Showing papers in "Demography in 1980"

Homicide trends in the united states

Abstract: Unlike most other causes of death, homicide has been increasing in the United States, especially since the mid-1960s. Its impact is greatest among nonwhite men. The elimination of homicide would add approximately one and one-half years to their life span. This analysis examines trends and differentials using vital statistics data about homicide victims. A decomposition of components of change reveals that almost all of the rise in homicide mortality among nonwhites and a substantial fraction of the rise among whites results from the increasing use of firearms to kill people.

Changes in the Propensity to Live Alone: 1950–1976

Abstract: The growth in single-person households is a pervasive behavioral phenomenon in the United States in the post-war period. In this paper we investigate determinants of the propensity to live alone, using 1970 data across states for single men and women ages 25 to 34 and for elderly widows. Income level appears to be a major determinant of the propensity to live alone. The estimated cross-state equations track about three-quarters of the increase in the propensity to live alone between 1950-1976and suggest that income growth has been the principal identified influence. Other variables found to affect (positively) the propensity to live alone include mobility, schooling level, and for young people a measure of social climate; non-whites appear to have a somewhat lower propensity to live alone.

Foreign-born emigration from the united states: 1960 to 1970

Abstract: This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.

Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity

Abstract: Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife’s expectations and husband’s preferences. Unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.

Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births.

Abstract: This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progression ratios yet can be dealt with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.

Patterns of American Jewish fertility.

Abstract: The 1971 National Jewish Population Survey provides cross-sectional data on achieved fertility, detailed birth histories, and other information on family formation for a countrywide representative sample of 5,303 ever-married women. Cohort analysis shows that—although at lower levels—Jewish fertility has followed the general trends of American population.

Labor Force Status Life Tables for the United States, 1972

Abstract: As an ordinary life table follows a closed group from birth to the death of its last member, a labor force status life table follows a closed group through life and through the statuses “in the labor force” and “not in the labor force.” Using data from the January 1972 and January 1973 Current Population Surveys, two types of labor force status life tables were calculated for the United States, 1972. One type was a conventional working life table (for males) which started with an ordinary life table and partitioned the life table population into labor force statuses using age-specific proportions in the labor force. The other type was an increment-decrement table, prepared for both males and females, which was calculated so as to be consistent with the rates of labor force accession and separation implied by the data.

Parity-specific and two-sex utility models of reproductive intentions.

Abstract: This paper uses married couples' anticipated consequences of having a (another) child to predict their reproductive intentions. Parity-specific models identify different variables as predictors of reproductive behavior at different parities but do not yield interpretable patterns of difference by parity. Parity-specific models are not significantly stronger predictors of reproductive behavior. Generally, wife-only models are distinctly superior to husband-only models. Two-sex models are usually better predictors than one-sex models but not enough better to justify the additional cost.

Recent nonmetropolitan population change in fifty-year perspective.

Abstract: Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970.Growth was greatest in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among counties without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among counties with protracted histories of population decline.

Asset Accumulation and Family Size

Abstract: Utilizing panel data on families, estimates are made of the effects of children on asset accumulation, asset composition, consumption, and family income. Young children are found to depress savings for young families but to increase savings for marriages of duration greater than five years. The principal channel through which children act to reduce savings is the decline in female earnings associated with the child-induced withdrawal of wives from the labor force. Family consumption actually decreases with the birth of a child, but this reduction is insufficient, for young families, to offset the fall in income. For families in which the wife does not work the estimates suggest that savings may actually increase with children.

On the demography of aging.

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the contributions of demography to gerontology or the demography of aging. The major interests of gerontological demographers and outstanding issues and problems are discussed in terms of the process of aging. Problems of definition of old age and aging are noted in terms of: 1) the lack of a universally acceptable definition of normal biological aging and 2) the variance of cultural definitions of old age. The demographer usually defines old age by age boundaries but recent advances have begun to define old age in terms of longevity e.g. the number of years until death. This concept has certain economic social legal and ethical implications. For instance a chronically ill person could claim the benefits of old-age legislation at a younger age than a healthy person. Demography of aging is grounded in the theory of growth and structure of population. Many studies have shown that in the aging of populations fertility is the determining factor not mortality. Contrary to popular belief the next several decades will see that the past record of births is expected to dominate the changes in the future numbers of elderly. Mortality declines will play a secondary role. Given current trends it is possible that the United States will see unprecedented high levels (17%) of elderly people. One of the most important facts and problems of the older years in industrialized countries is the large excess of women which leads to problems of isolation for many elderly women. Mortality and longevity are important in the demography of aging. Key issues are: 1) the analysis of factors in past declines in fertility rates 2) the possibilities and prospects of extending life expectancy and span 3) the problem of measuring socioeconomic differentials in mortality and 4) the possibilities of reducing group differences. Demographers continue to hold an interest in the differences in the variation between death rates and the variation between the life expectancy values. Demographers study the health status of the elderly the health care delivery system the allocation of resources for health care and the relation between morbidity and mortality. Geographic distribution and mobility of the elderly are also important to demographers. Gerontological demographers are particularly interested in measurement and analysis of the life cycle. They measure age period and cohort factors which affect the life cycle and construct multiple decrement tables which are useful to analyzing labor force participation migration expectancy and family formation and dissolution. One principal area in which demography and geronotology converge is in the study of marital composition and living arrangements of the elderly as well as the family cycle. Societal dependency measurements work experience and retirement prospects are also important areas of study.

