Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs
Michael W. Klein,Nancy P. Marion +1 more
TLDR
In this paper, an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange-rate pegs in 16 Latin American countries and Jamaica was carried out, identifying factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis and finding that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg.About:
This article is published in Journal of Development Economics.The article was published on 1997-12-01 and is currently open access. It has received 292 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Devaluation & Exchange rate.read more
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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early warning system, which involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis.
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Fiscal Policy in Latin America
Michael Gavin,Roberto Perotti +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a new, comprehensive database on fiscal outcomes in 13 major Latin American economies which covers central government, local government, and non-financial public enterprises at a reasonably detailed level of aggregation.
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The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy
TL;DR: In this article, the authors classify countries as pegged or non-pegged and examine whether a pegged country must follow the interest rate changes in the base country more than nonpegs.
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Emerging markets finance
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the financial effects of market integration as well as the impact on the real economy in emerging markets, including contagion, corporate finance, market microstructure and stock selection.
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Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises; Empirical Regularities
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance in low and middle-income countries, and found that an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter.
References
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A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
TL;DR: A theory of optimum currency areas is proposed in this paper, where the authors argue that periodic balance-of-payments crises will remain an integral feature of the international economic system as long as fixed exchange rates and rigid wage and price levels prevent the terms of trade from fulfilling a natural role in the adjustment process.
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Collapsing exchange-rate regimes: Some linear examples
Robert P. Flood,Peter M. Garber +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange-rate regime and derive a stochastic model for the same problem.
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Econometric duration analysis
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Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers
Allan Drazen,Paul R. Masson +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high, and the main conclusion is that observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods.