Journal ArticleDOI
Craps and Magic
TLDR
In this article, a cab driver-crapshooter game is studied, and it is shown that the strategies these players usse to maximize their own control over the dice when they are shooting and to minimize the control of other shooters are logically consistent within their belief system.Abstract:
Problem 1.-How can these players operate simultaneously in both the dimensions of rationality and irrationality, of probability and magic? These cab driver-crapshooters usually bet according to known probability ("rational" aspect of the game), yet they have many magical practices in their betting and shooting that make little sense to an outside observer (the "irrational" aspects of the game). Once one understands the players' basic belief system, their system of cause and effect, one then sees that their magical practices are also "rational," that is, the strategies these players usse to maximize their own control over the dice when they are shooting and to minimize the control of other shooters are logically consistent within their belief system. Without understanding their belief system, we do not understand their behavior. Problem 2.- What is the origin of their magical behavior and belief system? An attempt is made to reconcile theories of Malinowski and Kroeber concerning the origin of magic whith ...read more
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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
TL;DR: In this article, a review is presented of the book "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman".
Journal ArticleDOI
The illusion of control.
TL;DR: For instance, this article argued that people treat chance events as controllable and treat success in skill tasks as a fortuitous happening, whereas success in luck or chance activities is apparently uncontrollable.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The conjunction rule as mentioned in this paper states that the probability of a conjunction cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P (A) and P (B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of their constituents.
Journal ArticleDOI
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap, including performance errors, computational limitations, the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and a different construal of the task by the subject.
Journal ArticleDOI
Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives
Daniel Kahneman,Dale T. Miller +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a theory of norms and normality is presented and applied to some phenomena of emotional responses, social judgment, and conversations about causes, such as emotional response to events that have abnormal causes, the generation of predictions and inferences from observations of behavior and the role of norms in causal questions and answers.