Using a Delphi process and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the complexity of projects
TLDR
A critical state of the art on multi-criteria methodologies is conducted and the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process is argued for, which permits to define a relative project complexity measure, which can notably assist decision-making.Abstract:
Research highlights? Describing, defining, and understanding better project complexity and its measures. ? Building up a generic project complexity framework. ? Performing a Delphi study about project complexity factors. ? Building up an AHP-based multi-criteria evaluation of project complexity. ? Exploring the sensitivity of such a measure. Project complexity is ever growing and needs to be understood, analysed and measured better to assist modern project management. The overall ambition of this paper is therefore to define a measure of project complexity in order to assist decision-making, notably when analysing several projects in a portfolio, or when studying different areas of a project. A synthesised literature review on existing complexity measures is firstly proposed in order to highlight their limitations. Then, we identify the multiple aspects of project complexity thanks to the construction and refinement of a project complexity framework thanks to an international Delphi study. We then propose a multi-criteria approach to project complexity evaluation, underlining the benefits of such an approach. In order to solve properly this multi-criteria problem, we first conduct a critical state of the art on multi-criteria methodologies. We then argue for the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. In the end, this tool permits to define a relative project complexity measure, which can notably assist decision-making. Complexity scales and subscales are defined in order to highlight the most complex alternatives and their principal sources of complexity within the set of criteria and sub-criteria which exist in the hierarchical structure. Finally, a case study within a start-up firm in the entertainment industry (musicals production) is performed. Conclusions, limitations and perspectives of research are given in the end.read more
Figures
Figure 12. Sensitivity analysis of any score S(i) regarding the variations of criteria weight Wj0 
Figure 7. AHP pairwise positive reciprocal comparison matrices 
Figure 17. Relative project complexity index in the case study 
Figure 1. A systems thinking-based approach to describe projects 
Figure 16. Relative weights of the seven projects 
Figure 15. Overall criteria and sub-criteria weights: project complexity factors comparison
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Criteria in AHP: a Systematic Review of Literature
TL;DR: The purpose of this study is to develop a systematic review of literature on the real cases that applied AHP to evaluate how the criteria are being defined and measured.
Journal ArticleDOI
Project complexity and risk management (ProCRiM) : towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a new process that aids capturing interdependency between project complexity, complexity induced risks and project objectives, and consider the decision problem of identifying critical risks and selecting optimal risk mitigation strategies at the commencement stage of a project.
Journal ArticleDOI
Measuring the complexity of mega construction projects in China—A fuzzy analytic network process analysis
TL;DR: In this article, a complexity measurement model consisting of 28 factors, which are grouped under six categories, namely, technological, organizational, goal, environmental, cultural and information complexities, is formulated through literature review using the content analysis technique.
Journal ArticleDOI
Clarifying the project complexity construct: Past, present and future
TL;DR: It was found that there are three primary and distinctive models of project complexity, the Project Management Institute view, the System of Systems view and the view developed from the analysis of citations of research papers, which is called the Complexity Theories view.
Journal ArticleDOI
Analysing the organizational factors of project complexity using structural equation modelling
TL;DR: This study aims to identify and model these factors to assist project managers in handling organizational factors of project complexity in a more regulated fashion and is developed using structural equation modelling technique.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
A mathematical theory of communication
TL;DR: This final installment of the paper considers the case where the signals or the messages or both are continuously variable, in contrast with the discrete nature assumed until now.
Book
The Sciences of the Artificial
TL;DR: A new edition of Simon's classic work on artificial intelligence as mentioned in this paper adds a chapter that sorts out the current themes and tools for analyzing complexity and complex systems, taking into account important advances in cognitive psychology and the science of design while confirming and extending Simon's basic thesis that a physical symbol system has the necessary and sufficient means for intelligent action.
Book
The Mathematical Theory of Communication
TL;DR: The Mathematical Theory of Communication (MTOC) as discussed by the authors was originally published as a paper on communication theory more than fifty years ago and has since gone through four hardcover and sixteen paperback printings.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures
TL;DR: A method of scaling ratios using the principal eigenvector of a positive pairwise comparison matrix is investigated, showing that λmax = n is a necessary and sufficient condition for consistency.