Journal ArticleDOI
Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries
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TLDR
In this paper, the authors explored the use of perturbation methods within the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-DE and found that perturbations can lead to potentially useful probabilistic precipitation forecasts and should be considered as part of a future EPS design.About:
This article is published in Atmospheric Research.The article was published on 2011-05-01. It has received 197 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Quantitative precipitation forecast & Ensemble forecasting.read more
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The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
Philippe Bougeault,Zoltan Toth,Craig H. Bishop,Barbara G. Brown,David Burridge,De Hui Chen,Beth Ebert,Manuel Fuentes,Thomas M. Hamill,Ken Mylne,Jean Nicolau,Tiziana Paccagnella,Young-Youn Park,David B. Parsons,Baudouin Raoult,Doug Schuster,Pedro Leite da Silva Dias,Richard Swinbank,Yoshiaki Takeuchi,Warren Tennant,Laurence J. Wilson,Steve Worley +21 more
TL;DR: The TIGGE project aims to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research and exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of operational methods of variational and ensemble‐variational data assimilation
TL;DR: Variational and ensemble methods have been developed separately by various research and development groups and each brings its own benefits to data assimilation as mentioned in this paper, and many of these methods can be combined to give the emerging ensemble-variational (EnVar) and hybrid methods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Convection-permitting models: a step-change in rainfall forecasting
TL;DR: The development of CPMs has revealed that the lack of predictability of the smallest scales involving convection means that ensemble techniques are required to represent forecast uncertainty, resulting in a new capability to provide objective forecast probabilities of local precipitation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations
Andreas F. Prein,Andreas Gobiet,Martin Suklitsch,Heimo Truhetz,N. K. Awan,N. K. Awan,Klaus Keuler,Goran Georgievski +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the added value of a ensemble of convection permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) compared to coarser gridded simulations is investigated, and it is found that the most important added values of CPCSs are found in the diurnal cycle improved timing of summer convective precipitation, the intensity of most extreme precipitation, and the size and shape of precipitation objects.
Journal ArticleDOI
Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres
Nils Gustafsson,Tijana Janjic,Christoph Schraff,Daniel Leuenberger,Martin Weissmann,Hendrik Reich,Pierre Brousseau,Thibaut Montmerle,Eric Wattrelot,Antonín Bučánek,Máté Mile,Rafiq Hamdi,Magnus Lindskog,Jan Barkmeijer,Mats Dahlbom,Bruce Macpherson,S. P. Ballard,G. W. Inverarity,Jacob R. Carley,Curtis R. Alexander,David C. Dowell,Shun Liu,Yasutaka Ikuta,Tadashi Fujita +23 more
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the quality of forecasts based on initial data from convective-scale data assimilation is significantly better than thequality of forecasts from simple downscaling of larger-scale initial data.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
TL;DR: In this article, statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences are used to estimate the probability of a given event to be a hurricane or tropical cyclone, and the probability is determined by statistical methods.
Book
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
TL;DR: The second edition of "Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition" as mentioned in this paper presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
TL;DR: In this paper, a stochastic representation of random error associated with parametrized physical processes is described, and its impact in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF EPS) is discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Development of a european multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (demeter)
Tim Palmer,Andrea Alessandri,U. Andersen,Pierre Cantelaube,M. K. Davey,Pascale Delecluse,Michel Déqué,E. Diez,Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,H. Feddersen,Richard Graham,Silvio Gualdi,J. F. Gueremy,Renate Hagedorn,Moshe Hoshen,Noel Keenlyside,Mojib Latif,Alban Lazar,Eric Maisonnave,V. Marletto,Andrew P. Morse,B. Orfila,P. Rogel,Jean-Michel Terres,Madeleine C. Thomson +24 more
TL;DR: In this article, a multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction).
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