Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2002"

TL;DR: In this article, a survey of 440 manufacturing firms of diverse industries in a region in the southwest of Montreal found that 68.5% of the firms have developed product or process innovations during the 3 years preceding the survey.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a conceptual and theoretical framework to understand technical change in late industrializing economies and develop a kind of empirical test of the usefulness of that new framework by means of a comparative study of the Brazilian and South Korean cases.

TL;DR: A hybrid forecasting model, which combines the seasonal time series ARIMA (SARIMA) and the neural network back propagation (BP) models, known as SARIMABP, was used to forecast two seasonal timeseries data of total production value for Taiwan machinery industry and the soft drink time series.

TL;DR: In this article, a discussion of the concept of innovation, changes in three major developments in the context of innovation processes are analysed: structural changes in our economy, the broadening of decision-making processes and the emergence of the network society, and changes in the knowledge infrastructure.

TL;DR: Empirical technology forecasting is not well utilized in technology management and efforts to address these three factors via partially automated processes to generate helpful knowledge from text quickly and graphically are reported on.

TL;DR: This paper investigates how, in six case studies, core capabilities, complementary assets, organizational learning, path dependencies, and the selection environment varied among the innovation patterns.

TL;DR: A methodology is suggested in this paper to match the technique to a technology by mapping both technology and technique characteristics on a common scale to help in selection of complementary and appropriate techniques for a technology.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a model that links the e-service company's knowledge-based competencies with their competitive capabilities, and suggest that services that strategically build a portfolio of knowledge-base competencies have more operations-based options than their counterparts who are less apt to invest.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a different approach, which consists of expressing the growth model through its differential equation and searching for a functional specification for the variable representing growth rate, which can be expressed as follows:

TL;DR: Thirteen data sets of such milestones, obtained from a variety of scientific sources, provide data on the most important complexity jumps between the big bang and today, finding that complexity's rate of growth has built up to its present high level via seven evolutionary subprocesses, themselves amenable to logistic description.

TL;DR: Using classic models of logistic growth, substitution, and learning, the global dynamics of eight generations of DRAMs are examined and the market characteristics of the next DRAM generations are forecast.

TL;DR: In the context of the second International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), the authors of as discussed by the authors have made a set of extended contributions to the Lisbon conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of both developed and developing countries.

TL;DR: In this paper, a review of past forecasts of technical innovations include lessons that can be used in making forecasts today, such as sustained and continuing trends in underlying technologies, where increasing capabilities enable more complex applications and declining costs drive a positive innovation loop, lowering the cost of innovation and enabling wider learning and contributions from more people.

TL;DR: In this paper, a 10-fold expansion of nuclear energy could avoid about 15% of cumulative carbon emissions over the period 2000-2075, which is a significant contribution to mitigating carbon emissions.

TL;DR: In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed between the SOA and a no longer SOA has been refined to include a weighted average, and a means of utilizing proxy Decision Making Unit (DMUs), was implemented to maintain the dataset over time.

TL;DR: In this article, a technology-related explanation for the overeducated and underutilized workers in several European countries is proposed. But, the authors do not consider the role of technology in the creation of these workers.

TL;DR: A retest of the Fisher-Pry test of the innovation-diffusion thesis was carried out in this paper, showing that the 50% saturation point (flex-point) has been attained and that the 90% saturation level would not be reached until early in the 22nd century.

TL;DR: The 4th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI) as mentioned in this paper was held in Curitiba, Parana, Brazil, in August of 2000 under the broad designation of learning and knowledge networks.

TL;DR: In this paper, a cybernetic framework is proposed that may help in understanding the specifics of the timely unfolding of recurrent social phenomena, as well as provide a basis for their application as useful forecasting tools for futures studies.

TL;DR: This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development and key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild".

TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a detailed study on the future development of Taiwan's machinery industry along with valuable proposals to the government policy and the investment strategy to the private sectors.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the ultimate goal of any action in the field of transfer of technology (TT) should not be only just to apply particular technological solutions to the GHG problem but to enhance the capabilities of developing countries to assess the need, select, import, assimilate, adapt, and develop the appropriate technologies.

TL;DR: In this paper, a new, simple and flexible model has been proposed based on potential penetration, where potential penetration is penetration on the assumption that no other new technology will enter the market.

TL;DR: In this paper, the FANTASIE project, executed for the European Commission, has done a search for promising technological innovations in transport and has assessed their possible impacts on the goals of the Common Transport Policy.

TL;DR: This analysis highlights the increased flexibility and scalability of DWDM networks, which lowers the deployment costs of such networks in light of growing and uncertain demand and considers some of the impediments to the growth of wavelength markets.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss scenario-making from a methodological point of view and argue that both unconventional and event-based scenarios have been neglected as tools for coping with contingency.

TL;DR: In this paper, a diagnostic test for residual autocorrelation based on the Lagrange multiplier principle is proposed for the logistic curve and the Gompertz curve, which is shown to be useful for selecting between these two models.

TL;DR: In this paper, the End-Use Forecasting Group at the University of California, Berkeley National Laboratory (UC Berkeley) developed an end-to-end end-use forecasting system.

TL;DR: In this paper, a general framework has been proposed for analyzing the impact of various managerial strategies on the overall outcomes of a firm's research and development (R&D) efforts, suggesting that three elements are critical: posture and direction, systems, and adjustment processes.