Journal ArticleDOI
Pitfalls in Military Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Incident Reporting in a Low Intensity Conflict
TLDR
The authors discusses factors that affect the utility of quantitative methods in military intelligence analysis when used in a low-intensity conflict, and applies this critique to the case of incident reporting in Afghanistan.Abstract:
Incidents are the key data for several of the statistical reports and analyses created within the military intelligence community. This paper discusses factors that affect the utility of quantitative methods in military intelligence analysis when used in a low intensity conflict. The first half of the paper presents the general critique of the use of quantitative methods. The second half applies this critique to the case of incident reporting in Afghanistan.read more
Citations
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Dissertation
The Utility of Coercion Theory in the Afghan Conflict
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the utility of coercion theory in complex contemporary conflicts through a study of the Afghan conflict as it unfolded in the provinces of Faryab and Kunduz from 2005 to 2012.
Journal ArticleDOI
An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss limitations with the risk-based approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, uncertainties, the nature of the threats, and the complexity of the risks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Getting beyond analysis by anecdote: improving intelligence analysis through the use of case studies*
TL;DR: The authors argue that a greater understanding of how case studies are used by political scientists and other scholars can help improve the quality of intelligence analysis and help the intelligence community assist policymakers as they attempt to understand the threats and challenges of today's world.
Journal ArticleDOI
A damage assessment framework for insider threats to national security information: Edward Snowden and the Cambridge Five in comparative historical perspective
David V. Gioe,Joseph M. Hatfield +1 more
TL;DR: A new generation of insider threat has emerged within the US intelligence community as mentioned in this paper, and they are not the first transparency-driven digital challenge to the United States government, but they are the first to emerge.
Military intelligence analysis : institutional influence
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that there will always be a need for decision support to military and civilian leaders regarding adversaries or potential adversarial adversaries regarding adversaries, and that intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles.
References
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
TL;DR: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable as mentioned in this paper is a book about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters, that are impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
Journal ArticleDOI
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TL;DR: In this paper, the concept of power is defined in terms of a relation between people, and is expressed in simple symbolic notation, and a statement of power comparability is developed, or the relative degree of power held by two or more persons.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events
TL;DR: In the spirit of Lewis Richardson's original study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, the authors studied the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968 and showed that these events ar...
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Common ecology quantifies human insurgency
TL;DR: This work proposes a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces commonalities across wars, explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement, and establishes a quantitative connection between human insurgency, global terrorism and ecology.
Journal ArticleDOI
Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude
TL;DR: A record of wars during the interval A.D. 1820 to 1945 has been collected from the whole world, and has been classified according to the number of war-dead as discussed by the authors.
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