Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications
Anita Grezio,Andrey Babeyko,Maria Ana Baptista,Jörn Behrens,Antonio Costa,Gareth E. Davies,Eric L. Geist,Sylfest Glimsdal,F. I. Gonzalez,Jonathan Griffin,Carl B. Harbitz,Randall J. LeVeque,Stefano Lorito,Finn Løvholt,Rachid Omira,Christof Mueller,Raphaël Paris,Tom Parsons,Jascha Polet,William Power,Jacopo Selva,Mathilde B. Sørensen,Hong Kie Thio +22 more
TLDR
Probabilistic Tsunami Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities.Abstract:
Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically
challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated
because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity,
meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami
Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales
with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance
knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific
levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of
time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps
or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms
of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation
mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii)
statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric
uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the
rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications,
including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of
occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.read more
Citations
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The Mechanics Of Earthquakes And Faulting
TL;DR: In this paper, the stability of steady frictional sliding, inertia and the quasi-static limit of the quasistatic limit were investigated in the context of the ps 4.1 simulator.
Ensemble flood forecasting: A review
TL;DR: The scientific drivers of this shift towards ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and the literature evidence of the ‘added value’ of flood forecasts based on EPS are reviewed.
Estimation of the upper cutoff parameter for the tapered Pareto distribution
Yan Y. Kagan,Frederic Schoenber +1 more
TL;DR: Kagan and Schoenberg as mentioned in this paper investigated the problem of estimating the parameters used in models for the sizes of earthquakes and found that the maximum likelihood estimates of the cutoff parameter are substantially biased.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
Roberto Basili,Beatriz Brizuela,André Herrero,Sarfraz Iqbal,Stefano Lorito,Francesco Emanuele Maesano,Shane Murphy,Paolo Perfetti,Fabrizio Romano,Antonio Scala,Jacopo Selva,Matteo Taroni,Mara Monica Tiberti,Hong Kie Thio,Roberto Tonini,Manuela Volpe,Sylfest Glimsdal,Carl B. Harbitz,Finn Løvholt,Maria Ana Baptista,Fernando Carrilho,Luis Matias,Rachid Omira,Andrey Babeyko,Andreas Hoechner,Mucahit Gurbuz,Onur Pekcan,Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner,Miquel Canals,Galderic Lastras,Apostolos Agalos,Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos,Ioanna Triantafyllou,Sabah Benchekroun,Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi,Samir Ben Abdallah,Atef Bouallegue,Hassene Hamdi,Foued Oueslati,Alessandro Amato,Alberto Armigliato,Jörn Behrens,Gareth E. Davies,Daniela Di Bucci,Mauro Dolce,Eric L. Geist,José Manuel González Vida,Mauricio González,Jorge Macías Sánchez,Carlo Meletti,Ceren Ozer Sozdinler,Marco Pagani,Tom Parsons,Jascha Polet,William Power,Mathilde B. Sørensen,Andrey Zaytsev +56 more
TL;DR: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) as mentioned in this paper is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
Bruno Merz,Christian Kuhlicke,Michael Kunz,Massimiliano Pittore,Andrey Babeyko,David N. Bresch,David N. Bresch,Daniela I. V. Domeisen,Frauke Feser,Inga Monika Koszalka,Inga Monika Koszalka,Heidi Kreibich,Florian Pantillon,Florian Pantillon,Stefano Parolai,Joaquim G. Pinto,Heinz Jürgen Punge,Eleonora Rivalta,Kai Schröter,Karen Strehlow,Ralf Weisse,Andreas Wurpts +21 more
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards is presented, and the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase is discussed.
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