Showing papers in "Population Research and Policy Review in 1991"

Public attitudes toward genetic testing.

Abstract: This article, which reports the results of a telephone survey of a national sample of the adult US population, was designed as a first measure of attitudes in an area likely to undergo significant change over the next few years. Among the major findings: (1) First, attitudes toward prenatal testing are overwhelmingly favorable at this time, with about two thirds of the respondents saying they would want to undergo such tests themselves (or would want their partner to do so) and believing that the tests will do more good than harm. (2) Second, information about the new technology is not yet widely dispersed in society, and knowledge is unrelated to attitudes in any of the areas we measured. (3) Third, attitudes toward testing for genetic defects and attitudes toward abortion if tests are positive appear to be quite distinct so far. (4) Fourth, the particular conception of genetic defects held by the respondent influences preferences for abortion but not preferences for testing. (5) Fifth, testing for fetal sex clearly falls outside the pale of acceptable behavior at this time, but not if the couple already has three offspring of the same sex.

The effect of child support enforcement on child support payments

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of state child support enforcement legislation on child support received from absent fathers by ever-married women due support in 1978 or 1981. The analysis is based upon data from the 1979 and 1982 March/April Match files of the Current Population Survey, two nationally-representative surveys of the eligible child support population, combined with a data set assembled by the authors on child support enforcement techniques available in each state. Based upon probit estimates and OLS estimates corrected for sample selection bias, we find that expedited processes and liens (against real and personal property), as well as wage withholding laws in effect for at least three years, increased the amount of child support received in 1981. In general, enforcement is more effective at increasing the amount received than the probability of receiving something, and is more effective for Blacks than for nonBlacks.

The one child certificate in Hebei province, China: Acceptance and consequence, 1979–1988

Abstract: As part of its One Child Policy, China developed the one child certificate which offered numerous benefits to couples who had one child and promised to have no more. Using data from the Two-per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this study describes the level of certificate acceptance in Hebei province from 1979 to 1988 and analyzes socioeconomic, cultural and early family formation factors affecting certificate acceptance as well as the role of certificate acceptance on transition to second parity. During the past decade, the level of initial certificate acceptance was 22.6 percent. This estimate is much lower than earlier published rates because it utilizes the concept of women at risk. Public resistance to the One Child Policy is evident in declining acceptance from 26.0 percent during the first five years of the policy to 11.3 percent during the 1984–1988 period. Women's response to the certificate has been influenced by the woman's status as reflected in education and occupation as well as cultural traditions, particularly son preference. The one child certificate, however, independently depresses subsequent fertility. This research indicates that efforts to understand fertility decline in China must simultaneously acknowledge the role of government family planning programs as well as socioeconomic and cultural factors.

The impact of employer-sponsored child care on female labor supply behavior: Evidence from the nursing profession

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of employer-sponsored child care on two dimensions of the labor supply behavior of women with young children: annual hours worked and attachment to the employer. Data from the 1988 Biennial Survey of Illinois Registered Nurses are used in the empirical analysis. The provision of employer-sponsored child care is found to have significant positive effects on both aspects of labor supply.

More Evidence on Smoke Detector Effectiveness and the Value of Saving A Life

Abstract: Economic models of the fire fatality rate give estimates of smoke detector effectiveness. These estimates are much smaller than those generally accepted. Reasonable interpretation of these estimates, combined with the cost of a smoke detector and the risk of a fire death, places the smoke detector-based value of life saving in a range of $ 1.41 to $ 2.487 million 1986 dollars. The more generally accepted results of other studies of the value of life saving fall in a range of $ 1.6 to $ 8.5 million 1986 dollars. Smoke detector market data, along with effectiveness estimates from economic models, may provide a unique opportunity to estimate the value of life saving.

Individual and aggregate influences on the age at first birth.

Abstract: This study examines the role of both individual adolescent expectations of market and nonmarket income and aggregate influences on first birth timing for Blacks and Whites and for three birth cohorts of American women. Using two panels of the National Longitudinal surveys, results suggest that between-race differences in age at first birth result from differences in individual expectations about market and nonmarket income. Cohort differences in age at first birth result from relationship differences in both individual and aggregate influences, with aggregate influences differentially altering the role of individual expectations on first birth timing. These results suggest that employment policies that reduce poverty and increase wages would effectively delay childbearing. For Blacks, since early childbearing results from lower expectations about future economic success, similar fertility timing patterns between the races would result if Blacks had White employment and wage levels. Over time, these employment and wage policies will not only alter individual expectations about economic success but also will alter the impact of expectations on fertility timing.

Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models

Abstract: Population projection models that are conceptually simple enough to be called transpar- ent may be used to check the validity of projections generated by "black box" models whose behavior may be somewhat shrouded in mystery. This paper adopts a multiregional demographic model to illustrate how such a validation procedure might be carried out on state population projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1988. In October of 1988, the U.S. Bureau of the Census issued a new set of state population projections disaggregated by age, sex, and race (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988). Although the projections were produced by the well- known cohort-component method, they represent a significant advance in governmentally-produced projection methodology in that they reflect, for the first time, a multiregional modeling perspective (Rogers, 1975). Internal mi- gration is represented in terms of state-to-state rates and not with net migra- tion rates, as was the case with the projections issued five years earlier (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1983). The 1988 projections also were the Census Bureau's first state projections to be produced by single years of age for individual calendar years and to incorporate a procedure that permits updating for recent migration trends. Despite these enhancements, the projections were not received with enthu- siastic approval by some state agencies charged preparing similar population projections. For example, the Wisconsin State Data Center challenged the Bureau's prognosis for the state - a two percent decline between 1995 and 2010. Demographer Balkrishna Kale of the Wisconsin Center called the projections too pessimistic:

The use of multiple regression analysis in employment discrimination cases

Abstract: This paper explores the use of multiple regression in employment discrimination cases brought under the Equal Pay Act of 1963 or Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Through examining the outcomes of the cases and judicial commentary about regression analyses as evidence, the paper concludes that plaintiffs are most likely to prevail in cases where both the plaintiffs and defendants utilize regression. Plaintiffs who do not present regression analyses as evidence are at a distinct disadvantage when defendants do so. However, defendants are not similarly disadvantaged when responding to a plaintiffs regression analysis without their own statistical showing. Finally, plaintiffs who support their regression analyses with witness testimony of discriminatory employer acts appear to be more likely to prevail than plaintiffs who do not present such witnesses.

Wage subsidies as an anti-discrimination policy

Abstract: Using the statistical theory of discrimination, we argue that initial wage offers may be lower for minority workers, but that wage differences for a given level of productivity should diminish with the worker's job tenure. If a wage subsidization policy is designed so that initial wage offers are equal for majority and minority workers and is maintained for a time period sufficient to demonstrate true productivity, then wage differences for a given level of productivity should disappear. We also provide an empirical test of the effectiveness of such a policy by using a sample of participants in a government job program that enforced equal wage schedules for White and Black workers. Our results show that measured discrimination declined among program participants, supporting the hypothesis that wage subsidies would be an effective anti-discrimination policy.

Some spatial aspects of poverty in the USA

Abstract: The social problem of poverty in the USA. has important spatial dimensions. The great migration of poor persons from the agricultural South to the industrial North shaped the nation's process of urbanization in the period after World War II. Subsequent suburbanization in the nation's cities was profoundly influenced by this movement and, in turn, had important implications for the urban poor. Also, the changing structure of employment opportunities within urban areas has had direct effects on the nature of the poverty problem in terms of spatial segregation and the persistence of poverty in urban areas. This paper offers a survey of the spatial aspects of poverty in the USA. and relates the problem of poverty to the forces of change that have contributed to the spatial transformation of the US economy.

The impact of gender and working life cycle position on the likelihood and accumulation of formal on-the-job training

Abstract: The literature concerning the influence of race and gender on layoff likelihood suggests that differences persist between whites and blacks as well as males and females even after controlling for factors expected to influence personal productivity. However, it appears that formal on-the-job training has often not been adequately accounted for. This paper uses direct objective measures of formal on-the-job training to examine the influence of gender and working lifecycle stage on the likelihood of participating in formal on-the-job training programs and on the duration of these on-the-job training experiences for program participants.

Poverty and choice of marital status: A self-selection model

Abstract: Over the last few decades in the United States, the poverty rate for female-headed families has been about five times the poverty rate for other family types. This paper addresses the question of why, in general, female-headed families are so much poorer than other families. Recognizing that individuals choose their own marital status, a self-selection model is used to identify the factors which determine the poverty rates for married-couple families, families headed by females with no husband present, and families headed by males with no wife present. The following control variables are found to be important determinants of poverty for all three family types: education of family members; age, race, disability, and unemployment of the family head; geographical location, size and composition of the family. Both married-couple families and male-headed families are found to be less poor than female-headed families mainly because the marginal effects of the control variables, and to a lesser extent the mean levels of the control variables, favor the former two types of families over female-headed families.

Fertility change in rural China 1949-1982.

Abstract: In the present study, the technique of life table analysis is used to examine fertility change by birth order in rural China, particularly in the rural portion of Anhui province. The study mainly focuses on the relationship between fertility change by birth order and planned socioeconomic changes. Change in fertility by birth order in the last few decades in rural China and Anhui is used as an indicator of the effects of planned socioeconomic changes on the process of family building. Some light is shed on the extent to which fertility changes affected women at different stages of their reproductive career. The data are from the 1/1000 Fertility Survey of China, conducted by the Family Planning Commission in 1982.

Baby boomlet for older mothers? Data for birth cohorts of American white women born 1882-1953.

Abstract: In recent years, a number of celebrities have begun childbearing after age 35. The phenomena of older first-time mothers has received a great deal of attention in the popular press. Are these celebrities indicative of a national trend? Does the increase in fertility portend a reversal of the declines in fertility which have been occurring since the baby boom? The present paper uses central and cumulative birth rates for cohorts of American white women born between 1882 and 1953 to investigate childbearing between ages 35 and 50. While there has been a noticeable upsurge in first birth rates for cohorts in their mid to late 30s in recent years, overall central birth rates for women in their 30s are among the lowest on record, with cumulative birth rates at record low levels. A major reason for this is that these women are having relatively few third and higher order births. These cohorts will need to have a relatively high proportion of births in their older years of childbearing in order to reach replacement level. However, attaining replacement level is unlikely because such a high proportion of women have remained childless at ages 35–40 and a relatively low proportion are having three or more children.