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Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis
TLDR
This paper found that exposure to the EU in terms of immigration and trade provides relatively little explanatory power for the referendum vote, instead, fundamental characteristics of the voting population were key drivers of the Vote Leave share, in particular their education profiles, their historical dependence on manufacturing employment as well as low income and high unemployment.Abstract:
On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. We analyze vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigration and trade provides relatively little explanatory power for the referendum vote. Instead, we find that fundamental characteristics of the voting population were key drivers of the Vote Leave share, in particular their education profiles, their historical dependence on manufacturing employment as well as low income and high unemployment. At the much finer level of wards within cities, we find that areas with deprivation in terms of education, income and employment were more likely to vote Leave. Our results indicate that a higher turnout of younger voters, who were more likely to vote Remain, would not have overturned the referendum result.read more
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Populism and the Economics of Globalization
TL;DR: The authors argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash, and distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight.
Journal ArticleDOI
Populism and the economics of globalization
TL;DR: The authors argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash, and distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight.
Book
Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism
Pippa Norris,Ronald Inglehart +1 more
TL;DR: The authors argued that the silent revolution in values triggered a backlash fuelling support for authoritarian-populist parties and leaders in the US and Europe, and highlighted the dangers of this development and what could be done to mitigate the risks to liberal democracy.
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The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the implications of the Great Recession for voting for anti-establishment parties, as well as for general trust and political attitudes, using regional data across Europe and find a strong relationship between increases in unemployment and voting for non-mainstream parties, especially populist ones.
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Global Competition and Brexit
Italo Colantone,Piero Stanig +1 more
TL;DR: The authors showed that support for the Leave option in the Brexit referendum was systematically higher in regions hit harder by economic globalization, and that the effect is driven by the displacement determined by globalization in the absence of effective compensation of its losers.
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An introduction to variable and feature selection
Isabelle Guyon,André Elisseeff +1 more
TL;DR: The contributions of this special issue cover a wide range of aspects of variable selection: providing a better definition of the objective function, feature construction, feature ranking, multivariate feature selection, efficient search methods, and feature validity assessment methods.
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Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
TL;DR: The authors found that voters hold the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot box, regardless of the democracy they vote in, and that good times keep parties in office, bad times cast them out.
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Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment
TL;DR: In this article, a large-scale field experiment involving several hundred thousand registered voters used a series of mailings to gauge the effects of priming intrinsic motives and applying varying degrees of extrinsic pressure.
Book
What Is Populism
TL;DR: Muller argues that at populism's core is a rejection of pluralism and proposes a number of concrete strategies for how liberal democrats should best deal with populists as discussed by the authors.
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Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach
Sendhil Mullainathan,Jann Spiess +1 more
TL;DR: This work presents a way of thinking about machine learning that gives it its own place in the econometric toolbox, and aims to make them conceptually easier to use by providing a crisper understanding of how these algorithms work, where they excel, and where they can stumble.
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The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result
Matthew J. Goodwin,Oliver Heath +1 more