Open AccessDOI
Qualified Forecast of Ensemble Power Production by Spatially Dispersed Grid-Connected PV Systems
M. Schneider,Hans Georg Beyer,Detlev Heinemann,G. Karampela,Johannes Hurka,Elke Lorenz +5 more
- pp 3285-3291
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TLDR
In this paper, an approach to predict regional PV power output based on irradiance forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is presented.Abstract:
The contribution of power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on irradiance forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In the first part of the paper we introduce and evaluated different approaches to refine the irradiance forecasts. The second part of the paper addresses the power prediction for ensembles of PV systems. Here, in view of the data handling problems associated with the high number of individual systems contributing to the total PV generation within a region, the identification of representative subsets and representative system characterizations reflecting the power characteristics of the total ensemble is discussed.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Review of photovoltaic power forecasting
J. Antonanzas,Natalia Osorio,Rodrigo Escobar,Ruben Urraca,Francisco Javier Martinez-de-Pison,F. Antonanzas-Torres +5 more
TL;DR: This paper appears with the aim of compiling a large part of the knowledge about solar power forecasting, focusing on the latest advancements and future trends, and represents the most up-to-date compilation of solarPower forecasting studies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regional PV power prediction for improved grid integration
TL;DR: A modified up-scaling approach is introduced, modelling the spatial distribution of the nominal power with a resolution of 1° × 1°, which is based on forecasts of the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF).
Journal ArticleDOI
The Potential of Intermittent Renewables to Meet Electric Power Demand: Current Methods and Emerging Analytical Techniques
TL;DR: A framework for understanding the body of literature that has been devoted to the behavior and reliability of intermittent renewables is provided and the results of grid integration studies into decarbonization strategy analyses are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling and forecasting hourly global solar radiation using clustering and classification techniques
TL;DR: A new system to forecast and model hourly global solar radiation is proposed and a clustering algorithm to identify the type of days is proposed, using decision trees, artificial neural networks and support vector machines to estimate the parameters that characterize each type of day.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems
TL;DR: An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.
Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quality of performance assessment of PV plants based on irradiation maps
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study is performed for the region of the German federal state of Saxony using data for the year 2005 using data from meteorological stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD).