Journal ArticleDOI
Feedback and response mode in performing a Bayesian decision task.
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This article is published in Journal of Applied Psychology.The article was published on 1969-10-01. It has received 39 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Bayesian statistics & Bayesian probability.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment.
Paul Slovic,Sarah Lichtenstein +1 more
TL;DR: This work examines the models that have been developed for describing and prescribing the use of information in decision making, the major experimental paradigms, and the major empirical results and conclusions of these two approaches.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions
TL;DR: It is argued that since man is a selective, sequential information processing system with limited capacity, he is ill-suited for assessing probability distributions, and the importance of task characteristics on judgmental performance is also emphasized.
ReportDOI
Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases
TL;DR: This article reviewed theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more systematic study of belief biases and their integration into economics, and drew general lessons for when people update too much or too little, reflecting on modeling challenges, and highlighting some possible directions for future work.
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1: Studies of Problem Solving, Judgment, and Decision Making: Implications for Educational Research
Lee S. Shulman,Arthur S. Elstein +1 more
TL;DR: Puzzle forms for the study of individual judgment and problem-solving have been proposed for the educational research in this area as discussed by the authors, with a focus on how teachers think about their pupils and instructional problems, and how teachers act or perform in the classroom.
Journal ArticleDOI
Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation
TL;DR: This paper examined how decision makers evaluate their feelings of certainty toward specified and unspecified hypotheses and found that subjects generally were overconfident for specified hypotheses and conservative for unspecified hypotheses, while expressing more confidence with specified hypotheses when evaluating them individually than as an aggregate.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Man as an intuitive statistician.
TL;DR: Results indicate that probability theory and statistics can be used as the basis for psychological models that integrate and account for human performance in a wide range of inferential tasks.
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Conservatism in a simple probability inference task.
TL;DR: Estimates were most nearly Bayesian under the (formally inappropriate) linear payoff, but considerable overestimation resulted; the log payoff condition yielded less conservatism than the quadratic payoff and when Ss estimated odds on a logarithmic scale.
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Sensitivity of subjective probability revision.
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Subjective probability revisions under several cost-payoff arrangements
TL;DR: In this article, human performance at a complex probabilistic inference task was evaluated in a simulated military threat-diagnosis context, where subjects' estimates of posterior probabilities were compared with theoretically optimal revisions calculated from a modification of Bayes' theorem.