Showing papers in "Foresight in 2010"

The many aspects of anticipation

Abstract: Purpose – After summarizing the theories of anticipation proposed over the past century, the paper aims to distinguish between anticipation as an empirical phenomenon and the conditions that make anticipation possible. The paper's first part seeks to show that many scholars from various research fields worked on the many nuances of anticipation. The paper's second part seeks to discuss the difference between the capacity of anticipation and the nature of systems able to exhibit anticipatory behavior. The former endeavor adopts a descriptive attitude, whilst the latter seeks to understand what it is that makes anticipation possible.Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a theoretical and experimental analysis of anticipation and anticipatory systems.Findings – Anticipation is a widely studied phenomenon within a number of different disciplines, including biology and brain studies, cognitive and social sciences, engineering and artificial intelligence. There is a need for relying on at least two d...

Road‐mapping the societal transformation potential of social media

Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to discuss the outcomes of a road‐mapping research on social media project completed at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. Social media refer to a combination of three elements: content, user communities, and Web 2.0 technologies.Design/methodology/approach – The paper utilizes socio‐technical road‐mapping to study the potential transformations of social media in the virtual and physical spheres.Findings – Road‐maps were constructed in three thematic areas: society, companies, and local environment. The results were crystallized into five development lines. The first development line is transparency and its increasing role in society. The second development line is the rise of a ubiquitous participatory communication model. The third development is reflexive empowerment citizens. The fourth development line is the duality of personalization/fragmentation vs mass effects/integration. The fifth development line is the new relations of physical and virtual worlds.Originality...

Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems

Abstract: Purpose – This article aims to be an expository introduction to Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies.Design/methodology/approach – The ubiquity of anticipatory systems in nature is explained.Findings – Causality is not violated by anticipatory systems, and teleology is an integral aspect of science.Practical implications – A terse exposition for a general readership, such as the present article, by definition cannot get into too many details. For further exploration the reader is referred to the recent book More than Life Itself by the author.Originality/value – The topic of anticipatory systems in particular, and methods of relational biology in general, provide important tools for foresight studies. It is the author's hope that this brief glimpse into the world of relational biology piques the interest of some readers to pursue the subject further.

Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline

Abstract: Purpose – This paper seeks to be a thought experiment. If the field of futures were invented today, it asks, what would it look like? What would be its intellectual foundations? Who would it serve and influence? And how would its ideas and insights be put into practice?Design/methodology/approach – It reviews the literatures on experimental psychology and neuroscience to identify biases that affect people's ability to think about and act upon the future, studies of expertise that map the limits of professional judgment, and recent work on the nature of critical challenges of the twenty‐first century.Findings – It argues that futurists could develop social software tools, prediction markets, and other technologies to improve the individual and collective accuracy and impact of work. Choice architectures and nudges to lengthen “the shadow of the future” of everyday choices made by ordinary people could also be used.Research limitations/implications – The paper argues for new directions in the practice of fu...

Sociological contributions to futures’ theory building

Abstract: Purpose – This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are usually embedded in foresight studies, are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse.Design/methodology/approach – This paper is a conceptual analysis of theoretical assumptions embedded in foresight studies.Findings – Sociological lenses, including concepts like anticipation, latency, time, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, change and plurality of images, offer clarity in terms of both futures studies and foresights.Research limitations/implications – Explicating presumptions embedded in foresight methods helps recognition of how such methods shape the concepts of future and time. This is vital for assessment of the analytical products of foresights studies.Originality/value – This research contributes to the ambition of linking the theoretical world of futures research and the ...

Evolution of foresight in the global historical context

Abstract: Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to dynamically outline the evolution of foresight in different generations of globalization and different countries. The intention is to characterize several main events, inventions and circumstances that have conducted the evolution of this pervasive method together with broader participation and a changing focus of foresight over time.Design/methodology/approach – The assumption is that foresight has evolved as a consequence of increasing uncertainties that bring globalization and technological progress, and that it is a specific form of very long‐term participative strategic planning. It is impossible to directly link the increasing uncertainties in the global environment and the spread of foresight. However, it is possible to compare the history of foresight in relation to the history of globalization through several main historical events, inventions and initiatives typical for both evolutions. These events were primarily selected based on The History of th...

