Journal ArticleDOI
Reaching a Consensus
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In this article, the authors consider a group of individuals who must act together as a team or committee, and assume that each individual in the group has his own subjective probability distribution for the unknown value of some parameter.Abstract:
Consider a group of individuals who must act together as a team or committee, and suppose that each individual in the group has his own subjective probability distribution for the unknown value of some parameter. A model is presented which describes how the group might reach agreement on a common subjective probability distribution for the parameter by pooling their individual opinions. The process leading to the consensus is explicitly described and the common distribution that is reached is explicitly determined. The model can also be applied to problems of reaching a consensus when the opinion of each member of the group is represented simply as a point estimate of the parameter rather than as a probability distribution.read more
Citations
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Beliefs, Politics, and Environmental Policy
Antony Millner,Hélène Ollivier +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors pointed out that regulatory responses to environmental issues often do not coincide with consensus expert recommen... and that experts and the general public often perceive environmental problems differently.
Journal ArticleDOI
A model of opinion and propagation structure polarization in social media
TL;DR: A model of opinion dynamics centered around the notion that opinion changes are invoked by news exposure, which successfully exhibited not only polarization of opinion, but also segregated propagation structure.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effects of leaders and social power on opinion formation in complex networks
TL;DR: The results show the appropriateness of scale-free topology in hierarchal organizations where leaders posit influence on peripheral agents, and show that the consensus time could be significantly decreased by introducing social power.
Journal ArticleDOI
Systemic risk in a network fragility model analyzed with probability density evolution of persistent random walks
Jan Lorenz,Stefano Battiston +1 more
TL;DR: The dynamics of the probability density function of the average fragility converges to a unique stationary distribution which can be computed numerically and can be used to estimate the systemic risk as afunction of the parameters of the model.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the control of opinion dynamics in social networks
TL;DR: A framework to analyze the controllability of opinion dynamics in social networks using DeGroot model (DeGroot, 1974) is presented and it is found that the opinion fluctuation is determined by the smallest negative eigenvalue of an influence matrix.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications
David A. Freedman,William Feller +1 more
Journal ArticleDOI
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications.
Book
A first course in stochastic processes
Samuel Karlin,Howard M. Taylor +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the Basic Limit Theorem of Markov Chains and its applications are discussed and examples of continuous time Markov chains are presented. But they do not cover the application of continuous-time Markov chain in matrix analysis.
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