Showing papers in "European Journal of Population-revue Europeenne De Demographie in 2009"

Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria

Abstract: In this article, we study fertility decision-making through timing parity-progression intentions. The theoretical framework builds on Ajzen’s social-psychological “Theory of Planned Behavior”: intentions are seen as directly dependent on three components: attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control. We study the case of Bulgaria, a “lowest-low” fertility country. In 2002, a sample survey containing a specially designed module was conducted. This module included an implementation of our framework, with a special attention to the links between normative pressure and the social network of respondents. Results show that the three components are broadly predictive of fertility intentions. More specifically, attitudes are more relevant than norms for higher parities. Socio-economic, ideational, psychological and social capital-based factors are relevant background determinants.

Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective

Abstract: Recent years have witnessed a resurgence in the interest in family size intentions and ideals in developed societies, partially stemming from the idea that realized fertility in these societies is lower than intended fertility. This paper addresses the question of the stability of family size intentions. Based on Heckhausen’s life-span theory of control, it is hypothesized that young adults’ family size intentions are likely to change as a result of their experiences in the family and occupational life domains. To study this issue, data are used from a Dutch panel survey in which respondents are questioned on their family size intentions six times over the course of 18 years. The results show that family size intentions are not stable, but are adjusted as people age. On average, the adjustment is downward, but some people do not adjust their intentions or even adjust them upwards. Much of this difference in age patterns can be explained by changes in the partner, educational, and occupational careers of young adults. Not finding a suitable partner and pursuing a career—for women—are important factors. But also the timing of the fertility career itself is of major importance. If respondents postpone having children until their thirties, they are much more likely to adjust their intentions downwards than if they start their childbearing career earlier.

Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation, and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework.

Abstract: In Central and Eastern Europe following the political transformations of the late 1980s and early 1990s, there were dramatic declines in marriage and childbearing, significant increases in nonmarital cohabitation and childbearing, and a movement from reliance on abortion to a reliance on contraception for fertility limitation. Although many explanations have been offered for these trends, we offer new explanations based on ideational influences and the intersection of these ideational influences with structural factors. We focus on the political, economic, social, and cultural histories of the region, with particular emphasis on how countries in the region have interacted with and been influenced by Western European and North American countries. Our explanations emphasize the role of developmental models in guiding change in the region, suggesting that developmental idealism influenced family and demographic changes following the political transformations. Developmental idealism provides beliefs that modern family systems help to produce modern political and economic accomplishments, and it helps establish the importance of freedom and equality as human rights in both the public and private spheres. The disintegration of the governments and the fall of the iron curtain in the late 1980s and early 1990s brought new understanding about social, economic, and family circumstances in the West, increasing consumption aspirations and expectations which clashed with both old economic realities and the dramatic declines in economic circumstances. In addition, the dissolution of the former governments removed or weakened systems supporting the bearing and rearing of children; and the legitimacy of the former governments and their programs was largely destroyed, thereby removing government support for old norms and patterns of behavior. In addition, the attacks of previous decades on the religious institutions in the region had in many places left these institutions weak. During this period, many openly reached out to embrace the values, living standards, and economic, political, and familial systems of the West. And, the thirst for freedom—and its considerable expansion—operated in personal and familial as well as political and economic realms. These dramatic changes combined together to produce the many changes occurring in family and demographic behavior.

How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward

Abstract: Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.

Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap

Abstract: The articles in this special issue report about research carried out in a project with the same title as this introductory article (acronym FERTINT) This introduction starts with a brief description of the “fertility gap” It outlines its deficiencies when used for policy implications and the advantages of using fertility intentions It also summarises the broad scope of issues related to intentions as presented in the articles: life-time and short-time fertility intentions and their realisation or frustration, the effect of uncertainty on intentions, the relevance of the theories of planned behaviour and fertility preferences and of social networks for studying couples’ and competing intentions

Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective

Abstract: The discussion on the causes of the most recent fertility decline in Europe, and in particular on the emergence of lowest-low fertility, emphasizes the relevance of cultural factors in addition to economic ones. As part of such a cultural framework, the heterogeneity of preferences concerning the “career vs. family” dichotomy has been systematized in the “Preference Theory” approach developed by Catherine Hakim. This heterogeneity in preferences, however, has so far been underinvestigated in a comparative framework. This paper makes use of comparative data from the 2004/2005 Round of the European Social Survey to test the links between individual-level preferences and both fertility outcomes and fertility intentions, in a variety of societal settings. Results confirm an association between work–family lifestyle preferences and realized fertility in a variety of European countries, while they do not show a relationship between lifestyle preferences and fertility intentions. Results further support the existence of heterogeneous patterns of association between lifestyle preferences and fertility choices among welfare regimes.

