Journal ArticleDOI
Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?
Richard Meese,Kenneth Rogoff +1 more
TLDR
The authors compared the performance of various structural and time series exchange rate models, and found that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar /yen and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates.About:
This article is published in Journal of International Economics.The article was published on 1983-02-01. It has received 3621 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Exchange rate & Liberian dollar.read more
Citations
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Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model
TL;DR: Experimental results with real data sets indicate that the combined model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by either of the models used separately.
Posted Content
The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle
TL;DR: A number of recent studies have weighed in with fairly persuasive evidence that real exchange rates (nominal exchange rates adjusted for differences in national price levels) tend toward purchasing power parity in the very long run as discussed by the authors.
Book
Monetary Theory and Policy
TL;DR: In this article, empirical evidence on money and output is presented, including the Tobin effect and the MIU approximation problems, and a general equilibrium framework for monetary analysis is presented.
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Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks
TL;DR: Eichengreen et al. as discussed by the authors evaluated the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty OECD countries, and concluded that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks, and no easy solutions for policy-makers.
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The Economics of Exchange Rates
TL;DR: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination as mentioned in this paper. But, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a few challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises.
References
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A new look at the statistical model identification
TL;DR: In this article, a new estimate minimum information theoretical criterion estimate (MAICE) is introduced for the purpose of statistical identification, which is free from the ambiguities inherent in the application of conventional hypothesis testing procedure.
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Estimating the Dimension of a Model
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
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Macroeconomics and reality
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the style in which their builders construct claims for a connection between these models and reality is inappropriate, to the point at which claims for identification in these models cannot be taken seriously.
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Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a theory of exchange rate movements under perfect capital mobility, a slow adjustment of goods markets relative to asset markets, and consistent expectations, and showed that along that path a monetary expansion causes the exchange rate to depreciate.
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Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the hypothesis that the expected rate of return to speculation in the forward foreign exchange market is zero; that is, the logarithm of the forward exchange rate is the market's conditional expectation of the future spot rate, and they were able to reject the simple market efficiency hypothesis for exchange rates from the 1970s and the 1920s.