Journal ArticleDOI
Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
TLDR
In this paper, the authors examine the role of dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts in predicting the cross-section of future stock returns and find that stocks with higher dispersion have significantly lower future returns than similarly similar stocks.Abstract:
We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting dispersion in analysts’ forecasts as a proxy for differences in opinion about a stock, we show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that prices will ref lect the optimistic view whenever investors with the lowest valuations do not trade. By contrast, our evidence is inconsistent with a view that dispersion in analysts’ forecasts proxies for risk. IN THIS PAPER WE ANALYZE THE ROLE of dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts in predicting the cross section of future stock returns. We find that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts earn significantly lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. In particular, a portfolio of stocks in the highest quintile of dispersion underperforms a portfolio of stocks in the lowest quintile of dispersion by 9.48 percent per year. This effect is strongest in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Our results are robust to various risk-adjustment techniques, and are inconsistent with an interpretation of dispersion in analysts’ forecasts as a proxy for risk. We postulate that dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts can be viewed as a proxy for differences of opinion among investors. Differences of opinion are typically modeled via dogmatic beliefs or asymmetric information sets, and have been included in numerous models that relax the standardread more
Citations
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Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects $
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that expected market illiquidity positively affects ex ante stock excess return, suggesting that expected stock ex ante excess return partly represents an illiquid price premium, which complements the cross-sectional positive return-illiquidity relationship.
Journal ArticleDOI
The economic implications of corporate financial reporting
TL;DR: This paper found that the majority of managers would avoid initiating a positive NPV project if it meant falling short of the current quarter's consensus earnings, and more than three-fourths of the surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings.
Posted Content
The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the pricing of aggregate volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns and find that stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the pricing of aggregate volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns and found that stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the role of information uncertainty in short-term CAPM anomalies and cross-sectional variations in stock returns, and show that greater information uncertainty produces relatively higher expected returns following good news and relatively lower expected return following bad news.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds
Eugene F. Fama,Kenneth R. French +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify five common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds, including three stock-market factors: an overall market factor and factors related to firm size and book-to-market equity.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns
Eugene F. Fama,Kenneth R. French +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, Bhandari et al. found that the relationship between market/3 and average return is flat, even when 3 is the only explanatory variable, and when the tests allow for variation in 3 that is unrelated to size.
Journal ArticleDOI
Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests
Eugene F. Fama,James D. MacBeth +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks was tested using a two-parameter portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two parameter portfolio model.
Journal ArticleDOI
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
TL;DR: Using a sample free of survivor bias, this paper showed that common factors in stock returns and investment expenses almost completely explain persistence in equity mutual fund's mean and risk-adjusted returns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that strategies that buy stocks that have performed well in the past and sell stocks that had performed poorly in past years generate significant positive returns over 3- to 12-month holding periods.