The 1991–2004 Evolution in Life Expectancy by Educational Level in Belgium Based on Linked Census and Population Register Data

Abstract: The aim of this study is to determine trends in life expectancy by educational level in Belgium and to present elements of interpretation for the observed evolution. The analysis is based on census data providing information on educational level linked to register data on mortality for the periods 1991–1994 and 2001–2004. Using exhaustive individual linked data allows to avoid selection bias and numerator–denominator bias. The trends reveal a general increase in life expectancy together with a widening social gap. Summary indices of inequality based on life expectancies show, however, a more complex pattern and point to the importance to include the shifts in population composition by educational level in an overall assessment of the evolution of inequality by educational level.

Social interaction effects on fertility: intentions and behaviors.

Abstract: The existing literature shows that the social interactions in personal networks affect individuals’ reproductive attitudes and behavior through three mechanisms: social influence, social learning, and social support. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the socio-psychological model of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) takes these social mechanisms into account when used in modeling fertility intentions and behavior. We argue that by integrating all three social network mechanisms, the ability of the TPB to explain reproductive events could be enhanced in two respects. First, social influence explains why some beliefs and practices are reproduced at the individual level even in the face of macro-level changes, and social learning mechanisms are crucial to distinguish who finally adopts new behavioral beliefs and practices in response to changes at the macro level. Second, social support relationships represent a capital of services to complement institutional provision (informal child care) as well as a capital of knowledge which helps individuals navigate in a complex institutional environment, providing a crucial element to explain heterogeneity in the successful realization of fertility intentions across individuals. The integration of the three social network mechanisms into the TPB helps to address the connection between changes in what the theory indicates as background factors and variation in individual intentions and behavior. We develop specific hypotheses concerning the effect of social interactions on fertility intentions and their realization and conclude with a critical review of the existing surveys that could serve to test these hypotheses and their limits.

Childcare cash benefits and fertility timing in Norway.

Abstract: In 1998 a new cash benefit for parents with young children was introduced in Norway. Its purpose was to provide a cash payment to parents who either preferred to care for their children at home or to compensate those who were not offered external childcare provision. It has been argued that the new policy encouraged women to stay at home with their children, possibly reducing labour supply. The policy was consequently considered gender-biased, creating reduced incentives for women to participate in the labour market and therefore encouraging a more traditional division of labour of husbands and wives. Given this background of the policy, we undertake an analysis in two parts. We ask first the question “who takes the cash benefit?” Second, by applying simple matching techniques, we ask the question “Do couples taking the benefit behave differently in terms of their fertility timing?” Using information from Norwegian registers we find that more traditional households (in a broad sense) are more likely to take the cash benefit. Those taking the benefit accelerate childbearing significantly, though the reasons why they do so varies by socio-economic groups.

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Abstract: Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.

Couples’ First Child Intentions and Disagreement: An Analysis of the Italian Case

Abstract: The aim of this article is to examine the determinants of couples’ childbearing intentions, by explicitly taking into account the agreement or disagreement of the two members of the couple. The relevance of the partner’s reproductive intentions has been well recognised in the literature, but few studies have provided in-depth analyses of the fertility plans of both partners. In our study, we used the household-level data from a survey on “Family and Social Subjects”, carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office in 2003, which provides characteristics on both partners. We adopted a couple’s perspective which allows us to give a unitary picture of the concordant or discordant nature of partners’ first child intentions. We found that a lack of agreement in the reproductive decision-making process is likely to occur in the Italian couples where the role of the woman is less traditional. In particular, cohabitant, highly educated and working women are more likely to be in disagreement with their partners in the decisions concerning having a first child. Being religious may be also a source of discordance in the couples’ reproductive plans. Our findings support the utility of taking a couple-based approach in studies on fertility intentions.

