Showing papers in "Economic Modelling in 2004"

TL;DR: In this article, the authors adopt as their benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the impact of two key factor market distortions in China on rural-urban inequality and income distribution and find that creation of a fully functioning land market has a significant impact on ruralurban inequality.

TL;DR: In this paper, the size and power properties of three multivariate tests for autocorrelation, namely portmanteau test, Lagrange multiplier (LM) test and Rao F-test, were investigated in the stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models, with and without ARCH, using Monte Carlo experiments.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess the macroeconomic consequences of UK leaving the European Union using simulation analyses on the NIESR macroeconometric model of the UK economy under endogenous fiscal and monetary policies, showing that living standards would be adversely affected by withdrawal, largely due to a decline in the level of technical efficiency resulting from a lower future level of inward foreign direct investment.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors formalized the concept of budgetary stabilisers as a set of simple policy rules, and assessed their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macro-econometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

TL;DR: This article examined whether the labor market search model can account for the business cycle facts on the three uses of time: employment, unemployment, and non-participation, and showed that despite its good performance on the employment rate, this framework fails to mimic the empirical dynamics on the two other use of time, notably the strongly countercyclical behavior of the unemployment rate.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion, and found that the existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the optimal capital accumulation at the firm level when technical progress is energy saving and showed that the optimal replacement of obsolete capital is lower under embodiment compared to the benchmark case.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors deal with the specification of pollution abatement in dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and analyze the dynamic feedback mechanisms between economy and abatements in the context of environmental policy.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a systematic synopsis of alternative formulations of imperfectly competitive supply behaviour in applied general equilibrium trade models and examine the sensitivity of simulated trade policy effects to the specification choice and calibration strategy within a prototype multi-country model.

TL;DR: The authors examined theoretically the nature of these links through the perspective of a recently developed disaggregated sub-regional general equilibrium economic model, LINE, and discusses related operational problems and strategies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the profit levels at which it is optimal to switch from exporting to setting up a wholly owned subsidiary, creating a joint venture, or licensing production to a local firm are derived.

TL;DR: In this article, the main model properties of NiGEM, the National Institute's large-scale macroeconometric model, are discussed and the Euro Area responses to monetary and fiscal policy are greatest in Germany and the US due to greater wage-price inertia.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use a recently developed macroeconometric model (AWM) which treats the euro area as a single economy, and document its response to monetary, fiscal, productivity and long-run unemployment shocks.

TL;DR: In this paper, a multiple structural change test was proposed to detect a break in the correlation between spread of interest rate and future activity in 1984 for US monthly data, which is associated with the loss of the predictive power of the term structure.

TL;DR: In this article, the competitive equilibrium of a one sector growth model with public consumption in the utility function is shown to be indeterminate for plausible values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption, under constant returns to scale and endogenous government expenditures.

TL;DR: In this article, the dual rates of pure time preference, recently introduced for analysing long-term environmental problems, are reinterpreted as shifts in preferences, and they are used to predict shifts in preference over time.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new interpretation of the influential finding that the markup of prices over marginal costs is counter-cyclical is provided, which is best modelled as a variable that is integrated of order one.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present simulation experiments using the European Commission's QUEST model to evaluate the effects of policy impulses and permanent supply side shocks in the four major EU economies and demonstrate the transmission mechanisms of specific monetary and fiscal policy shocks, standardised shocks agreed to facilitate comparison among models.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the links between life expectancy, retirement age and economic growth, and build a finite horizon OLG model with exogenous retirement in which human capital accumulation drives endogenous growth.

TL;DR: In this paper, a numerical scheme for dealing with the aggregation of consumer demands is presented, where unobservable disaggregate demands and expenditure distributions are recovered in a manner consistent with observable information.

TL;DR: This article showed that the term spread puzzles can be attributed to the different volatility of the term premia corresponding to the above two versions of the word spread models of the expectations hypothesis, respectively, which translates into a link between the bias in the slope coefficient of the two term spread models.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the particular issue of the ECB projection exercise, first in terms of its relation to monetary policy and the corresponding strategy, and second, with respect to the specific role on models in producing the projections, with a particular focus on which type of models are used and on the particular procedure followed to duly incorporate judgmental elements.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors empirically analyzed the existence and extent of contagion in explaining volatility of the South African Rand and confirmed the presence of financial, but not trade contagion.

TL;DR: In this article, the differences in dynamic adjustment properties of two versions of the MULTIMOD, the IMF's multicountry macroeconomic model, are compared as part of a Euro area macroeconomic comparison project.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors deal with the problem of modelling in a formal way the concept of excess profit, being the difference between profit and costs, where all types of costs are taken into account, included the opportunity cost, i.e. the profit the entrepreneur would obtain if she invested in another business.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that when information is distributed asymmetrically between those who make decisions (the government) and the theoretical beneficiaries (investors), optimal investment behavior is distorted.

TL;DR: In this article, Harberger [J. Economic Lit. 9 (1971) 785-797] decomposed infinitesimally small changes in the uncompensated measure into components that measure the alleviation, or exacerbation, of existing distortions.

TL;DR: In this article, a multi-sector model of imperfect competition with an otherwise common technology but sector-specific mark-ups, technical level and technical progress is proposed for long-run supply estimation.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of near-rationality in dynamic general equilibrium with indeterminacy was evaluated and it was shown that sunspot equilibria are quite robust to perturbations of the forecasting mechanism.