'achoppement. Pour interpreter le contrat social, l'auteur presente un nouveau syllogisme, le « contrat impute », lequel repose en grande partie sur un raisonnement propre aux adeptes de la loi naturelle et dont la logique echappe aux critiques et objections formulees a l'encontre du contractualisme classique. En laissant de cote le faux concept de « contrat original », cette nouvelle approche restitue a la pensee contractualiste son fondement authentique et permet de comprendre pourquoi le mythe du contrat social, maintenant cavalierement ecarte, a ete longtemps tenu pour un concept serieux de la philosophie politique.

Justice and the Question of Regimes in Ancient and Modern Political Philosophy: Aristotle and Hobbes*

Abstract: En analysant les fondements justificatifs qu'Aristote et Hobbes accordent aux divers droits a gouverner, l'auteur entend mieux faire comprendre l'une des grandes distinctions entre les sciences politiques ancienne et moderne. Il demontre qu'Aristote considerait les divers droits a gouverner a la lumiere de la notion de justice alors que la definition que Hobbes donne de la justice ne permet pas de juger de ces droits a leur merite. Le rapport que ce dernier etablit entre equite et justice, fonde sur sa comprehension des origines de la societe civile, l'amene, selon l'auteur, a soustraire du domaine de la justice la question de la legitimite des regimes politiques. L'auteur suggere enfin que la signification profonde de la pensee de Hobbes a ce sujet tient a sa facon de concevoir le besoin naturel qu'a l'homme d'une communaute politique, conception qui differe sensiblement de celle d'Aristote.

Obligation, Consent, and Locke's Right to Revolution: “Who Is to Judge?”

Abstract: La justification de l'obligation politique dans la theorie du consentement requiert que ce consentement soit fonde sur l'accomplissement de certains objectifs (tel la preservation de la propriete) faute de quoi il peut etre retire, l'autorite politique ayant perdu sa legitimite. Bien que l'on ait traditionnellement considere Locke comme etant le principal interprete de la theorie liberale du consentement, ses Deux Traites demontrent qu'il s'opposait a ce que des individus puissent retirer leur consentement, c'est-a-dire faire la revolution. Pour lui, en effet, le maintien de la societe requiert que les individus transferent a la majorite le droit de juger des abus de confiance commis par les gouvernants. Il devient alors possible que des gouvernants astucieux evitent l'avenement d'une revolution sanctionnee par la majorite en satisfaisant les interets de diverses coalitions majoritaires. De la sorte, les individus qui veulent retirer leur consentement en pretendant que leurs droits ont ete violes, peuvent etre traites de mecontents deraisonnables qui mettent en danger la stabilite sociale. Locke ne saurait done etre considere comme un theoricien du consentement puisque sa conception du consentement aboutit a sacrifier les droits des individus au profit des interets de la majorite.

The Effects of Chain Ownership on Editorial Coverage: The Case of the 1974 Canadian Federal Election

Abstract: effect that chain ownership of large metropolitan dailies may have on influencing the amount, type, and interpretation of news disseminated to the public.' The issue of the effects of chain ownership has been examined empirically in the United States, and studies confirm the hypothesis that chains do indeed influence the editorial positions of member newspapers.2 This note examines through content analysis the effects of chain ownership on editorial treatment of issues, political institutions, and political leaders in the context of the 1974 election. We have chosen the editorial as the most overt indicator of the views of the

A Reinterpretation of Canadian-American Relations

Abstract: relations as evidenced by crowded library shelves, colourful paperbacks in bookstores,' and an increasing number of studies dealing with the relative merits of various models and approaches.2 Most of the publications tend to be descriptive which, given the present state of research in the area, is appropriate since careful description and categorization logically stands in an antecedent relationship to more sophisticated kinds of analysis.3 But even while we describe we must also seek to generalize and theorize. In this article I shall attempt to demonstrate the inadequacy of the conventional approaches to Canadian-American relations, proffer an alternative conceptualization involving systems analysis, specifically continental subsystem dominance, and suggest concluding hypotheses warranting further research.