Economic Consequences of Union Dissolution in Italy: Findings from the European Community Household Panel

Abstract: Union dissolution is a constantly increasing phenomenon across Europe—even in Italy where the prevalence of divorce has always been among the lowest. This poses several questions on the potential consequences of such an event on the families involved. Many studies show that women usually experience the worst financial consequences, although there are few analyses on Italy, given the relatively low levels of union instability. In this work we study the impact of separation on the economic well-being of men and women using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), analyzed using both objective and subjective measures. By means of a matching method, we also estimate the effect of union dissolution, taking account of possible variations according to the different living arrangements adopted by ex-partners after separation. Results confirm that women experience worse economic distress than men. However, there is also a significant drop in economic well-being among non-custodial fathers who live alone after separation. In addition, it is found that income-based measures do not encapsulate all the dimensions of well-being, and therefore need to be complemented with other measures.

Marital and reproductive behavior in Italy after 1995: bridging the gap with Western Europe?

Abstract: Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.

Family Composition and Remarriage in Pre-Transitional Italy: A Comparative Study

Abstract: It is well known that timing and intensity of remarriage were strictly dependent upon demographic, socio-economic, cultural and legislative factors specific to each community. Thus, the aim of this paper is to compare the extent to which such factors may affect the remarriage patterns of three pre-transitional Italian populations that were different in many respects. By using micro-level data of the sharecropping communities of Casalguidi and Madregolo and the Alpine village of Treppo Carnico, we highlighted similarities and differences in the respective remarriage patterns, in particular, the far lower intensity in the mountain community with respect to the sharecropping ones. Our findings show that along with differences in the demographic system, household structure and land tenure, normative elements concerning widows and the dotal system could in part explain the differentials we found.

The influence of partner relationship quality on fertility

Abstract: This study examines whether partner relationship quality influences fertility, and if so, in which direction and which aspects of relationship quality are relevant. Competing hypotheses are tested. One hypothesis assumes that higher relationship quality leads to higher rates of childbearing, as a high-quality relationship offers the most favourable environment to raise children. An opposite hypothesis expects that lower relationship quality leads to higher rates of childbearing, as couples might have children in order to improve their relationship. Hazard analyses are performed using three waves of the Panel Study on Social Integration in the Netherlands. Findings indicate that positive as well as negative interaction between partners has a negative effect on first- and higher-order birth rates. This suggests that couples are most likely to have children if they do not have too much negative interaction, but neither interact in a very positive way. Value consensus negatively influences higher-order birth rates.

Change and Stability in Parent–Child Contact in Five Western Countries

Abstract: Although much is known about changes in the conjugal family, little is known about trends in contact between parents and adult (independently living) children. Using unique survey data, we study changes in contact with the mother and the father in five western countries over a 15-year period (Austria, West Germany, Great Britain, the United States, and Italy). We describe changes and we examine the role of compositional changes in the trend. We find no evidence for a decline in intergenerational contact, in contrast to notions of individualism. In two countries, there has been an increase in contact with the mother and in three countries no net trend is observed. Contact with the father has not changed. Other forms of contact (e.g., telephone contact) have increased. Some compositional changes have had a downward pressure on the trend, leading to a decline in contact (i.e., rising education, declining church attendance), but these pressures have been compensated by counteracting compositional changes (declining sibsize) and by behavioral changes.

Religious socialisation and fertility: transition to third birth in the Netherlands.

Abstract: Although previous studies have demonstrated that religious people in Europe have larger families, the role played by religious socialisation in the context of contemporary fertility behaviour has not yet been analysed in detail. This contribution specifically looks at the interrelation between religious socialisation and current religiosity and their impact on the transition to the third child for Dutch women. It is based on data of the first wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002–2004) and uses event history analysis. The transitions to first, second and third birth are modelled jointly with a control for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings provide evidence for an impact of women’s current church attendance as well as religious socialisation measured by their fathers’ religious affiliation, when they were teenagers. A religious family background remains influential even when a woman has stopped attending church. The effects of religious indicators strengthen over cohorts. Moreover, the combined religious make-up of the respondent’s parents also significantly determines the progression to the third child.

