Showing papers in "Policy Sciences in 1982"
TL;DR: The acceptance of large-scale technologies depends upon a wide range of things, some related to safety and economics, but also some factors of cultural, social and psychological significance as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The social acceptability of large-scale technologies depends upon a wide range of things, some related to safety and economics, but also some factors of cultural, social and psychological significance. However, many risk analysts assume that public opposition to technologies is mostly due to unfounded fears of their risks and, that there can exist quantitative criteria of “acceptable risk” that could allow the acceptability of technologies to be judged. This paper traces the emergence of the “acceptable risk” problem formulation and reviews critically some of the approaches that have been put forward to “solve” it. It concludes by discussing the problem of acceptable technology returned to its wider political and cultural context.
188 citations
TL;DR: The authors explored a number of different modes of policy analysis to determine the circumstances in which the application of each is appropriate and argued that each mode is appropriate only under a limited set of conditions; many of the problems policy analysis encounters are a result of attempts to apply a mode outside its niche.
Abstract: Any piece of policy analysis must be appropriate to the context of its intended use. Social science often fails as policy analysis due to insensitivity to context. This paper explores a number of different modes of policy analysis to determine the circumstances in which the application of each is appropriate. It is argued that each mode is appropriate only under a fairly limited set of conditions; many of the problems policy analysis encounters are a result of attempts to apply a mode outside its niche. Greater use should be made of what is developed here as a hermeneutic model of policy analysis, appropriate in a residual set of conditions which none of the traditional models of policy analysis copes with adequately.
146 citations
TL;DR: The authors places policy succession in the context of policy change, sketches a model which describes the distinctive features of the policy succession process, outlines the various kinds of policy succession which occur, and draws out some implications for policy makers.
Abstract: This paper suggests that the policy model assumed by most writers on policy analysis neglects the implications of the fact that most “new” policies in contemporary Western political systems are in fact replacing old policies, and that this is increasingly likely to be the case. Similarly, the recent interest in “policy termination” is partly misplaced since it fails to follow through adequately the implications of the fact that most policy terminations lead to policy succession. Accordingly, there is a need to study and analyse the processes involved in policy succession. This paper places policy succession in the context of policy change, sketches a model which describes the distinctive features of the policy succession process, outlines the various kinds of policy succession which occur, and draws out some implications for policy makers resulting from the increasing importance of policy succession.
86 citations
TL;DR: A pilot study of alternatives' design in organizations suggests that already in the design stage choice focuses on a few alternatives, highlighting the importance of design in affecting the quality of outcomes as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The design of alternative courses of action is an essential part of decision-making, but one which has been neglected in theory and practice. A pilot study of alternatives' design in organizations suggests that already in the design stage choice focuses on a few alternatives, highlighting the importance of design in affecting the quality of outcomes. Design may be search or creativity, or a blend of both. While search is probably a significant part of design, there may be a residue of basically irrational creativity. These observations suggest that design should be deliberately undertaken in decision- and policy-making, by intensifying search, developing and utilizing design methods, and providing organizational creativity-enhancing environments.
78 citations
TL;DR: This paper reviewed the relevant literature in the hope that it might eventually contribute to more enlightened evaluations of the emerging discipline of policy sciences, including the adoption of more modest but realizable aspirations and the synthesis of diverse methods-qualitative as well as quantitative, exploratory, and confirmatory.
Abstract: The preceding evaluation of the policy sciences by Schneider, Stevens, and Tornatzky is based on a rather narrow conception of science that emphasizes quantitative and rigorous methods. It overlooks the limitations of such methods, as revealed by the results of applications, and certain adjustments to these limitations. The latter include the adoption of more modest but realizable aspirations and the synthesis of diverse methods-qualitative as well as quantitative, exploratory as well as confirmatory. It also overlooks differences and trends in epistemological preconceptions that underlie the conduct of research and the interpretation of research results. This article reviews the relevant literature in the hope that it might eventually contribute to more enlightened evaluations of the emerging discipline.