The Future of the European Community in International Politics

Abstract: The December 1973 conference of European Community heads of state and government may, in retrospect, be viewed either as a futile attempt to save the Community or as a milestone in the history of international politics. Reacting to the desperate energy supply situation caused by the previous autumn's renewal of the Mideast War, the members of the recently enlarged EC attempted to develop a Community response to a common problem.' Though the results of the meetings disappointed many observers who expected a greater show of strength and unity, the Community members did, for the first time, address as a unit issues of a magnitude sufficient to threaten the vital interests of all the states concerned. "Summit" meetings in September and December of 1974 and subsequent meetings of the European Council following its foundation in Dublin, 10-11 March 1975,2 have revealed an increasing tendency within the EC to intensify overt political cooperation in the face of externally generated economic and political pressures. During the same period, the positive outcome of the British referendum on continuance of Community participation virtually assured the Ec possession of the basic elements of great power status. The realization of this potential, which depends upon the harnessing of these "elements of power" to a common external policy, is the subject of this inquiry. The external political future of the European Community is currently a focus of attention for students of international politics, law, and organization. To these observers, academics and practitioners alike, who maintain constant familiarity with the nature of participants in international political processes, the partial eclipse of the external economic policies of important economic powers such as France, Germany, and Great Britain and the harnessing of their capacities to Community foreign economic policies has already had obvious effects within the limited area of international trade and finance. Should these developments be complemented by the formation of an integrated European external policy, the form and intensity of participation by the EC's nine member states in this new role will critically affect the basic structure of international politics in the near and middle term. Formation of a European "personality" capable of promoting and defending Community interests via the generation and execution of cohesive external policies would certainly affect the future of Atlantic and Eastern bloc politics. Moreover, the prospect of another major political entity participating in

Humanist Democracy: The Political Thought of C.B. Macpherson

Abstract: Bien que le principe fondamental qui sous-tend la pensee de C.B. Macpherson soil quelquefois appele « democratie », son sens veritable est mieux traduit par la description alternative qui en est faite comme etant « la vie pleinement humaine ». Ce principe, qui est utilise a la fois comme theorie pour la comprehension des societes modernes et comme critere pour la construction de societes meilleures, l'auteur en fait l'analyse a l'aide des conceptions du pouvoir et de la propriete qui sont elaborees par Macpherson a partir de problemes pratiques. Ce dernier concoit la societe d'une facon restreinte a travers le fait qu'un vocabulaire special y soit employe dans le but d'escamoter le principal probleme politique, soit celui d'un conflit entre les valeurs. Ainsi, selon Macpherson, la democratie passerait du champ de la politique a celui de la sociologie morale et les relations economiques, telles la propriete, seraient initialement politiques et fondamentalement morales. L'auteur soutient que cette reduction des complexites de la vie humaine a un simple systeme leur confere des proprietes purement mecaniques.

The Decline of Free Research in the Social Sciences

Abstract: I have picked as a topic for my presidential address a problem that should be of concern to all social scientists and to political scientists in particular It is the problem of the decline of free research in the social sciences By that I mean, the relative decline of independent research initiated by scholars themselves, as opposed to research commissioned and controlled by government It may be that many of you are not aware of this as a problem If that is the case, then you may be part of the problem In recent years there has occurred what I regard as an alarming shift in the federal government's budget for social science research, a shift from scholarinitiated research to government-commissioned research I propose to discuss the nature and causes of this alarming trend, its unfortunate consequences, and finally, what should be done about it

Dialectical Method in the Political Writings of Lenin and Bukharin

Abstract: At the end of 1922 Lenin was prompted by a sudden deterioration of his health to write his political testament. In it he declared that although Nikolai Bukharin was "the biggest and most valuable theoretician of the party," nevertheless "his theoretical views can only with the greatest doubt be regarded as fully Marxist, for there is something scholastic in him (he has never learned, and I think has never fully understood dialectics)."i Stephen E. Cohen's recent study2 has provided a comprehensive history of Bukharin's political career, making it appropriate now to explore the meaning of Lenin's comment and thus to assess the significance of Bukharin as a Marxist theorist. In the present essay, following Lenin's criticism, an effort will be made to interpret Bukharin's major theoretical writings from a methodological point of view. This approach, beginning with a brief exposition of Lenin's own use of the dialectical method, will make it possible to compare the works of the two men on several common themes and thus to determine the theoretical and practical origins of their differences. According to Lenin both the material world and all social existence are characterized by dialectical contradictions. "The identity of opposites," he wrote in his Philosophical Notebooks, "... is the recognition (discovery) of the contradictory, mutually exclusive, opposite tendencies in all phenomena ..."" While Lenin suggested that the concept of the identity of opposites expressed "the essence of dialectics,"4 in his investigation of any concrete social totality he invariably undertook a much more subtle and far-reaching study than this summary phrase might suggest. At a time when most other prominent Marxists, including Kautsky, Luxemburg, and Plekhanov, oriented their theoretical writings mainly on the principal contradiction of capitalist society that between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie, as social classes Lenin held that society could only be properly understood as a complex of heterogeneous relations. The principal contradiction, in other words, only assumed practical political significance through a careful analysis of its numerous specific and particular manifestations. As Lenin remarked: "Dialectics calls for a many-sided investigation into a given social phenomenon in its development, and [only then] for the external and seeming to be reduced to the fundamental motive forces, to the development of the class struggle. "5 To focus attention exclusively upon the principal contradiction was, in Lenin's