Scenario planning for climate strategies development by integrating group Delphi, AHP and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to present the common use of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for the development of a future scenario in correlation with climate warming.Design/methodology/approach – A combination of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps was employed to construct a future scenario as a learning device.Findings – Based on the data, the future is not going to be so bad but also not very attractive even if it is assumed that human consciousness about global warming issues will remain high. After a few years or so it will be possible to stop negative climate processes but not possible to fix the problem in the sense that the situation we have now can be substantially improved.Practical implications – This paper is of interest for foresight practitioners and policy makers who want to employ a hybrid approach to scenario development.Originality/value – The paper is the first to ...

Five promising methods for health foresight

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to show through empirical examples how five foresight methods have provided value in medicine and global health, and to argue for greater use of health foresight.Design/methodology/approach – Through evaluation, literature search, and personal experiences, five approaches were identified where health foresight has shown strong value: forecasting, scenario planning, Delphi, technology roadmapping, and mass collaboration. For each approach, compelling examples are given, and usage and potential discussed.Findings – There is great opportunity to learn from and expand on past successes, and to customize foresight methods to help decision making in medicine and global health. The range of novel applications to date provides clear evidence that applying foresight methods to health can help prepare for the future, including development of policy and health interventions.Research limitations/implications – Metrics for the impact of health foresight are not widely used, and could be a foc...

How to turn crisis into opportunity: perception and reaction to high level of uncertainty in banking industry

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify banks' strategies in turning uncertainty into opportunities.Design/methodology/approach – Longitudinal analysis from 1990 until 2009 has been conducted to evidence factors affecting environmental uncertainty in the European banking industry and how banks have perceived and reacted to it.Findings – The paper evidences banks' strategies in situations of low and medium levels of uncertainty and suggests some behavior to face a high level of crisis.Practical implications – The paper defines a general framework, based on banks' perception and reaction to uncertainty, that can help banks to become champions in facing the current level of uncertainty.Originality/value – The paper presents a critical analysis of how to face the enormous increase of uncertainty that the financial sector is experiencing.

Making anticipatory systems more robust

Abstract: – When coping with complex, but also possibly disruptive and open‐ended social dynamics, the anticipatory system idea, which was developed by Rosen in the realm of physical and biological system observation, remains a reference framework, but one that may need to be reinforced by other theoretical considerations. This paper aims at using a debate that took place in a specific foresight discussion arena on early detection and weak signal analysis, as a constructive epistemic detour to eventually contribute to such a reinforcement of Rosen's anticipatory system proposal., – The author aims at revisiting Rosen's framework with stimulating inputs drawing upon the early detection debates, by first assessing the original concepts brought up by Ansoff in the 1970s and 1980s and its further enhancements by contemporary scholars. A rather constructivist approach is then developed to weak signal analysis, aiming at emphasising the need, in analytical situations involving social system features, for reflexive stages and capacities. Bearing this requirement in mind, the productive value of the “framing” and “meta‐framing” notions is explored, in order to apply them to Rosen's anticipatory systems and possibly contribute to enriching his original concept., – How effective the framing and meta‐framing couple can be for a series of anticipatory issues is described in a detailed manner and, then more specifically, Rosen's anticipatory system concept is revisited in the light of those inputs, aiming at putting into perspective new options for research and anticipation activities in general., – The paper is essentially conceptual and based on a rich but disputable detour by early detection and weak analysis issues so as to emphasise key reflexive references and method. However, most of this material is taken from domains rather untypical of Rosennean debates and in addition would need to be completed by a series of supportive cases, but that is beyond the scope and scale of this paper., – The paper sets clear distinctions and boundaries for when and when not to apply reflexive steps in a foresight exercise, including in the context of rolling out a Rosen type of approach. Research decision making both in the corporate and policy‐making contexts can benefit from such clues and supportive framework conditions., – Social systems are typically complex and involve multiple perspectives and viewpoints; they concern a series of major challenges to be coped with locally or more globally, at environmental, political, cultural or technological level, and in that category of anticipatory endeavor, the framing/meta‐framing epistemic couple may be of great usefulness., – Although rather conceptual, the detour proposed by the paper aims at creating a reflexive distance and enriched capability to evaluate one's potential biases and blind spots in anticipatory modelling activities.

