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Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes
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In this article, the European Commission's Autumn forecasts are used to estimate reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes, and deviations from plans during budget implementation.Abstract:
Drawing on the European Commission’s Autumn forecasts, I estimate fiscal reaction functions with four different information sets, ranging from budget plans to final outcomes. I also analyse deviations from plans during budget implementation. In a panel of 15 EU countries from 1987 to 2006, moving from plans to final data generally weakens the counter-cyclicality of budget balances and expenditures (though not of revenues), and reinforces electoral effects. Deviations from plans play a negligible role in the former finding, as they are often acyclical;but have a major role in the latter, as they display a clear opportunistic pattern.read more
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Real‐Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature
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Real‐time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature
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The Cyclical Response of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area – Why Do Results of Empirical Research Differ so Strongly?
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From budgetary forecasts to ex post fiscal data: exploring the evolution of fiscal forecast errors in the European Union
TL;DR: In this article, the ex post error in the budget balance, defined as the final budget figure minus the planned figure, is divided into implementation and revision errors, and investigates the determinants of these errors.
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