Showing papers in "Futures in 1999"

TL;DR: This work portrays these systems as Self-Organizing Holarchic Open (SOHO) systems and interpret their behaviours and structures with reference to non-equilibrium thermodynamics: holons, propensities and canons; and information and attractors.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the problems of risks and governance in the light of three well-known examples: the ''Seveso'' accident involving dioxin; the BSE epidemic; and the licensing of genetically modified maize.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that scientific questions, which relate directly to society, were researched in a ''dialogical'' manner, and ways would be sought to understand the concerned individuals, populations or stakeholders.

TL;DR: A recent Australian study sought to obtain a better understanding of what young people expect and want of their country in 2010, and to assess the value of scenarios as an investigative tool as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: In this article, a distinction between internal and external rhetoric highlights the problematic relationship between scientific and political work, for example in the field of environmental issues, and the usefulness of rhetoric for an enterprise that wants to go beyond the normal science of puzzle-solving.

TL;DR: In this article, Latour et al. describe an approach to the operationalisation of extended peer communities that deploys uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy, and examines the crucial role of trust.

TL;DR: The work of Gregory Bateson, particularly his principles for a new kind of science which, in 1958, had as yet no satisfactory name, is revisited as a foundation for post-normal science and adaptive approaches to management of complex environmental problems as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how the need for the UK Foresight programme is constructed and how that need is defined and shaped in relation to past UK science and technology policies.

TL;DR: This article reviews four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology and finds that they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.

TL;DR: In the past, communities tended to be closed systems with relatively clear boundaries, stable memberships, and few linkages to other communities as discussed by the authors, and the impacts of mobility are far less than those of information and communications technology.

TL;DR: For a Brussels Seminar at the European Commission, a double hypothesis was proposed: that we are in transition to a transmodern way of thinking that combines intuition and spirituality with rational brainwork; and that 21st century conflicts will likely be not between religions or cultures but within them, between premodern, modern, and transmodern worldviews as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: A simple method is presented, using group decision support systems (GDSS), for eliciting anonymous comments and preparing consistent probability estimates concerning interdependent events and is illustrated by using it to perform a cross-impact analysis concerning the future of Hong Kong.

TL;DR: A “bottom-down” health care system would see the hospital become once again the place of last resort (but still a potentially important partner in creating healthier communities) and would focus instead on how to provide health promotion and health care from the household level up.

TL;DR: In this paper, a soft complex system model of the relationships between these processes, illustrated with examples from the history of air quality management in the UK, is proposed, with wider application in the understanding of other complex issues of environmental management.

TL;DR: The future of politics is thus conceived to be pervaded by contradictions, ambiguities, and uncertainties as discussed by the authors, and a continuous flow of ideas, money, goods, and people that is rendering long-standing territorial boundaries increasingly obsolete and fostering an extensive decentralization of authority.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors define futures studies and answer two questions: what is a futurist, and how can one become a future studies professional, and summarise various proposals for establishing standards including Bell's for a code of ethics.

TL;DR: A comprehensive theory of social development is needed that treats human beings as the center of the development process and integrates all its economic, political, social, and cultural factors as discussed by the authors, where the authors describe the central role of organization in social development; "surplus human energy" as both condition and fuel for the process; the role of conscious individual pioneers who express subconscious social aspirations; imitation as the mechanism for social diffusion.

TL;DR: In this paper, a discussion of the uncertainties most prevalent in forecasting, as a means to show with what respect they must be treated, is presented, with some special references to air traffic.

TL;DR: This paper discusses the use of scenarios in the context of community development and explores three basic types of scenarios—`the official future', `hard times' and paradigm shift or visionary scenarios.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that inserting the community building approach into policymaking can produce better policies that reflect the wisdom, experience and voice of local constituency and propose a strategy for improving policymaking by transforming the policy process itself into one that builds community.

TL;DR: This article conducted a qualitative study of the transformative learning experiences of 14 men and women, mostly Canadians, who viewed the planet as a precious, interdependent system and demonstrated this awareness in their daily activities and relationships.

TL;DR: The paper recounts and analyses the NewsPad experience and tells a story of the explicit implementation of the sociotechnical constituencies theoretical approach to guide and inform the innovation process in highly uncertain conditions.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze the Cyprus conflict from a realist perspective based on the assumption that it has implications for regional and global security and propose that the futures of Cyprus are going to be determined by the strategic interests of the actors involved and, second, that unification of the island is becoming a more distant possibility.

TL;DR: In this paper, three global initiatives are essential: (1) a drought early-warning system; (2) international desertification research centers; and (3) an international program to develop water resource technologies.

TL;DR: In this article, a sweep of the horizon at the end of the twentieth century shows ten transformations going on at once, all related to the global spread of knowledge, and the implications for learning are huge, from pre-school to higher education.

TL;DR: The authors suggests that well-known global trends lead toward futures that no-one would choose and that we should seek to avoid, in part because they take refuge in strategies of avoidance, especially those available through modern technology.