Forecasting airplane technologies

Abstract: Purpose – Airplane technology is undergoing several exciting developments, particularly in avionics, material composites, and design tool capabilities, and, though there are many studies conducted on subsets of airplane technology, market, and economic parameters, few exist in forecasting new commercial aircraft model introduction. In fact, existing research indicates the difficulty in quantitatively forecasting commercial airplanes due in part to the complexity and quantity of exogenous factors which feed into commercial airplane introduction decisions. This paper seeks to address this gap.Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based on a literature review, supplemented by a collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying three technology forecasting techniques: multiple regression; linear regression; and the Pearl growth curve.Findings – The results provide a valid model for multiple regression and linear regression on range and composite material percentage for use in commercial...

Empirical research on the technology opportunities analysis based on morphology analysis and conjoint analysis

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach based on bibliometrics analysis (BA), morphology analysis (MA) and conjoint analysis (CA) to help identify new technology development opportunities.Design/methodology/approach – A new hybrid approach based on BA, MA and CA has been conducted to help identify new technology development opportunities. The proposed hybrid process is illustrated with a case example of blue light‐emitting diode (LED) based on GaN.Findings – In this paper, the proposed hybrid process is illustrated with a case example of document information from a blue light‐emitting diode (LED) based on GaN documents database. The results show that the configuration “Al2O3+MBE+two dimensional photonic crystal” should be given greater attention with respect to R&D activities in future.Practical implications – This paper is of interest for technology opportunities analysis practitioners and policymakers at the industrial and government levels.Originality/value – This paper ...

Analysing the future of railway freight competition: a Delphi study in Finland

Abstract: Purpose – The entire sector of railway transport is in a state of flux in Europe as deregulation and structural changes are affecting the traditional transport mode. Even though the aim has been to increase railway freight competition, markets have changed only slightly, and the market shares of incumbent railway companies are remaining high. Some EU countries have not attracted any new entrants, which is also the current situation in Finland. This paper aims to assess how the Finnish railway freight competition develops and to analyze different views on railway transport policy.Design/methodology/approach – This research work analyses a Delphi questionnaire directed at 52 Finnish experts in this branch. Responses on the questionnaire were gathered during year 2005 (competition in Finland in railway freight started 2007) within two rounds with appropriate amount of response rate. Respondents were from the public and private sectors, actors working closely with railway transports and logistics. With an exp...

Computer‐assisted roadmapping: a case study in energy research

Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology of computer‐assisted roadmapping to supplement an expert‐based approach, which is time‐consuming and subjective.Design/methodology/approach – A computer‐based approach using citation network analysis is used to depict technology trends, and build the first draft of science and technology roadmaps. A case study in energy research is performed, and emerging research domains are tracked in it by citation network analysis.Findings – The analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. The detailed research structures were investigated further by clustering. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters.Research limitations/implications – Constructing a corpus to analyze is not an easy task and one that affects the results, and therefore further research to evaluate the adequacy and validity of the corpus before citation network an...

Research on emerging technology selection and assessment by technology foresight and fuzzy consistent matrix

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix to select and assess emerging technologies.Design/methodology/approach – Through introducing technology foresight into emerging technology selection and assessment, an industrialization potential assessment indexes system of emerging technologies is constructed, and general procedures to assess the industrialization potential of emerging technologies based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix are presented.Findings – In this paper, assessment of the industrialization potential of nine different emerging technologies is provided to illustrate the application of the method. These results show that technology 1 has the best performance on industrialization potential, and technology 2 has better performance on the industrialization potential.Practical implications – This paper is of interest for emerging technology selection and assessment practitioners and polic...

Enhancing business and technology foresight with electronically mediated scenario process

Abstract: Purpose – The study discusses existing scenario methods in business and technology foresight and introduces electronically mediated scenario process in two varieties. The purpose of the study is to discuss the existing practice, position the IDEAS and SAGES methods, and outline their contribution to the state of the art.Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a literature study and conceptual discussion, illustrated with a case example of electronically mediated scenario methods.Findings – Both of the presented scenario methods, i.e. IDEAS and SAGES, are feasible means to compose scenarios. The methods can be positioned respectively to intuitive‐logical and heuristic schools of thought. The contribution to existing practice is that they consume fewer resources than do their more traditional counterparts.Research limitations/implications – The empirical validation of the presented methods is presently limited to case studies. Thus, the authors invite practitioners and researchers to exami...

