Showing papers in "Journal of Policy Modeling in 1997"

TL;DR: In this article, the authors test for cointegration between total energy consumption, real income, and price level of two highly energy dependent East-Asian NICs: Korea and Taiwan.

TL;DR: In this article, a systematic method for parametric sensitivity analysis based on the Gaussian quadrature procedure for numerical integration is presented, which is compared to those of Harrison and Vinod and of Pagan and Shannon for the case of a computable general equilibrium model due to Walley and Wigle.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate saving and investment correlations for 58 developing countries in order to assess the degree of capital mobility in the Feldstein-Horioka sense for these countries.

TL;DR: In this article, the effects of recent Turkish financial liberalization reforms on the real economy are investigated with the aid of a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates financial markets, and the model is used for conducting counterfactual and comparative static simulation experiments to analyze three sets of issues: (1) the real side effects of the government's mode of financing its fiscal deficit through debt instruments or monetization; (2) the effect of deregulation of the public debt instrument issuing rules on the financial markets; and (3) the domestic implications of the continued external debt servicing and the foreign exchange

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present general equilibrium evaluations of the MERCOSUL and three scenarios are examined, varying from increased world regionalism to an optimistic multilateral situation, showing that welfare gains are significant for Uruguay, somewhat less for Argentina, and also present in Brazil.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the Turkish experience in the last 15 years and emphasized the importance of coordination of fiscal and monetary policies in achieving price stability, showing that despite the rapidly changing financial environment, there are stationary long-run money-income relationships.

TL;DR: In this paper, the evidence in support of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rates for the Canadian dollar, Deutschemark, Yen, and Pound over the 1974-1993 period is presented.

TL;DR: In this article, an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000 is presented. And the results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade.

TL;DR: In this paper, the extent of pass-through in export prices and the relative importance of pricing-to-market effect were evaluated. But the results showed that Japanese exporters respond to the exchange rate variations by slow passthrough and also by price discriminate between domestic and foreign markets.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that for policy purposes, the most important issue involves restructuring government expenditures and their financing in a manner that would provide the maximum inducement to private-sector capital formation, especially in manufacturing.

TL;DR: In this article, the demand for pollution control equipment from 1973 to 1991 by those U.S. manufacturing industries that are highly sensitive to environmental regulation was examined and a relationship between political factors and economic decision making on the part of the industries was established.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate the demand function of housing for Bombay Metropolitan Region in a two-step econometric analysis, in which the first step estimates the hedonic price index for different regions in Bombay, and in the second step the demand for housing is estimated as a function of economic and household characteristics.

TL;DR: The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) is faced with the task of estimating levels of demand for its products and services both in the short run and the long run as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors use an explicit intertemporal international trade general equilibrium model to analyze the consequences of trade liberalization covering banking services and construct a numerical example in which all consumers in both countries are made unambiguously worse off with free trade in banking services compared to an equilibrium with no trade in banks.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test the hypothesis that intra-household calorie allocation in rural West Java responds to differences in children's labor contributions to the household, and also suggest that male children's health is valued more highly by households in the surveyed village than that of female children even after current labor contributions are accounted for.

TL;DR: In this article, the import demand behavior of Korea was analyzed using detrending method with a structural break in analyzing import demand behaviour of Korea, and all concerned variables were revealed to be trend stationary.

TL;DR: In this paper, flexible policy rules that tie program instrument settings to changes in market conditions can improve economic welfare compared to the prevailing practice in the United States of setting agricultural policy instruments at fixed levels once every 4 years.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new method of estimating and testing the Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost (LQAC) model of money demand is proposed, based on a loss function expressed in terms of real money balances.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a simulation model to assess the consequences of government's trying to raise revenues through financial repression in developing countries and found that the policies appear to be detrimental to private capital formation, while the effect on government expenditures is repression-measure specific.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared the price stabilizing impact of private stock holding with a centrally imposed bandwidth price policy (buffer stock) on the basis of monthly data of the Indian natural rubber market covering the period 1978-1991.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the implications of private storage and subsidized distribution of foodgrain for price stabilization policies in India through simulation exercises, and used a multi-market equilibrium approach to incorporate the simultaneity in the determination of supply and demand for the three major cereals.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ an empirical general equilibrium model of the CAP to determine which factors and countries would be expected to be opposed to or support reform of theCAP, and the results confirm the importance of sidepayments in the implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement.

TL;DR: In this paper, it is proved via cointegration techniques that inflation uncertainty in Greece is described well by an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) process over the period 1975-93, following the deregulation of the monetary system in 1988 and in terms of capturing money demand structural instabilities.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose to incorporate information contained in alternative forecasts obtained through an expert opinion, an econometric model, or a set target into a univariate ARIMA model.

TL;DR: This paper examined the impact of domestic money markets on Eurocurrecy interest rates by taking into consideration the exchange rate changes for the case of four countries, namely, United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan over the 1975-1993 time period.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors test for a liquidity effect by utilizing a Kalman filter and find that monetary innovations lowered interest rates in 51 out of the 120 quarters in their sample.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated whether family-planning programs can cause a significant fertility decline in a country characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development, based on the application of the following dynamic time-series techniques in a multivariate context: cointegration, vector error-correction modeling, variance decomposition, and impulse response functions.

TL;DR: The authors analyzes the transmission effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a large country on output abroad using a two-country sticky-price monetary model with adjustment lags incorporated into the goods sectors of the countries.