Showing papers in "Economics of Planning in 1979"

Application of sparse matrix techniques to inter-regional input-output analysis

Abstract: Combining the concepts described in this paper makes it possible to solve inter-regional input-output systems (and other types of large, sparse, linear systems) with considerable efficiency in storage and computation. The exact number of operations and corresponding savings in computational time and storage depend on the particular zero-non zero structure of each matrix in the system, but in any case the savings can be enormous. A recommended procedure is summarized below. 1. Take the entire inter-regional IO system which includes the representation of each of the regions and of the links among them and express it in the formMx=Bz or, more simply,Mx=b (since bothB andz are known). It may be helpful for this purpose to draw a picture of the large matrixM. 2. PartitionM into blocks, exploiting the structure of the particular system. For example, at the very least, the matrix or matrices corresponding to each region will probably be separate blocks. The analysis required for this step may lead to reformulating the matrix representation of the given economic system by, for example, replacing a set of equations with linear combinations of these same equations, particularly for the equations representing the links among regions. 3. Identify an appropriate partition of the blocks ofM, and a corresponding partition of the vectorsx andb, for performing a block factorization. This solution algorithm, which solves forx inMx=b (whereM now represents the entire system) is not available as a packaged program and so for the foreseeable future must be written in ‘home-made’ computer code that assumes a sparse matrix storage scheme compatible with the package to be used (as in 4 below). The algorithm for block factorization in the 2×2 case relevant to our particular inter-regional IO system is given in Section 8 of this paper. 4. Some steps of the algorithm require solving smaller systems of the formHu=v foru, given some matrixH and some vectorv. Efficient packaged subroutines can be obtained at low cost in order to solve these systems by finding the block triangular form corresponding to a particularH, then performing theLU factorization of the diagonal blocks only. The home-made code will interact with these subroutines.

Interaction between central planners and firms: the uncertainty of target adjustment

Abstract: The interaction between planners and firms in a centrally planned economy has already been treated by a number of authors. They have generally focused upon the firm's performance in the face of various reward structures and have, with the exception of Gindin (1970) and Snowberger (1977), not dealt explicitly with the feed-back effect this performance has on the planners' adjustment of the reward structure for the future. This paper has extended the previous analysis of the feedback mechanism into the case where a firm knows that the planners have the power to make such adjustments but does not know precisely what form they will take. We have developed models which reflect several different ways in which a firm might respond to this uncertainty. Furthermore, we have introduced an adjustment scheme which considers the performance of all firms in the industry when setting a target for any one of them, in addition to treating the ordinary assumption that a firm's future target depends only upon its own present underor overfulfillment.

Assessing the accuracy of interindustry econometric simulations

Abstract: The value of input-output has been debated since the development of interindustry analysis four decades ago.While most critics do not question the value of" input-output tables as a means of organizing and classifying statistical data or doubt the catalytic role interindustry analysis has played in stimulating improvement in the quantity and quality of economic data, controversy has arisen over the validity of input-output analysis as an economic forecasting device. Despite the large volume of input-output and related research conducted since Leontief's work in the 1930's, 1 the question ,,Can alternate and less costly methods yield predictions of industry outputs which are as good as or superior to those derived through inter industrytechniques?,)st i l l remains unanswered.

An econometric model of Bangladesh and evaluation of the five-year development plan

Abstract: We have developed a simple macroeconometric model of Bangladesh economy in order to evaluate the Five Year Development Plan. Although the model contains only five behavioral equations and two identities because of restrictions imposed by the availability of data, the sample period ex-post predictions are nearly as good as those of large scale econometric models of the US economy (OBE and WHARTON-EFU models). The consistency of the Five Year Plan was tested by comparing the plan target for major economic aggregates with projections of the same aggregates based on econometric model. Four scenarios were developed for projections. They are: ... ∞: Rapid restoration of business confidence with imports unrestricted, ... 0: Rapid restoration of business confidence with imports restricted, - ∞: Gradual restoration of business confidence with imports unrestricted, - 0: Gradual restoration of business confidence with imports unrestricted.