Rethinking the commercialization of everyday life: a “whole economy” perspective

Abstract: Purpose – A dominant belief is that the continuing encroachment of the market economy into everyday life is inevitable, unstoppable and irreversible. Over the past decade, however, a small stream of thought has started to question this commercialization thesis. This paper seeks to contribute to this emergent body of thought by developing a “whole economy” approach for capturing the multifarious economic practices in community economies and then applying this to an English locality.Design/methodology/approach – A survey conducted of the economic practices used by 120 households in a North Nottinghamshire locality in the UK is reported here, comprising face‐to‐face interviews in an affluent, middle‐ranking and deprived neighborhood.Findings – This reveals the limited commercialization of everyday life and the persistence of a multitude of economic practices in all neighborhood‐types. Participation rates in all economic practices (except one‐to‐one unpaid work and “off‐the‐radar” unpaid work) are higher in r...

Grade inflation in the college classroom

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this article is to assess the concept of grade inflation in higher education institutions in an effort to determine its prevalence, causes, and strategies that can be implemented to curtail itDesign/methodology/approach – A literature review of the problem is presented along with several strategies as possible solutions to restraining the problem of escalating grades in the college classroomFindings – The problem of grade inflation has been a topic of concern for over a century and there are no quick fixes or simple methods of reversing this trend but there are several alternatives presented which could help curtail this trendResearch limitations/implications – Most of the research is based on anecdotal research Very little has been written on how to fix this problemPractical implications – This paper brings this issue to the forefront in an effort to engage the reader, college administrators and educatorsOriginality/value – The paper begins with an overview of previous rese

Predicting the unpredictable: dealing with risk and uncertainty in broadband roll‐out

Abstract: Purpose – The objective of this paper is to offer a validated framework for the analysis of (future) risks and uncertainties involved in the decision‐making process concerning the upgrade and roll‐out of large infrastructural projects, e.g. broadband networks. The framework classifies risks and uncertainties based on the nature of the risks, levels and sources.Design/methodology/approach – The approach takes the form of conceptual as well as qualitative and quantitative empirical analyses.Findings – Telecommunications operators are faced with various types of risks and uncertainties in their decision‐making process concerning the upgrade and roll‐out of their broadband networks. In one respect, these risks and uncertainties have to do with the characteristics of large infrastructural projects, while, on the other hand, being caused by (unknown) competitor behaviour, (unknown) end‐user demand, rapid technological development and different development paths available to operators. Framing risks and uncertai...