The Effect of Competing Intentions and Behaviour on Short-Term Childbearing Intentions and Subsequent Childbearing

Abstract: This article examines the effect that intentions to start studying and to enter into employment may have on childbearing intentions and subsequent childbearing. The analysis also includes the impact of the corresponding behaviour: currently studying or being employed. The theoretical background draws on Barber’s study of competing attitudes, with an emphasis on competing intentions. Based on survey and register data for Bulgaria, the analyses reveal the effect of competing intentions. For example, the intention to start studying hampers the construction and subsequent realisation of intentions to have a child within 2 years. The actual behaviour of currently studying has the same effect; both effects are most pronounced for intentions to become a parent and for actual entry into parenthood. Inversely, an intention to enter into employment facilitates childbearing intentions and, for men, so does the behaviour of being employed. The latter result holds for women’s intention to have a second child. The findings indicate that when childbearing intentions and realisation are analysed, it is preferable to consider persons with a competing intention to start studying either as a separate group or group them with those who are currently studying, not with those who are not. Logistic regression models and interaction effects are applied for the analyses.

The Contribution of Irish Immigrants to the Quebec (Canada) Gene Pool: An Estimation Using Data from Deep-Rooted Genealogies

Abstract: European settlement in Quebec (Canada) began in the early 17th century, with the arrival of French pioneers. After the British Conquest in 1760, immigrants from the British Isles began to settle in some parts of Quebec. Many of these immigrants were Irish Catholics. Historians and genealogists have identified several names of Irish origin in the French Canadian population, and many scholars have wondered about the importance of the integration of Irish migrants and their descendants within this population. The purposes of this study are to identify and characterize the founders of Irish origin to estimate the importance of their genetic contribution to the contemporary Quebec population, and to measure the variability of this contribution according to the founders’ period of arrival and county of origin in Ireland. Data was obtained from a set of 2,223 ascending genealogies going back as far as the early 17th century. The average genealogical depth is a little more than 9 generations, with many branches reaching 16 or 17 generations. Although Irish founders explain less than 1% of the total Quebec gene pool, results show that nearly 21% of the genealogies contain at least one Irish founder. These founders contributed to the peopling of all regions of Quebec, but there are some important variations from one region to another. A majority of the Irish founders immigrated during the 19th century, and most of them came from the counties of Southern Ireland.

Contexte local et migration: l’exemple des dynamiques migratoires internationales de quartiers dans la ville sénégalaise de Kaolack

Abstract: Despite the diversity of the variables considered, explanatory models of migration do not fully incorporate the locality of origin as a scale of observation for migratory behaviour. Migration is often perceived to generate notions of territory; conversely, are local territories drivers of mobility? If so, in what forms, and by what means? This article analyses international migration from the city of Kaolack in Senegal, with particular focus on the role of the neighbourhood in migration dynamics. Here, the neighbourhood is seen as relatively homogeneous and singular historical and social entity. The ties that are established and maintained from one generation to the next take the form of shared lifestyles and modes of organization which may influence inhabitants’ propensity to emigrate.

Causes of Fluctuating Mortality in Romania

Abstract: During the post-communist transition, Romanians experienced some of the highest mortality rates in eastern Europe, some of the greatest fluctuations in life expectancy and some of the greatest delays in recovery. This study examines the shifts in cause-specific mortality underlying these fluctuations. Using demographic methods to understand the peaks and troughs in life expectancy during the past twenty years, we explore several explanations for these fluctuations: changes in exposure and behaviour associated with the social, economic and political changes; changes in health care affecting amenable causes of death and the progression of the epidemiologic transition. Throughout this period, there is a continuing shift from infectious towards chronic diseases mortality. Psycho-social stress during the period of transition affected survival, evidenced by increases in suicides and differences in mortality between men and women. Amenable causes of death took a greater toll on life expectancy, and increases in tuberculosis and congenital heart abnormality mortality provide evidence of a weakening of health services. However, decreases in vaccine-preventable mortality demonstrate that the health system did not fully fail. Policy changes also affected survival, including decreasing abortion-related mortality and, after initial increases in accidental mortality, new improvements, especially in traffic fatalities.