Showing papers on "Economic stagnation published in 2007"

Nigeria's Economic Reforms: Progress and Challenges

Abstract: Following years of economic stagnation, Nigeria embarked on a comprehensive reform program during the second term of the Obasanjo administration. The program was based on the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and focused on four main areas: improving the macroeconomic environment, pursuing structural reforms, strengthening public expenditure management, and implementing institutional and governance reforms. This paper reviews Nigeria's recent experience with economic reforms and outlines major policy measures that have been implemented. Although there have been notable achievements under the program, significant challenges exist, particularly in translating the benefits of reforms into welfare improvements for citizens, in improving the domestic business environment, and in extending reform policies to states and local governments. Consequently, we argue that the recent reform program must be viewed as the initial steps of a much longer journey of economic recovery and sustained growth. This paper concludes by outlining a number of outstanding issues that future Nigerian administrations must address.

Corruption in Asia: Pervasiveness and arbitrariness

Abstract: How does one understand the differences and similarities of corruption among various Asian countries? We use a recent framework developed by Rodriguez, Uhlenbruck, and Eden (2005) to suggest that corruption has to be examined from two different dimensions: pervasiveness and arbitrariness. Using this framework, we ask why some Asian countries are able to achieve high levels of economic growth in the midst of high level corruption while other countries suffer from economic stagnation. We specifically suggest that more firms would bribe when pervasiveness is high, while fewer firms would bribe when arbitrariness is high. We also look into the implications on foreign direct investment.

Widening economic & social disparities: implications for India.

Abstract: India is often characterized as an emerging economic super power. The huge demographic dividend, the high quality engineering and management talent, the powerful Indian diaspora and the emerging Indian transnational--kneeling the optimism. In contrast, there is another profile of India which is rather gloomy. This is the country with the largest number of the poor, illiterates and unemployed in the world. High infant mortality, morbidity and widespread anaemia among women and children continue. India suffers from acute economic and social disparities. This article addresses four dimensions of such disparities, viz. regional, rural-urban, social, and gender. There is empirical evidence to indicate that during the last two decades all these disparities have been increasing. As a result of economic reforms, the southern and western States experienced accelerated economic and social development as compared to northern and eastern States. This has led to widening gap in income, poverty and other indicators of development between the two regions. Rural-urban divide also widened in the wake of reforms. While large and medium cities experience unprecedented economic prosperity, the rural areas experience economic stagnation. As a result, there is widespread agrarian distress which results in farmers' suicide and rural unrest. Socially backward sections, especially scheduled castes and tribes (SCs and STs) have gained little from the new prosperity which rewards disproportionately those with assets, skills and higher education. STs have often been victims of development as a result of displacement. The gender gap in social and economic status, traditionally more in India as compared to other societies; has further widened by the economic reforms and globalization. The approach paper to the Eleventh Plan stresses the importance of more inclusive economic growth. It emphasizes the need for bridging the divides discussed in this article. Unless these are achieved in a time-bound manner, there could be serious adverse implications for the Indian economy, society and politics.

Opportunity Recognition in Rural Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries

Abstract: The Rural Poverty Report 2001 stressed the need to develop poverty-reduction policies and programs with a primary emphasize on rural areas. This paper promotes rural entrepreneurship development as an effective strategy in alleviating rural poverty in developing countries and summarizes some policy options that would be helpful in implementing rural entrepreneurship. We focus specifically on opportunity recognition, a key element in the entrepreneurial process, and introduce a model that emphasizes intellectual, human, environmental and socio-cultural resources and the mediating effect of national framework conditions. Since the concepts behind the model tend to be applicable across all settings, it is important to study this model at the general level and then draw implications for the other countries. By studying what influences recognizing opportunities in rural areas, it may be easier to offer assistance to developing countries. INTRODUCTION According to the 2001 Rural Poverty Report (RPV), 75% of the world's poor live and work in rural areas, and the majority will remain so for several decades (IFAD Rural Poverty Report, 2001; IFAD 2002). The International Fund for Agricultural Development (LFAD) stressed the need for developing povertyreduction policies and programs with a primary emphasize on rural areas (IFAD Rural Poverty Report, 2001). Rural areas in developing countries are experiencing poverty and depopulation, are geographically more isolated, require infrastructure and subsidies, and have a lack of structural and institutional factors (IFAD Rural Poverty Report, 2001). Various social, economic, political and ecological problems in rural areas in developing countries create challenges in employment and cause increasing migration towards cities, decreasing agricultural production and increasing food shortage. A sustainable reduction in rural poverty necessitates the adaptation of further research and programs that help promote economic growth and development. Prior research indicates positive strong relationships among entrepreneurial activity, economic growth and poverty reduction (UN ICD Task Force, 2002). Entrepreneurship is a vital component of productivity and growth (Baumol, 1993). The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines entrepreneurs as "essential agents of change who accelerate the generation, application and spread of innovative ideas and in doing so . . . not only ensure efficient use of resources, but also expand the boundaries of economic activities" (Reynolds, Hay & Camp, 1999, p. 10). The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) reported a strong positive correlation between the level of economic activity and overall economic performance (Zacharakis, Reynolds & Bygrave, 1999). GEM reported that as firm startup rates increased, growth in national GDP and the employment rate increased (Zacharakis, et al, 1999). Therefore, acting as market innovators, entrepreneurs play critical roles in economic development (Schumpeter, 1934). To date there are some high-level initiatives and projects underway in supporting entrepreneurial activity in developing countries (IFAD Rural Poverty Report, 2001; UN ICD Task Force, 2002). Although these efforts to foster entrepreneurial development were recorded effective in creating employment, many developing countries are still unable to provide an environment conducive to entrepreneurship (UN ICD Task Force, 2002). This is due to a number of barriers (e.g., the lack of economic, social and community development) that hinder entrepreneurial talent in rural areas (Petrin, 1994). Rural entrepreneurship occurs in economically and socially depressed areas with inadequate infrastructure, economic stagnation, low levels of education, low skilled workers, low income, and a culture not supportive of entrepreneurship (Kulawczuk, 1998). Fostering entrepreneurship is a crucial factor in energizing the rural economy (Petrin & Gannon, 1997) in impoverished rural regions because entrepreneurship creates wealth and employment and has a profound impact on the quality of livelihood of rural populations (FAO Corporate Document Repository). …

Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective

Abstract: This paper documents several unique financial symptoms of Japanese economic stagnation in the 1990s. We find a surprising fall in firm-level volatility and turnover in Japanese stocks after the market crash in 1990. These results stand in sharp contrast to the U.S. case, where firm-level volatility generally increases after a market crash. Further analysis reveals a parallel sharp reduction in earnings heterogeneity among Japanese firms. Preliminary evidence suggests that the reduction in firm-level volatility may be related to Japanese business group protection. The large decrease in firm-level volatility may impede the equity market's information role, as it has made it more difficult over the past decade for both investors and managers to distinguish high quality from low-quality firms.

Monetary Union and the Transatlantic and Social Dimensions of Europe's Crisis

Abstract: Scholarship on the European Union (EU) has been overtaken by events. The ‘non's’ and ‘nee's’ on the Constitutional Treaty, two decades of economic stagnation in ‘core Europe’, welfare state retrenc...

Fiscal Squeeze and Social Policy during the Cardoso Administration (1995—2002):

Abstract: Conventional wisdom associates the two lost decades of economic stagnation in Brazil to macroeconomic imbalances and excessive budgetary deficits. This paper suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the fiscal crisis of the state in Brazil was the result of the liberalization strategy that started in 1989, and was accelerated and complemented during the Cardoso administration (1995-2002). In this view, the fiscal crisis of the State resulted from the financial liberalization of the 1990s and the increasing burden of interest payments on public debt. The interest burden, in turn, meant that fiscal spending on social policy was squeezed, a result that is common to liberalization experiences in the periphery. The amount of social spending was insufficient during the Cardoso administration, and problems were not restricted to inefficient spending.

Spatial Analysis of Rural Economic Development Using a Locally Weighted Regression Model