The Trouble with Markets – Saving Capitalism from Itself

Abstract: reasoning of theoretical economics. But in addition, they need to have a sound knowledge of history, both political, social, and economic; know how to read a balance sheet; be familiar with the issues of the present and the controversies of the past; be able to draw the right conclusion from a table of numbers; and be able to marshal an argument, backed up by numbers, to reach a practical conclusion. They do not need to master the pyrotechnics of higher mathematics that baffle the intelligentsia and even many fellow economists, never mind the hoi polloi, while simultaneously leaving anyone with serious mathematical ability speechless at the vacuity of the subject. Economics must be rooted in an acknowledgment of what it is to be human, both as regards how human beings can be assumed to behave and the values by which their activity should be judged. Homo economicus needs to be laid to rest – for good. This process has already begun with the rise of “behavioral economics,” which makes links between economics and psychology.25 This marks a major advance and it should carry the subject a good way along the road to relevance and usefulness. Nevertheless, although it might be rigorous in method, it will take the subject away from the apparent certainties and the status as a science to which it aspired. Perhaps economics will become more like medicine, with some universal truths established but much scope for variation between individuals, and with the thrust of the activity being toward the overall “wellness” of human beings. In the reformed subject, at the macro level, out must go all the ludicrous pretense that the economic system is a finely tuned, economic machine. At its center must be a recognition that Keynes was fundamentally right. It is, I suppose, noteworthy that the high priest of the New Classical school of economists who originated the idea of “rational expectations,” Robert Lucas, has said: “I guess everyone is a Keynesian in the foxhole.”26 The point is that the economic terrain is simply littered with foxholes and if we aren’t careful we are liable to spend a considerable amount of our time in one or other of them. 237 Saving Capitalism from Itself Keynes was right in three major respects: ◆ Economic activity is permeated by fundamental uncertainty. ◆ As a result, many of the major factors that affect the economy are psychological and depend critically on the state of confidence, which is not readily analyzable or predictable. ◆ Consequently, the modern economy is inherently unstable and fragile.27 These realizations will also have consequences for the study and practice of finance. The idea that the risk of an asset is adequately measured by the variability of its returns over some limited past period will have to go. Even Alan Greenspan seems to recognize this. In October 2008, he told a Congressional Committee: “The modern risk management paradigm held sway for decades... The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year... To exist you need an ideology... The question is whether it is accurate or not. And what I’m saying to you is, yes, I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact... A flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works, so to speak.” After this failure, those who seek to minimize the risk and ensure the stability of institutions and port folios will have to stop measuring and computing quite so much and start thinking and imagining rather more. There will still be a place for some people to approach economics from a highly mathematical standpoint and to study and develop the intricacies of general equilibrium theory – but only a few. Some societies have financed a priestly class to perform ceremonial activities and to preserve the knowledge of what life was like in bygone times. Something similar may be nice for us. But it isn’t very useful to have hundreds of thousands of people doing this – let alone pontificating on the basis of such expertise about how society should be run today. Interestingly, some individuals with a high capacity for abstract and mathematical reasoning have taken very different attitudes to economics. Max Planck, the eminent physicist, decided not to study the subject because he 238 The Trouble with Markets thought it was too difficult. On the other hand, Bertrand Russell, the eminent philosopher and logician, gave it a miss because he thought that it was too easy. In a sense they were both right. Keynes spelled out what a good economist should be like. He wrote: The study of economics does not seem to require any specialized gifts of an unusually high order. Is it not, intellectually regarded, a very easy subject compared with the higher branches of philosophy or pure science? An easy subject, at which very few excel! The paradox finds its explanation, perhaps, in that the master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher – in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular in terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature or his institutions must lie entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood; as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near the earth as a politician.28 I am far from confident that this is how economics will develop in the years ahead. Largely insulated from its beloved market forces, the economics “profession” could easily meander on into genteel irrelevance, if not oblivion, leaving the field clear for – who knows what? Nevertheless, this need not happen. Hopefully, a period of much needed soul searching will lead on to renewal and revival. So there is a viable, prosperous, and secure future for us all, even for economists, given vigorous reforms designed to save capitalism from itself, and economics from the failed rocket scientists. However, it will need to be a different capitalism that emerges from this process – one more suited to the realities and challenges of the twenty-first century. I have a few ideas about what that capitalism might be like. Conclusion: The Future of Capitalism All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.

Ecoliteracy and Dewey's educational philosophy: implications for future leaders

Abstract: Purpose – This conceptual paper aims to explore ecoliteracy in education as originated in Fritjof Capra's ongoing efforts to foster ecological awareness through schools. Future leaders as ecoliterate will have developed an enhanced perception, a sense of value‐judgment in experience and sustainable self and other relations.Design/methodology/approach – The argument is supported by contemporary science of the complementary pairs as based on coordination dynamics.Findings – The paper presents Capra's work positioning it alongside new “transdisciplinary education”. The paper argues for the critical examination of the particular structure of knowledge able to inform/develop ecoliteracy, as well as of the nature of educational leadership.Originality/value – The paper revisits John Dewey's philosophy and his pragmatic inquiry as especially significant for developing ecological thinking and presents his method of deliberation as remarkably similar to “imaginative narrative”, one of the methodologies of futures s...

The certainty of uncertainty: risk management revisited

Abstract: Purpose – The objective of this paper is to scan flagrant cases of uncertainty and hesitation in the conception of plans and strategy and to assess new results in risk management.Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses outstanding examples, present and past (and some future), of both risk taking and risk aversion and their concrete consequences – whether action follows or is blocked by lack of certitude or perhaps confidence.Findings – The paper shows that the wilful overcoming of missing assuredness may incur, in its turn, hazardous risk.Originality/value – The paper illustrates the roles of knowledge, precautions wisely taken, and being willing or hesitating to risk the sometimes long shot.

Foresight on Taiwan nanotechnology industry in 2020

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwan's nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the RD the maturation time of most techniques will be 2010‐2015; Nanocomposite Material Technique, Nano Optoelectronic and Optical Communication, and Nano Storage show relatively high competitiveness. Self‐R&D and Technology introduced from overseas are the major development methods in 2020.Practical implications – The paper is of interest to foresight practitioners and policy makers at the industri...

