Journal ArticleDOI
Acceptance Criteria for Using Individual‐Based Models to Make Management Decisions
TLDR
A set of guidelines is suggested here for evaluating individual-based models, suggesting that results from such an evaluation should be prepared using the model, rather than presenting single predictions or conclusions.Abstract:
Individual-based population models are beginning to have substantial influence in conservation biology. One of the dangers of such models is that their reliability may be poorly understood, and generally over-estimated. To help avoid this problem a set of guidelines is suggested here for evaluating individual-based models. Major components of the evaluation include a description of the model and estimates of the reliability of its predictions. The description should include detailed explanations of the model's purpose(s), its structure, and the assumptions it makes. Analyses of reliability at four levels may be useful: structural assumptions, parameter values, secondary predictions of the model, and primary predictions of the model. The guidelines also recommend that "best-" and "worst-case" scenarios, intended to span the range of plausible outcomes, be prepared using the model, rather than presenting single predictions or conclusions. I argue that results from such an evaluation should be prepared and p...read more
Citations
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Book
Individual-based modeling and ecology
Volker Grimm,Steven F. Railsback +1 more
TL;DR: An excellent introduction and overview of this field, written by Volker Grimm and Steven F. Railsback, should be read by everyone interested in individual-based modeling and especially by anyone contemplating developing, or being involved with a group developing, an individualbased model.
Journal ArticleDOI
Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation
TL;DR: The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models, and disagreements over the mean can only be resolved by establishing a convention.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the Use of Demographic Models of Population Viability in Endangered Species Management
TL;DR: PVA should evaluate relative rather than absolute rates of extinction, emphasize short-time periods for making projections, and mix genetic and demographic currencies sparingly and link between recovery options and PVA models should be established.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Ecology and Evolution of Seed Dispersal: A Theoretical Perspective
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the development of seed dispersal models can be found, and some suggestions for furthest reaching the future are provided, as well as suggestions for how to incorporate these models into models of the implications of dispersal.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future
TL;DR: A standard format for documenting models and their analyses is proposed: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation, which will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.
References
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BookDOI
Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatially explicit population models: current forms and future uses
John B. Dunning,David J. Stewart,Brent J. Danielson,Barry R. Noon,Terry L. Root,Roland H. Lamberson,Ernest E. Stevens +6 more
TL;DR: Spatially explicit population models are becoming increasingly useful tools for population ecologists, conservation biologists, and land managers as discussed by the authors, where the locations of habitat patches, individuals, and other items of interest are explicitly incorporated into the model and the effect of changing landscape features on population dynamics can be studied.