Abstract: This study uses locally weighted regression to identify county-level characteristics that serve as drivers of creative employment throughout the southern United States. We found that higher per capita income, greater infrastructure investments, and the rural nature of a county tended to promote creative employment density, while higher scores on a natural amenity index had the opposite effect. We were also able to identify and map clusters of rural counties where the marginal effects of these variables on creative employment density were greatest. These findings should help rural communities to promote creative employment growth as a means of furthering rural economic development. Key Words: creative class, locally weighted regression, natural amenities, rural economic development The post Industrial Revolution period in the United States has been a time of rapidly increasing agricultural productivity. During this time, the economy has gradually moved from one primarily based on agricultural production, to one based heavily on industrial production, and more recently to one based increasingly on service provision. These changes have led to a steady decline in the importance of agriculture to the economic base of rural America. For many geographic areas, the decline has not been offset by equivalent increases in other economic sectors, and the population has followed the jobs into other, generally more urban areas. As a result, the population of rural areas has been shrinking relative to that of urban areas and many rural areas are facing population losses. In fact, more than 25 percent of the nation's non-metro counties experienced a net loss of total population during the 1990s, and more than 85 percent of the U.S. counties that experienced net population losses during the 1990s were rural (McGranahan and Beale 2002). There is some concern that the depopulation of rural areas could gradually erode the ability of many of these communities to provide the public services necessary for their citizens (Huang, Orazem, and Wohlgemuth 2002). While overall population and economic growth in the southern United States over the past few decades has been strong, averages obscure some disturbing trends. ' For example, a pattern of dualistic development-where rapid economic growth in and around urban areas like Atlanta and Nashville is accompanied by economic stagnation and persistent poverty in more isolated areas-has come to characterize much of the South. This dualistic development tends to increase the disparity between wealthy urban areas and poorer, more isolated rural areas. As a result, the rural South has the highest concentration of persistent poverty in the nation, with 280 of the 340 non-metro persistent poverty counties identified in the 2000 U.S. Census as being located in the South (Jolliffe 2004). Thus, stimulating rural economic development in the South remains a vitally important goal for policymakers at the local, state, and national levels. Policymakers hoping to promote economic development have often focused on creating employment opportunities. Murdoch (2000) categorized policies designed to promote rural economic development on the basis of whether they promote "horizontal" or "vertical" networks. In Murdoch's terminology, "horizontal" networks link rural spaces to more general, non-agricultural processes of economic change. Policies based on "vertical" networks attempt to develop a rural economy by enhancing the links among various stages of the agro-food sector. The primary focus of the literature on rural economic development has been on "horizontal" networks. For example, rural economic growth has been examined with respect to transport costs (Kilkenny 1998), natural amenities, and quality of life characteristics (DeIler et al. 2001), farm subsides (Kilkenny 1993), sustainable energy for rural development (Byrne, Shen, and Wallace 1998), off-farm work decisions of husbands and wives (Huffman and Lange 1989), and more recently on "creative employment" opportunities (Rosenfeld 2004a, 2004b, 2005). …

Wages and regional coherence in the European Monetary Union

Abstract: One of the key problems of the EMU consists in the regional distortions which, on the one hand, can lead to deflationary developments in some regions, first of all Germany, and in the long run also in the EMU as a whole On the other hand, regions like Portugal, Italy or Spain are in danger of becoming regions of economic stagnation without the policy instruments available to come out of their unpleasant constellation These regional distortions which developed in the EMU with enormous speed reflect the insufficient integration and the lack of EMU institutions There are no EMU-wide unions and employers’ associations and EMU-wide wage negotiations can rarely be found Wage negotiations and wage developments in Portugal or Spain, for example, seem to have no connection with wage negotiations and wage developments in Germany, the Netherlands or Austria There have been attempts for a macroeconomic dialogue but they are too weak and not sufficiently supported by national governments, the European Commission and the European Central Bank From its historical roots the EMU is a political project Without a deeper political and institutional integration the EMU is economically fragile and likely to fall into deep regional problems with its entire social and political dimension What is needed is institution building of a European state in whatever form From the economic point of view a central state is needed to support the coherence of the EMU Besides wages there is the problem of fiscal policy It is highly questionable whether a monetary union without a strong central state can practice functional fiscal policy So far the Stability and Growth Pact has been a failure

Economic Development and Globalization in South Carolina

Abstract: As South Carolina entered the twenty-first century, a growing sense of concern about the effectiveness of the state's longstanding economic development policy emerged. From 1950 through 1980, South Carolina enjoyed remarkable success in the area of economic development. Per capita income, an accepted measure of economic growth, not only increased by nearly 400 percent in real terms but also rapidly gained on the national average, moving from just under 60 percent of the national average in 1950 to an impressive nearly 80 percent by 1980. As the state's per capita income steadily converged on the national figure, both quantitative and qualitative measures suggested that South Carolina had finally moved into the prosperous American economic mainstream. The state's population grew by nearly 50 percent during this era, providing the labor power needed to sustain development, and the process of urbanization also gained momentum as the percentage of the state's once heavily rural population living in urban areas increased from just less than 37 percent in 1950 to over 54 percent in 1980. (1) From 1980 through the end of the century, state policy makers, buoyed by this track record of success, vigorously pursued essentially the same development policies that had worked in earlier decades, making minor adjustments and adding new industrial recruiting incentives as various corporate prospects demanded and successive gubernatorial administrations thought appropriate. All of this was accomplished with generally bipartisan legislative support. These policies continued to bring impressive levels of outside investment to the state during times of national economic expansion, but by 2001 some South Carolina leaders noted that the once steady convergence of the state's per capita income toward the national average had ground to a halt. Since 1980 South Carolina's per capita income had hovered at or near 80 percent of the national average. Absolute increases in the state's per capita income were impressive during the two decades, and merely keeping pace with a national average that itself grew by more than 3 percent annually between 1980 and 2000 required no small amount of effort on the part of state development leaders. But hitting a plateau at four-fifths of the national average, a position that left South Carolina ranked regularly among the ten poorest states in the nation, hinted at deeper problems with the state's economic development strategies. (2) The relative stagnation of per capita income in South Carolina produced considerable hand-wringing in state development circles. Some experts blamed the traditional development strategy of "smokestack chasing," with its emphasis on attracting mature, and even declining, industries interested in relocating in lower wage and nonunion areas, for the slowing of income convergence. Others thought smokestack chasing had served the state well enough for a time but that South Carolina needed a new strategy designed to help a still undereducated state succeed in the emerging knowledge-based economy. "Economic development is now struggling to find its way in South Carolina," observed respected College of Charleston economist Frank Hefner early in 2006. "More of the same is not going to work because you can only get so many BMWs." Ironically, given the pride the state took in landing a big investment from the German automaker, other analysts linked the state's comparative economic stagnation directly to economic globalization. The rise of competitive, low-wage "off-shore" economies accompanying globalization have offered formidable challenges to the long-standing development strategies employed by most southern states. These strategies, which differed only marginally from Virginia to Louisiana, traditionally emphasized low labor costs and friendly business climates in an effort to attract mature industries looking for lower operating-cost environments. South Carolina's twenty-first century economic development crisis, one report claimed, centered on the flight of "low cost manufacturing jobs" overseas and the state's subsequent inability to find a "new economic identity" to "help pull the state out of an employment slump. …

Exploring Utopia (Limited) with a Companion

Abstract: For economic development, the central importance of commercial law, private enterprise and public infrastructure are undeniable. Yet trying to transplant such in situations when they are foreign can add political turmoil to economic stagnation. Drawing on The Elgar Companion to Development Studies (2006), this dilemma is explored with implications for the appropriate definition of 'institutions'; the meaning of property rights and the mechanisms of conflict resolution.

Human Capital, Innovation, and Productivity Growth: Tales from Latin America and Caribbean

Abstract: Why have Latin American and Caribbean countries (LAC countries) not replicated Western economic success? We investigate the reasons behind the economic stagnation of LAC countries for the past four decades We utilize a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index for relevant cross-country and over time productivity growth, technological change, and technical efficiency change comparisons We document that productivity growth differences between LAC countries and Western countries can only partially be attributed to human capital differences We argue that along with inefficient production, differences in civil, political, and economic policies and institutions are promising factors in explaining the long-run economic performance of LAC countries

China's Economic Development from 1860 to the Present: The Roles of Sovereignty and the Global Economy