Some new techniques for applying the housing unit method of local population estimation

Abstract: The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per household. Estimates produced by these techniques are compared to estimates produced by several other techniques. Special census results from Florida provide preliminary evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than the other techniques.

Effects Of The Number And Spacing Of Children On Marital And Parental Satisfaction

Abstract: Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up study of high school students originally surveyed in 1957-58 and resurveyed in 1973-74, this paper examines the effects of the number and spacing of children on marital and parental satisfaction. The results suggest that the number of children in the family has no direct effect on marital satisfaction but has a direct negative effect on parental satisfaction. Childspacing, as measured by the length of the average birth interval, is found to have no significant effect on either marital or parental satisfaction. Premarital pregnancy has a negative effect on both the marital and parental satisfaction of women.

Employment deconcentration in the nonmetropolitan migration turnaround

Abstract: Since 1970, metropo1itan-to-nonmetropo1itan migration has substantially exceeded the corresponding and historically greater stream of migrants from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan areas. Previous research has concentrated on the changes in retirement mobility, growth of recreation and tourism, and residential preferences responsible in part for the new trends in population distribution. Relatively less attention has been paid to the corresponding phenomenon of the deconcentration of persons who remain actively engaged in the labor force. This research uses data from the Continuous Work History Sample merged with a file of county characteristics to examine trends in location of employed workers from 1960 to 1975. The analyses document changes of county of employment that parallel the trends in general population mobility. The CWHS data show increased movement of employed workers out of the largest SMSAs and into the smaller SMSAs and into both adjacent and nonadjacent nonmetropolitan counties. These data also indicate that the rate of change is greatest for nonadjacent counties. Both increased metropolitan outmovement and decreased nonmetropolitan outmovement are significant in producing the observed net changes.

Estimating the Approximate Size of The Illegal Alien Population in the United States by the Comparative Trend Analysis of Age-Specific Death Rates

Abstract: This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.

The index of overall headship: a simple measure of household complexity standardized for age and sex.

Abstract: This paper develops and tests an age-sex standardized measure of household complexity, defined broadly as the tendency of adults (other than spouses) to head their own households or to share households. The aim is a measure of household complexity which can be computed with a minimum of demographic data, namely, data on number of households and on the population by age and sex. The procedure is similar to that of Coale for fertility measurement (Coale, 1969); it is a form of indirect standardization in which the actual number of households is related to the number that would exist if maximum age-sex-specific household headship rates were to apply. Various forms of this indirectly standardized measure show a correlation of better than 0.9 with directly standardized measures for a sample of 33 nations for which requisite data are available. The new measure promises to extend considerably the geographical and temporal range of comparable empirical measures of household complexity.

Starting age and subsequent birth intervals in cohabitational unions in current Danish cohorts, 1975.

Abstract: This paper presents some main results of an investigation by life table methods of birth interval data in cohabitational unions (marriages as well as consensual unions) in current Danish cohorts. Our results confirm previous findings that an early age at the start of recorded exposure to childbearing risk is indicative of a rapid pace and high level of subsequent fertility. The analysis modifies previous results and adds several new details regarding cohort trends and the effect of parity at the start of reported cohabitation. For each parity within a period of cohabitation, fertility differentials by reported starting age seem to have diminished from our older cohorts (of age up to 49 years in 1975) to our younger ones (of age less than 30 years in 1975). There are indications of a dramatic change in childbearing behaviour following the arrival of novel attitudes to non-marital cohabitation and childbearing in Denmark about 1967.

Demographic responses and demographic transitions: a case study of sweden

Abstract: An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if our-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden--it did not conform to Friedlander's hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis's theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.

