Journal ArticleDOI
Private Firm Default Probabilities Via Statistical Learning Theory and Utility Maximization
TLDR
In this paper, the authors estimate real-world private firm default probabilities over a fixed time horizon, conditioned on a vector of explanatory variables, which include financial ratios, economic indicators, and market prices.Abstract:
We estimate real-world private firm default probabilities over a fixed time horizon,conditioned on a vector of explanatory variables, which include financial ratios, economic indicators, and market prices. To estimate our model, we apply a recently developed method from statistical learning theory. This method leads to a model that is particularly appropriate for financial market participants who would use the model to make financial decisions. We compare our model with various benchmark models, with respect to a number of performance measures. In all of these tests, our model outperformed the benchmark models. We also discuss possible reasons for this outperformance. A revised version of this paper appeared in the Journal of Credit Risk, Volume 2/Number 1, Spring 2006.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the US Market
Edward I. Altman,Gabriele Sabato +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and analyzed its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model, considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market
Edward I. Altman,Gabriele Sabato +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and analyzed its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model, considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord.
Posted Content
MODELING CREDIT RISK FOR SMEs: EVIDENCE FROM THE US MARKET
Edward I. Altman,Gabriele Sabato +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and analyzed its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model, considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord.
Posted Content
Incorporating fat tails in nancial models using entropic divergence measures
Santanu S. Dey,Sandeep Juneja +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that under $I-divergence, the optimal solution may not exist when the underlying assets have fat tailed distributions, ubiquitous in financial practice and this drawback may be corrected if `polynomial-d divergence' is used.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bankruptcy Prediction Revisited: Non-Traditional Ratios and Lasso Selection
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the marginal usefulness of some non-traditional ratios and indicators and found that the performance of traditional ratios can be considerably improved by their squared terms and technical ratios built from itemized accounts.
References
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Book
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider statistical mechanics as a form of statistical inference rather than as a physical theory, and show that the usual computational rules, starting with the determination of the partition function, are an immediate consequence of the maximum-entropy principle.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Elements of Statistical Learning
TL;DR: Chapter 11 includes more case studies in other areas, ranging from manufacturing to marketing research, and a detailed comparison with other diagnostic tools, such as logistic regression and tree-based methods.
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