Abstract: Radically different consequences flowed from China's interaction with the global economy during two periods, from 1860 to 1949, and from 1949 to the present. From 1860 to 1949, China's economy stagnated. From 1949 to the present, China's economy grew annually from 4 to 10 percent. 'These different rates resulted from a combination of the levels of Chinese sovereignty and the nature of the global economic environment during each period. From 1860 until 1949, foreign military-imposed unequal treaties reduced China's sovereignty levels and the international economic environment was characterized by predatory trade practices of the European imperialist powers. Together, these two factors reduced the opportunities for China to economically develop through interaction with the global environment from 1860 to 1949, and lead to Chinese economic stagnation. After 1949, Chinese communists regained full national sovereignty and used this control to take over ownership of China's domestic economy from both foreign and Chinese investors. The global economic environment also became less militarily interventionist (imperialist) and more conducive to non-Western economic development. These two new factors combined to lead to successful Chinese economic development from 1949 to 1978, and even faster economic development from 1978 to the present. In sum, low Chinese sovereignty levels before 1949, combined with predatory global economic practices, meant that China was less able to gain potential economic benefits from interacting with the global economic environment. China's economy therefore stagnated from 1860 to 1949. Conversely, higher sovereignty levels gained by China after 1949, combined with a less imperialist global environment, permitted post-1949 China to make major economic development gains from interaction with the global economic environment from 1949 to 1978, and even larger gains after 1978. A. Introduction In 1949, the newly established People's Republic of China designed and carried out economic development policies that led to an annual average economic growth rate of about 4 percent from 1953 to 1978, among the highest in the developing world at the time (Hu, pp. 103-131, World Bank, 1978, Wang, 2000). In 1978, China began post-Mao economic reforms that have since achieved per capital economic growth of 8 to 10 percent annually, among the highest rates in economic development history(Hu, pp. 103-131, World Bank, 1997, Wang. 2000). Studies of China's respectable 1949-1978 economic growth, as well as its dramatic post-1978 economic expansion, have pointed both to domestic and to global factors to explain China's post-1949 economic growth. Domestic factors include the People's Republic of China's (PRC) economic development policies, high savings rates, government control of investment capital, Chinese Confucian culture, and the lessons from Chinese experiences with the pre-1949 global economy. Good social capital in the form of a huge pool of healthy, basically literate, and motivated lowwage workers has also been cited as an important factor in China's post-1978 economic development. Global economic factors, crucial for China's post-1978 growth, include global economy trade opportunities, foreign investment, foreign advice, foreign loans, export-lead development opportunities, export processing zones, investment and assistance by Chinese from Hong Kong and other parts of "greater China," and the examples of successful export-led economic development by Japan and by the four Asian "tigers" (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) (World Bank, 1997). When we examine China's economic development performance before 1949, however, we see a very negative picture, one of prolonged stagnation rather than of successful economic growth. Before 1800, Imperial China under the Qing Dynasty was a major world economic power, accounting for roughly 32 percent of the world's economy (Maddison, 1998). …

When Fragile Become Friable: Endemic Control Fraud as a Cause of Economic Stagnation and Collapse

Abstract: Individual “control frauds” cause greater losses than all other property crime combined. They are financial super-predators. Control frauds are crimes by the head of state or CEO that use the nation or company as a “weapon.” Waves of “control fraud” can cause economic collapses, discredit institutions vital to governance, and erode trust. Fraud’s defining element is deceit – the criminal creates and then betrays trust. Fraud erodes trust. Endemic control fraud causes institutions and trust to crumble and produces economic stagnation. Economic theory about fraud is underdeveloped, economists are not taught about fraud mechanisms, and economists minimize the incidence and importance of fraud for reasons of self-interest, class and ideology. Economists’ understanding of fraud is so weak that its policies produce criminogenic environments that cause waves of control fraud. Thus the paradox: neo-classical economic triumphs produce tragedy. Perverse policies led to four recent crises: the deregulation of the savings & loan (S&L) industry produced the S&L debacle, “shock therapy” caused Russian economy to collapse, the “Washington consensus” produced a wave of control fraud in Latin America, and the desupervision of the U.S. economy in the 1980s and 1990s led to a wave of control fraud that contributed to the $9 trillion loss in U.S. stock market capitalization. Globalization transmits these crises through “contagion.” The economics canon must incorporate criminological fraud theories. If it is bad criminology it is bad economics. If neo-classical economics predicts something that criminologists have falsified the economic theory is incorrect. Criminologists have found that neo-classical policies erode the institutions that constrain control fraud and make markets more efficient. These policies damage markets and aid the financial super-predators who harm markets and democracy.

O milagre irlandês como exemplo da adoção de uma estratégia nacional de desenvolvimento

Abstract: This paper discusses the Irish experience in the 90s, and details the main aspects of the impressive and rapid transition from a situation of excessive indebtedness, economic stagnation and high unemployment to sustainable growth. The presence of a national development strategy seems to be the crucial institutional tool that allowed this transition.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

Abstract: This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

Globalizing Asia: Towards a New Development Paradigm

Abstract: Asia is a rising leader in the international political and economic system. Japan plus the Four Dragons, Five Tigers and two potential world economic powers — they all positively describe Asia. Y et Asia is also identified with "orientalism," Asian values, and the Pacific way. The economic crisis in 1997 challenged the multiple Asias and its various cultural and religious traditions to conform to global standards through structural adjustment programs. The crisis functioned as a test bed of the market, state, and culture approach to Asian development. However, the negative impacts of top-down economic globalization have shown us that the structural adjustment programs end with social dissolution, political decay, and economic stagnation. Given this, this article suggests, tentatively, an alternative development paradigm for globalizing Asia: the "stakeholder model" of capitalism. This model highlights the critical role of NGOs in committing themselves to the organized interests of the people as public goods.