Racial differences in per capita income, 1960-76: the importance of household size, headship, and labor force participation

Abstract: Racial differences in average per capita income are decomposed, as are changes over time for both races. The 1960–76 decline in household size accounted for 13 percent of the per capita income inprovement of both races. Whereas real increases in earnings of husbands contributed most to improvements in well-being in husband-wife households, increases in income from sources other than earnings were most important to female headed households. During a period in which a growing proportion of both races resided in female headed households and racial differences in living arrangements widened, the per capita income of female headed households relative to husband-wife households declined.

Regression-like analysis of birth interval sequences

Abstract: Employing a family of generalized linear models for the gamma distribution, the structure of birth interval data derived from three historical populations is examined. The relative importance of such factors as current age, parity of the mother, and duration of marriage in determining the length of succeeding intervals is investigated. The results suggest that the three data sets have a common, rather simple structure and various applications of such empirical models are considered.

Improving accuracy in multiple regression estimates of population using principles from causal modelling.

Abstract: This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimate. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that is uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.

Estimates Of U.S. Multiple Cause Life Tables

Abstract: Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These “multiple cause” life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk eliminated is that of the cause of death only in its occurrence as the underlying cause of death. An evaluation is made of the possible effects of the multiple cause data on our perception of the relative importance of the major causes of death. The reconceptualization of mortality risks made possible by the multiple cause of death data is also assessed in terms of its providing further insight into the “Taeuber paradox.”

Comparative estimates of teenage illegitimacy in the United States, 1940-44 to 1970-74.

Abstract: Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.

A note on the use of regression methods in population estimates

Abstract: Evidence which has emerged in the past few years indicates that the relative accuracy of population estimates derived from the ratio-correlation method and the difference-correlation method varies from state to state. In assessing the possible reasons why neither technique is uniformly more accurate, attention is focused on the temporal instability of the statistical relationships between symptomatic indicators and population change. The author concludes that further improvement in population estimates based on regression techniques is likely to be limited until demographers derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes.

A Note on Stability in the U.S. Metropolitan System: 1950–1970

Abstract: The authors attempt to replicate Wanners analysis (see 44: Title 2136) of the classification of U.S. metropolitan communities as defined by Duncan (see 36: Title 3116). They use 1970 data to determine whether the two factors identified by Wanner namely industry structure and specialization remained significant and the extent to which cities have maintained their position in the urban system over the period 1950 to 1970 (ANNOTATION)

Racial equity or racial equality

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between racial equity in labor market processes and racial equality in future labor market rewards. In particular, a regression standardization procedure is used to project the degree of racial inequality in earnings that would exist among men at various future points in time based on three different sets of assumptions about attainment processes in labor market and educational institutions. The most important results suggest that even if racial discrimination were eliminated immediately in labor market and educational institutions, it would take almost 50 years for the black-white earnings ratio to reach .95. This incompatibility between equity and equality needs to be considered more explicitly both by those who advocate a color-blind labor market and those who advocate preferential treatment for blacks.

The sisters' riddle and the importance of variance when guessing demographic rates from kin counts.

Abstract: Goldman (1978) has proposed a formula derived from stable population theory for estimating growth rates from certain counts of younger and older sisters in a population. Computer microsimulation outputs show extraordinarily large statistical errors for estimation when stable population assumptions are modified to allow for random variability such as would be encountered with field work on small populations. A derivation of Goldman’s formula on more interpretable lines than that in Goldman (1978) identifies a source of variance special to this particular formula so that the large statistical errors for this example need not count in general against the feasibility of estimating demographic rates from counts of kin.

Mortality of the chronically impaired.

Abstract: An analysis of the effects of diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis on death due to ischemic heart disease or stroke was conducted using multiple cause mortality statistics. Specifically, all U.S. deaths in 1969 were classified into two groups on the basis of whether diabetes or generalized atherosclerosis was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Then race and sex specific analyses were made of ischemic heart disease deaths (or alternately of stroke deaths) using modified life table techniques for each group (one with the specified chronic disease and one without). Comparisons were made of mortality due to the acute circulatory events (ischemic heart disease or stroke) in the two groups to determine the implications of the chronic disease for the progression of the circulatory disease events. It was found, according to expectations, that diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis play very different roles in deaths due to stroke and ischemic heart disease.

A mathematical model relating cohort and period mortality.

Abstract: This paper presents a mathematical model for changing mortality in functional form. This model may be used to obtain cohort forces of mortality and cohort survivorship functions from a period force of mortality and a period life table under conditions of gradually changing mortality if an estimate of the amount of change in mortality is available. An example is given to show how the cohort functions are derived from the period functions.