42 citations
TL;DR: The administration of the employee-owned or worker cooperative firm must provide for two conceptually separable functions: organizational governance and the management of work as discussed by the authors, and three theoretical models tend to shape the thinking of those who design the organization: authoritarian, bargaining and town meeting or community democracy.
Abstract: The administration of the employee-owned or worker cooperative firm must provide for two conceptually separable functions: organizational governance and the management of work. Three theoretical models tend to shape the thinking of those who design the organization: authoritarian, bargaining, and town meeting or community democracy.
34 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, it is argued that framework differences are fundamental to the debate over soft and hard energy paths and that such differences are not susceptible to factual resolution, and that the debate has taken on the character of a ritualized performance, as each side strives to convince not their opponents but policymakers of the rightness of their opinion.
Abstract: A common view of the energy problem holds that what is at stake in most energy policy debates are questions of fact that are in principle susceptible to resolution by objective, scientific research. It is argued in this paper that this view is misguided, and that underlying many of the factual issues apparently in dispute are differences at the framework level, that is differences in basic presuppositions and the patterns of thinking employed. By means of an examination of the debate over soft and hard energy paths, it will be argued that framework differences are fundamental to that debate and that such differences are not susceptible to factual resolution. As a result, the debate has taken on the character of a ritualized performance, as each side strives to convince, not their opponents, but policymakers of the rightness of their opinion. Some of the implications of these findings for energy policymaking are explored.
32 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a content analysis was conducted on 181 randomly sampled articles published in nine leading social policy journals from 1975 through 1980 to obtain a methodological and substantive profile of the state of the art of the policy sciences.
Abstract: A content analysis was conducted on 181 randomly sampled articles published in nine leading social policy journals from 1975 through 1980. The purpose of the study was to obtain a methodological and substantive profile of the state of the art of the policy sciences. Results indicate the existence of two prevailing types of policy analysis: quantitative-empirical and rhetorical-discussive.
30 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest that the concept of welfare economy more fully captures the economic interpenetration of public and private sectors, and that government increasingly intervenes through processes of mandating, stimulating, regulating, and supporting, using private enterprise as the vehicle for delivering welfare services.
Abstract: The “welfare state” concept hides an important aspect of modern industrial societies. In capitalist countries welfare is provided through a mixture of public and private initiatives. The author suggests that the concept “welfare economy” more fully captures the economic interpenetration of public and private sectors. The growth of fringe benefits illustrates the extent to which private enterprise performs the welfare function. Government increasingly intervenes through processes of mandating, stimulating, regulating, and supporting, using private enterprise as the vehicle for delivery of welfare services. Government's traditionally conceived role as welfare service provider is also changed through recognition that it is both an employer and purchaser, significantly impacting society's original income distribution.
22 citations
TL;DR: In an effort to improve the strategic assessment capabilities of the U.S. Department of Defense, contractors were asked to integrate advanced wargaming techniques with other analytic approaches as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: In an effort to improve the strategic assessment capabilities of the U.S. Department of Defense, contractors were asked to integrate advanced wargaming techniques with other analytic approaches. This paper sets out the deficiences in past and current analysis methods which the project sponsor wished to have the contractors address.
13 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify those factors that a creative, innovative administrator can use to advantage in a period of fiscal constraints to bring about innovation and also identify types of innovations that are likely to succeed.
Abstract: Beginning in the mid-1970s, fiscal limitation laws, shrinking revenue bases in older cities, and reductions in state and federal grants all have reduced the resources available to carry out the functions of local government. What do these changes portend for the amount of innovation in local government, the types of innovations that are introduced, and the processes of introduction? This paper examines these questions by reviewing the literature on factors related to innovation in public service agencies and reorienting its implications in the new fiscal environment. We conclude that on the whole the innovative process in the public sector has fallen on hard times. Yet, we identify those factors that a creative, innovative administrator can use to advantage in a period of fiscal constraints to bring about innovation. We also identify types of innovations that are likely to succeed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify five basic values of higher education: equality, excellence, autonomy, accountability and efficiency, and analyze their occurrence in Swedish higher education, as well as the specific tradeoffs arrived at within the framework of that policy.