Marxism as Dogma, Ideology, and Theory in Contemporary Political Sociology *

Abstract: Marx est generalement reconnu comme etant l'un des principaux fondateurs intellectuels de la sociologie politique. On trouve cependant d'importantes differences dans les facons dont on a fait usage de son heritage intellectuel. Aux mains des marxistes orthodoxes, sa perspicacite theorique s'est ossifiee en un systeme dogmatique. Les sociologues politiques anti-marxistes ont transforme ses categories analytiques en des instruments d'apprehension des continuites socio-economiques et politiques plutot que des transformations revolutionnaires, et cela en etablissant une distinction entre les apports « scientifiques » de Marx et sa « philosophie politique » jugee inacceptable parce que fondee sur des valeurs utopiques dissimulees derriere des concepts tels la « theorie critique » et la «methode dialectique. » Meme si l'analyse de classe a acquis un statut important dans le developpement de la sociologie politique, ses rapports avec la conception qu'avait Marx de la lutte des classes sont devenus si tenus qu'elle sert a accentuer, a l'oppose des conclusions auxquelles Marx etait parvenu, les fonctions integratives des conflits de classe dans les democraties bourgeoises. Par ailleurs, les marxistes non dogmatiques, tout en acceptant comme pertinente une partie de la recherche sociale empirique, n'ont pas reussi a developper une theorie des societes capitalistes contemporaines qui pourrait guider une praxis revolutionnaire.Une evaluation des difficultes inherentes au developpement d'une perspective marxiste de la lutte des classes et de la revolution permet a l'auteur de formuler certains doutes concernant la viabilite actuelle de l'heritage intellectuel de Marx. Selon lui, le marxisme pourrait etre devenu un obstacle, plutot qu'un guide theorique, a l'avenement de changements sociaux radicaux.

Hobbes on Political Science and Political Order

Abstract: Cet article etudie les rapports entre la facon dont Hobbes etablit l'agencement des connaissances et la facon dont il etablit l'agencement du pouvoir dans le Leviathan. Il s'interesse particulierement a sa theorie du langage et a ses efforts pour atteindre a l'objectivitie a l'aide de la formalisation mathematique, laquelle requiert que soient bannies du raisonnement scientifique toutes les manifestations du discours poetique. A partir de ces premisses, l'auteur tente de demontrer comment Hobbes entrevoyait l'interdependance entre la science politique et l'ordre politique en ce sens qu'un Commonwealth durable devait etre fonde sur une science de la politique et une science de la politique devait, pour etre vraiment une science, devenir la doctrine officielle d'un Commonwealth. De cette maniere cependant, et l'agencement des connaissances et l'agencement du pouvoir reposeraient sur des bases formelles assez fragiles qui ne seraient, en somme, que ce qui demeure apres que se soient evanouies toute competition et toute subjectivite.

Prime Ministerial Character: An Alternative View

Abstract: The analysis of political leadership is an enterprise often handicapped by the lack of an adequate conceptual framework. Mr Courtney has selected James Barber's model of presidential character as a means of overcoming this problem and has presented an interesting examination of Mackenzie King's political leadership based on this approach. There are, however, a number of aspects both of the Barber model and of Mackenzie King's leadership that Courtney has been unable to develop. It is proposed in this brief rejoinder to discuss some of these issues and to indicate the main lines of an alternative interpretation of Mr King's character.' There are a number of difficulties associated with the use of Barber's frame-

Authors and Publishers: An Analysis of Textbook Selection in Canadian Departments of Political Science and Sociology *

Abstract: In recent years numerous critics, generally those with strong nationalist inclinations, have attempted to demonstrate that Canadians are no longer autonomous in cultural and educational pursuits. Whether or not such autonomy ever existed to any substantial degree, especially for non-French Canada, might itself be disputed. Indeed, a good case can be put forward for the proposition that the gradual diminution of British practices, norms, and expertise in many facets of Canadian education, if not in Canadian culture generally, was accompanied by a concomitant increase in American practices, publications, and personnel rather than by any emerging period of distinctly Canadian expression. That most of the substantial Americanization in postsecondary education and many other areas was occasioned by Canadian invitation tends, however, to be widely ignored. Be that as it may, most critics now prefer to focus on the actual state of affairs and the continuing trends rather than on historical causes.