The Role of Isolation and Vector Control in the Prevention of Dengue: A Case Study of 2014 Dengue Outbreak in Singapore

TLDR: In this article, the authors developed a $$SEIQR-SEI$$ type compartmental dengue model with the effect of isolation, which has one locally asymptotically stable disease free equilibrium (DFE) point when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.

Abstract: Isolation and quarantine play important role to control dengue outbreak but much attention has not yet been paid to develop dengue models with these control factors. In this paper, we have developed a $$SEIQR-SEI$$ type compartmental dengue model with the effect of isolation. The model has one locally asymptotically stable disease free equilibrium (DFE) point when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The model without dengue induced death has a globally asymptotically stable DFE point when the corresponding basic reproduction number is less than unity and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium point when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. The model exhibits backward bifurcation when the basic production number is equal to one and the first bifurcation coefficient is greater than zero. The key model parameters have been estimated by fitting the model to the dengue outbreak data reported from Singapore during the period 18th week to 53th week,2014. The findings suggest that the total outbreak size reduces by 32.87%, 27.02% and 35.96% respectively when the isolation rate increases from 0 to 0.5, the mosquito biting rate reduces from 1.235 to 1.00 and the vector control rate increases from 0.038 to 0.090. Using sensitivity analysis, we have determined the most sensitive model parameters.