Abstract: Public policies represent tradeoffs between values. Policy analysts should see one of their main tasks as identifying the nature of such tradeoffs, both as a general phenomenon and as they vary between specific policy areas. In this article five basic values of higher education are identified: equality, excellence, autonomy, accountability and efficiency. Their occurrence in Swedish higher education is analyzed, as well as the specific tradeoffs arrived at within the framework of that policy.
TL;DR: In this article, the importance of non-financial factors in decisions to purchase residential solar heating systems during these early stages of market penetration and discusses the implications these factors have for policy design.
Abstract: During 1975–1980, U.S. solar policy emphasized financial incentives to potential purchasers as the primary means of stimulating the introduction and spread of residential solar heating systems. This article examines the importance of nonfinancial factors in decisions to purchase residential solar heating systems during these early stages of market penetration and discusses the implications these factors have for policy design. Drawing upon research on the diffusion of innovations, on the effectiveness of income tax credits for solar heating systems, and on solar energy system purchasing decisions themselves, the argument is developed that nonfinancial factors such as system reliability, warranty protection, environmental concerns, adequate information about system costs and performance, and confidence in system suppliers and installers are at least as important as initial system cost to early purchasers. These considerations were not reflected in U.S. solar policy to the extent warranted. As a result, that policy failed to promote the balanced development of all elements essential to a viable residential solar heating industry and probably failed to alter the intentions of many prospective solar system purchasers. The reasons U.S. policymakers were relatively insensitive to nonfinancial factors are discussed and an alternative strategy for increasing the rate of market penetration of residential solar heating systems is offered.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined patterns of membership in neighborhood associations in a revitalized neighborhood in a large midwestern city and assessed the extent of participation in local associations, its effect on revitalization, and differences between old-timers and newcomers.
Abstract: This study examines patterns of membership in neighborhood associations in a revitalized neighborhood in a large midwestern city. The neighborhood is ethnically heterogenous and working class. The research assesses the extent of participation in local associations, its effect on revitalization, and differences between old-timers and newcomers.
TL;DR: In this paper, a new method for automating political-military games as a means of analyzing strategic forces was recently developed and demonstrated by The Rand Corporation, which drew upon the discipline used to develop models and the flexibility inherent in gaming to develop its automated wargame.
Abstract: A new method for automating political-military games as a means of analyzing strategic forces was recently developed and demonstrated by The Rand Corporation. Interest in this technique sprang from dissatisfaction with the dominant methods of analyzing strategic forces: manual political-military games and force exchange models. While each brings important capabilities to the analysis of strategic forces, neither method can independently handle all of the variables required to satisfy the current demands placed on strategic analysis. Rand drew upon the discipline used to develop models and the flexibility inherent in gaming to develop its automated wargame. The method promises significant improvement over the traditional methods of strategic analysis in breadth of input and flexibility of application.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue for closer examination of the nature of representation and accountability in these little studied creatures of governance and introduce the subsequent articles addressed to the subject, and argue that the American system has authorized privately constituted citizen governing boards to spend tax dollars, make and implement policy choices, and evaluate outcomes.
Abstract: A convergence of functions, financing and governance arrangements between “public” and “private” sectors of society cloud the study and understanding of policy making, implementation and evaluation. Forces creating and shaping the interpenetrated society are trends toward professionalism and corporatism. The health industry provides an example. Increasingly, but with little formal guidance from political theory, the American system has authorized privately constituted citizen governing boards to spend tax dollars, make and implement policy choices, and evaluate outcomes. This essay argues for closer examination of the nature of representation and accountability in these little studied creatures of governance and introduces the subsequent articles addressed to the subject.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors trace misconceptions about the use of models to the existence of different conceptions of the term “model.” Policy models are quite often less theory-based than models in the traditional disciplines, especially in cases where the policy models deal with the long-term developments of sociotechnical systems.
Abstract: With the increasing use of complex computer models for high-level policy decisionmaking, the problem of correctly interpreting and communicating model results becomes a more general concern. This paper traces misconceptions about the use of models to the existence of different conceptions of the term “model.” Policy models are quite often less theory-based than models in the traditional disciplines, especially in cases where the policy models deal with the long-term developments of sociotechnical systems. The authors examine the use of an example of one such model. Generalising from the authors' experiences in other fields of application, e.g., global modeling, the problems of interpreting model results are discussed. The proper use of future-oriented policy models is clarified by the introduction of typologies implying distinctions, e.g., between forecasting, “what-if,” and learning models, and between different “levels” of results, viz. model outcomes, model inferences and policy-issue oriented interpretations.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relationship between public and private boards in an "interpenetrated" society, where public-private interests are inextricably intertwined.
Abstract: In complex societies formal power, legitimacy, and responsibility are typically allocated to councils, or governing boards. This is an old strand in American political culture, strengthened by the growth of private not-for-profit organizations and concern for citizens' representation. It is also a growing trend in Great Britain, West Germany, and other modern societies. Such boards are often taken for granted; we think we understand them, hence the value of investigating the “obvious.” In this essay they are examined with respect to their external and internal relations (or structure), their problems and performance (or processes), and the blurred nature of their authority in an “interpenetrated” society where public and private interests are inextricably intertwined. Illustrations are derived from the author's research in the governance of labor union locals, municipal governments and reform movements, urban renewal efforts, community mental health centers, and private hospital governing boards.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose four criteria to evaluate the implementation of U.S. federal grant agency project processing procedures: anonymity, non-perversity, implementation of program goals and adequacy.
Abstract: This paper proposes four criteria to evaluate the implementation of U.S. federal grant agency project processing procedures. The criteria - anonymity, non-perversity, implementation of program goals and adequacy - go beyond the arguments over rational-analytic versus incremental policymaking by suggesting criteria which both models can meet. Examples of two federal programs' selection procedures are used to illustrate the applicability of, and divergency from, the proposed criteria. The paper concludes with a discussion of the factors important to administrators in selecting project processing procedures.
TL;DR: In this article, a hybrid estimation model and the technique of ridge regression combined with two stage least squares are developed to estimate the model's parameters and tested using data from a psychometric survey of citizen attitudes and beliefs regarding contemporary socially sensitive issues.
Abstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly useful tool for aiding decisionmakers in dealing with complex public and private sector decisions involving multiple objectives and uncertainty. An outgrowth of this discipline is “Risk Assessment,” which in part concerns how citizen attitudes, risks, and benefits regarding social issues evolve. It is hypothesized that such attitudes and beliefs are determined interactively. A general simultaneous equation model is developed consistent with this hypothesis. A hybrid estimation model and the technique of ridge regression combined with two stage least squares are developed to estimate the model's parameters and tested using data from a psychometric survey of citizen attitudes and beliefs regarding contemporary socially sensitive issues. The results verify the validity of the model and technique. The utility of this model for the policy making process as well as future theoretical and applied research are discussed.
TL;DR: In this paper, a novel approach to radio regulation is proposed that combines economic incentives with new methods for identifying audience preferences such that a profit-maximizing radio industry would serve more tastes than are presently served.
Abstract: While radio is America's most abundant medium, its content is characterized more by sameness than by diversity. Stations find it more profitable to duplicate mass appeal programming formats than to program to minority tastes. Such rational business decisions come at the expense of the listening audience which is given few formats from which to choose. The regulatory system, which speaks to the value of program diversity, has been unsuccessful in creating effective incentives to foster radio diversity. The article suggests a novel approach to radio regulation that combines economic incentives with new methods for identifying audience preferences such that a profit-maximizing radio industry would serve more tastes than are presently served.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that moral responsibility depends on neither causes nor intentions, but is a matter of answerability to a community of obligation, and that only individuals are responsible, for collective actions as well as personal ones.
