Journal ArticleDOI
A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values
TLDR
The fixed variable elicitation method was slightly faster and preferred by most participants and showed slight but consistent superiority for the fixed variable method along several dimensions such as monotonicity, accuracy, and precision of the estimated fractiles.Abstract:
We present the results of an experiment comparing two popular methods for encoding probability distributions of continuous variables in decision analysis: eliciting values of a variable, X, through comparisons with a fixed probability wheel and eliciting the percentiles of the cumulative distribution, F(X), through comparisons with fixed values of the variable. We show slight but consistent superiority for the fixed variable method along several dimensions such as monotonicity, accuracy, and precision of the estimated fractiles. The fixed variable elicitation method was also slightly faster and preferred by most participants. We discuss the reasons for its superiority and conclude with several recommendations for the practice of probability assessment.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.
TL;DR: The cognitive and motivational biases that are relevant for decision and risk analysis because they can distort analysis inputs and are difficult to correct are identified and guidance about the existing debiasing techniques to overcome these biases is provided.
Book ChapterDOI
Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling
TL;DR: A simple and concise description of an alternative Bayesian approach to structural equation models with latent variables is developed, and an industrialization and democratization case study from the literature is illustrated.
Journal ArticleDOI
Methodology for Conducting Discrete-Event Simulation Studies in Construction Engineering and Management
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest the methodology to follow when conducting discrete-event simulation (DES) studies in construction engineering and management research, and the importance of properly understanding the probabilistic concepts upon which DES relies and coupling this understanding with engineering judgment as a key for successful use of DES in construction research.
Journal ArticleDOI
Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles
TL;DR: In this article, two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages, averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles, are compared and it is shown that the average quantile forecast is always sharper: it has lower variance than the average probability forecast.
References
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Book
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
Book
Decision analysis and behavioral research
D. Von Winterfeldt,Ward Edwards +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an integrative presentation of the principles of decision analysis in a behavioral context, including sensitivity analysis, value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk, and attempt to make intuitive sense out of what have been treated in the literature as endemic biases and other errors of human judgement.
Journal ArticleDOI
Applied Statistical Decision Theory
Book ChapterDOI
Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the literature concerning calibration of probabilistic assessments is presented, where the authors identify two kinds of "goodness" in probability assessments: normative goodness, which reflects the degree to which assessments express the assessor's true beliefs and conform to the axioms of probability theory, and substantive goodness, reflecting the amount of knowledge of the topic area contained in the assessments.
Book
Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow +7 more
TL;DR: Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.