Inequality of nations, endogenous fluctuations, and financial market globalization : a dynamic general equilibrium approach

Abstract: The goal of the thesis is to analyze theoretically as to how the financial globalization and the distribution of world income may be related. Does the financial market globalization exert an equalizing force? Or is it responsible for the economic stagnation of some countries in the world? These questions will be investigated in more detail with special attention on the interactions of economies. From a technical point of view we will treat the world economy as a dynamical system in which two countries interact in a single global financial market. The economic agents in the two countries are homogenous and each economy has an identical structure and an identical law of evolution. The purpose of this simplification is to identify the mechanism of the global financial market instead of searching for country specific reasons why a country might be relatively poor or rich. There are two main aspects of the mechanism in the global market today that we will study in detail. The first aspect is related to the size of population within countries. The second aspect is the role of nominal assets in allocating savings for production.

The Coevolution of Economic and Political Development from Monarchy to Democracy

Abstract: This paper establishes a simple model of long run economic and political development, which is driven by the inherent technical features of different production factors and the political conflicts among factor owners on how to divide the outputs. The main production factor in economy evolves from land to physical capital and then to human capital, which enables their respective owners (landlords, capitalists, and workers) to gain political power in the same sequence, shaping the political development path from monarchy to oligarchy and ?finally to democracy with full suffrage. When it is too costly for any group of factor owners to repress others, political compromise is reached and economic progress is not blocked; otherwise, the political conflicts may lead to economic stagnation.

Conclusions: A diversity of machizukuri processes and outcomes

Abstract: In drawing out the main findings of the studies collected here, two notes of caution should be raised. First, machizukuri and other citizens’ movements spread and grew enormously in a period of economic stagnation during the lost decade-and-a-half since 1990. In 2006, Japan’s economy seems to have picked up again and land prices started rising in some urban areas for the first time after 15 years of continuous decline. New growth dynamics may emerge that could restrict the ability of citizens to gain greater influence in managing urban change. It is impossible to know what impacts changing economic conditions will have on citizens’ movements engaged in attempts to play a role in managing change in places where they live. Our focus here is on understanding the meaning and extent of past developments.

Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

Abstract: The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

The Competitive Potential of Asian Business Groups: A Comparative Analysis of Kigyo Shudan and Chaebol

Abstract: Large, diversified business groups from Asian countries have attracted the interest of researchers and practitioners for many years. Until the 1990s, they were mostly regarded as one of the key factors for the longterm economic success of the East Asian region (Tselichtchev, 1999). Following Japan’s economic stagnation throughout the past decade and the serious trouble that most East Asian countries experienced during and after the 1997 financial crisis, however, the Asian business groups have been assessed with more critical eyes recently. They are now often seen as an obstacle to the structural reform of the economic system of Asian countries (Jwa and Lee, 2000).

Long-term Stability through Reforms. The Power of Localism in the Northern Caucasus.

Abstract: The paper is devoted to an analysis of governance strategies in the conditions of the reforms of local governance and land use. Two central Caucasian regions Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia were selected for paired comparison of similar institutional, geographic and ethnic features but different means of conflict development: relatively successful decrease of tensions that arose in the early 1990s – in Kabardino-Balkaria, and a dangerous development of the conflict in Karachay-Cherkessia. In the context of the reform the strategy in Kabardino-Balkaria is based on the freezing of democratic processes like decentralization and pluralism, as well as a presidential veto on land privatization while in Karachay-Cherkessia the privatization of agricultural land is going ahead at full speed, pluralism in media brings activity to the political life of the republic, etc. So, stability in Kabardino-Balkaria, based as it is on conservative and often non-democratic methods of governance, has led to social and economic stagnation, while tensions in Karachay-Cherkessia adjoin with the growth of social and economic activities. Particular emphasis is placed on tension during land privatization and reform of local governance. On the local level of governance a “change of hats” takes place, while most of the features from the Soviet period remain. The state declares the maintaining of self-management on the local level while in the reality the redistribution of resources and power takes place. During the privatization of land, no conflicts between ethnic groups were revealed, but there were between the state and locals (peasants, villages, etc.). The most effective strategy of keeping balance between reforms and stability is based on the development of institutional diversity and involving local actors (strategy of “localism”).