Abstract: Responsibility depends on neither causes nor intentions. It is a matter of answerability to a community of obligation. Only individuals are responsible, for collective actions as well as personal ones. Responsibility is both political and moral. Politics give substance to moral responsibility. Political forms, in turn, reflect the prevailing structure of moral responsibility. Both policy makers and policy analysts can be held responsible; this act itself, however, must be done responsibly.
TL;DR: In his paper entitled "A Program to Improve Analytic Methods Related to Strategic Games," Andrew Marshall notes at least three potential user groups for war gaming in the Department of Defense (DoD) as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In his paper entitled "A Program to Improve Analytic Methods Related to Strategic Games," Andrew Marshall notes at least three potential user groups for war gaming in the Department of Defense (DoD). They are: (1) Those interested in making assessments of military balances; (2) Those involved in evaluating alternative force programs, and (3) Those involved in evaluating operational plans. He then goes on to specify the desired features of future wargames. In essence, I am in complete agreement with every point made by Marshall. My concern is for what has not been said, not for what has been said. I am a dedicated believer in the future of war gaming both for military and nonmilitary purposes. I served briefly as a consultant to Science Applications Inc. (SAI) at the early stages of its project; and as a consultant for many years to The Rand Corporation I had the pleasure of working with Herb Goldhamer, Olaf Helmer, Bill Jones, Ed Paxon and several others who all have played an important role in the development of gaming. I am not an impartial viewer of gaming but a proponent. As such I found that I was simultaneously pleased and disappointed by both the Rand and SAI papers. One of the major themes in Clausewitz' great book is that one should distinguish the science and techniques of war from the social process of war which includes politicomilitary communication and military organization. Research and technical knowledge are far different from institutional change and modification of procedures. There is much to be done in research and development on the basic techniques of gaming. There is also much to be done in the ulitization of gaming methods both as an educational device and as a planning tool here and now. The paper by Martin and Olin has stressed the man-machine utilization of gaming methods for better strategic warfare analysis. The paper by Graubard and Builder lays emphasis upon totally computerized war gaming in a manner reminiscent of some of the innovative suggestions of Edward Parson. They suggest (almost parodoxically) that the computerization of the players will make the game more transparent. The style of the three papers completely identifies to me three highly different
TL;DR: The article discusses the development of gaming as a tool of analysis, gives an overview of SAI's conceptual architecture, and summarizes the design of the supporting computer and software system.
Abstract: This article is a summary description of the research carried out by Science Applications, Inc. (SAI) in 1980–1981 to improve methods of strategic analysis. “People-in-the-loop” gaming, with extensive support from computer simulations, automated data bases, and an interactive computer and display system are at the heart of SAI's methodology. The basic approach proposed for achieving the Department of Defense (DoD) improvement objectives is to integrate state-of-the-art techniques into an operating system for strategic warfare analysis, so as to allow DoD staffs routinely to include important factors that often are neglected. The article discusses the development of gaming as a tool of analysis, gives an overview of SAI's conceptual architecture, and summarizes the design of the supporting computer and software system.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the role of risk and cost-benefit analysis as an instrument of social decision-making and present a critique of Hosticka's position. But they focus on the epistemological environment in which the technique is applied, rather than the inherent value of these techniques for granted.
Abstract: We have read Professor Hosticka's comments on our "Biology-Policy Interface" article with great interest. In essence, Hosticka has concluded that our critical assessment of riskand cost-benefit analysis is focussed on one narrow area (i.e., deficiencies in the epistemological environment in which the technique is applied) and that we take the inherent value of these techniques for granted. In turn, Hosticka provides a description of other problems which he thinks are more important in the evaluation of cost-benefit analysis as an instrument of social decision making. We are somewhat ambivalent about Hosticka's commentary. On the one hand, he has raised interesting and useful questions concerning the role of riskand cost-benefit analysis. On the other hand, it is our contention that he has based his case on a critique of how these techniques have been used or misused rather than how they can or should be used. We will divide our remarks into two sections: (i) a reaffirmation of our original thesis, and (ii) a critique of Hosticka's position.