Exploring the future through creative competition: The RWS2020-project

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to argue that utilising foresight becomes a more useful tool to organisational management, if the innovative technique of “creative competition” is applied. In an empirical analysis, it seeks to show how the technique of creative competition was used in a scenario‐project. The case study shows how and why the technique of creative competition “worked”. These findings will then be used to explore the broader application of creative competition in organisational foresight.Design/methodology/approach – The study first elaborates theoretically on the difference between “forecast” and “foresight” and explores how the addition of the organisational dimension to these terms changes their meanings. It then focuses on the organisation that commissioned the study – Rijkswaterstaat – and describes its history with respect to exploring the future and certain other relevant contextual elements of the case study, such as how the project was organised. After that, it conceptualises the RWS2020 ...

Military technology development: a future‐based approach using scenarios

Abstract: Purpose – The threat environment countries face is a dynamic one, with many emerging technologies. This paper presents unique challenges as countries evaluate which technologies to pursue in support of national security. Rather than addressing a broad range of strategic options, this paper limits its scope to a single type of aircraft. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology to counter the most likely future threats to a long‐range strike aircraft.Design/methodology/approach – To address future threats, the paper examined the most likely course of technology development within the context of various alternative futures. To decompose general threat scenarios into specific risk scenarios, the risk filtering, ranking, and management (RFRM) framework was used. After identifying the most significant risk scenarios, decision tree analysis provided insight into whether or not to pursue a given technology (e.g. electromagnetic pulse hardening, redundant control structures, etc.).Findings –...

Anticipation and future vision in Nicolai Hartmann's ontology

Abstract: Purpose – This article aims to explore anticipation from an ontological point of view and to analyze in particular some of Nicolai Hartmann's ideas.Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a conceptual analysis of an ontological theory of anticipation.Findings – Analyzing philosophical problems related to “futures” and “anticipation”, to the framework of modal categories, and connecting Hartmann with Ludwig von Bertalanffy and comparing the outcome with some Artistotelian theses, offers a philosophical perspective on futures studies.Research limitations/implications – The “human” phenomenon of anticipation will be defined as possibly the only form of authentic anticipation, interpreted as a teleological act.Originality/value – The result is obtained through the distinction, articulated for each level of reality, among different kinds of determination.

Failure of foresight: had the Cold War more than one origin?

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to recall, with specific developments in international relations, how the major powers failed to avoid prolonged political conflict that teetered for a half‐century on the brink of war.Design/methodology/approach – Evocation of developments tending to confirm reciprocal hostility instead of cooperation between partners in international enterprise.Findings – Foresight and determination, often translatable into expression of trust, may ensure the success of an undertaking. The Cold War, with its political as well as psychological origins, was not such a case.Research limitations/implications – The period's history, now already detailed, remains incomplete. This paper is an effort to supplement other reconstructions.Originality/value – Planners, strategists and designers may profit from the material reviewed to avoid hostile interpretation by partners in future efforts of combined initiative.

On the use of studies of the future for organizational change in Dutch government ministries

Abstract: Purpose – An uncertain future means that Dutch government ministries need to think about not only what new policies have to be developed, but also how to organize themselves in the future. This paper aims to present an overview and analysis of various studies of the futures by and about Dutch ministries that show that these studies vary considerably, in terms of their process and cause, that the context in which they come about plays a major role and that the various ministries tend to take the same trends into account (for instance ‘‘life-long-learning’’, sustainable development and the emergence of the demanding citizen). Design/methodology/approach – The paper case studies: 11 different reports from nine different Dutch ministries. In each ministry an in-depth interview with one or two representatives was held. The transcripts were summarized, structured, and analyzed. Findings – The use of studies of the future for organizational change in Dutch ministries is very diverse. More and more images and other ways of visualizing the future are becoming important. Dutch ministries should find a good balance between hiring external expertise and using inside knowledge and expertise. Research limitations/implications – Because this is a case study it is questionable whether the findings are also valid for non-researched ministries, especially since the research ministries and (their) studies of the future are very diverse. Practical implications – More discussion is needed about these futures studies in the Government-wide Strategic Council. Government-wide studies of the future should be made to provide ministries with a common background in building up a future vision for (more balanced) policy making. There should be more involvement of external experts and stakeholders in the process of futures studies.