Showing papers on "Energy planning published in 1999"

Advanced bottom-up modelling for national and regional energy planning in response to climate change

Abstract: This paper describes an advanced bottom-up approach for modelling the energy-environment sector to study greenhouse gas abatement. Three new features are described that give significant new capabilities to this class of models. These are endogenisation of end-use demands, which allows computation of partial equilibria in energy markets; modelling future uncertainties using multi-stage stochastic programming; and combining several bottom-up models as a multi-region model to explore issues of cooperation and burden-sharing. Each of these new features is illustrated by results taken from large-scale extended MARKAL models of Quebec and Ontario. The focus of the paper is on the nature of issues that can be addressed by this methodology, rather than on specific conclusions drawn from the discussed examples. We believe that a very promising avenue of research lies in exploring the role of multiple advanced bottom-up models in the integrated assessment of climate change.

A Green Energy Plan for Denmark

Abstract: Several political regulation instruments -- such as CO2 taxes -- have been suggested to implement CO2 reduction policies. But normally the cost of implementing CO2 reduction policies is considered to be a threat to both economic growth and employment. But to some extent, strategies can be developed which implement CO2 reduction goals by creating jobs and such strategies could help economic growth. This note presents the main results from a research project, in the Department of Development and Planning at Aalborg University. More detailed information of the full study is given in (Lund 1996: 2) and (Lund 1997). The research project has had the primary purpose of determining the consequences for employment and the need for foreign exchange in the investments in the different types of energy plants in Denmark. From this information it has been possible to develop and calculate the consequences of various energy strategies, which seek to avoid the conflict between environment, employment and economic growth. One example of such a strategy is called the Green Energy Plan. The Green Energy Plan, was published by the General Workers' Union and used as an input to the public debate on the future of energy in Denmark in the spring of 1996 (Lund 1996: 2). The official Danish energy plan Energy 21 (Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy 1996) was adopted soon after the public debate.

Energy planning and environmental management with the information and decision support system MESAP

Abstract: Sound energy and environmental accounting must be the basis of any strategic decision making in order to keep up with the increasing complexity of energy and environmental problems. Therefore, improvements in the data management of existing decision support tools become essential. MESAP, the Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning environment, integrates modern information management with existing operations research methodologies. The design principles are flexibility concerning structure and aggregation of the analysed system, modularity of the involved methodologies and user friendliness of the software. The essential aspect of MESAP is the standardisation of the data interface achieved through the separation of the database design from the mathematical modelling algorithms. The database is designed as a case study information system and can serve any process–engineering oriented energy system model. Today, MESAP is used at the local, regional and national level to perform energy and environmental management, demand side management, integrated resource planning, life cycle and fuel chain analysis.

Model-based decision support in energy planning

Abstract: Models have become standard tools in energy planning. Fast computers and ever improving optimisation packages now allow us to solve problems within a few minutes that were out of range 20 years ago and that 10 years ago could only be solved in several CPU–hours. Fully interactive data bank systems with standardised user interfaces and on–line data access support easy modifications and adaptations of energy models, retrieval and display of results, as well as coupling decision support tools to all kinds of data available in the system. This article gives a brief overview of the objectives in energy planning, especially with respect to different planning horizons. It reviews the types of models applied to different applications and the requirements such tools have to satisfy. The second part surveys some applications of energy optimisation models. These examples have been chosen to illustrate different application areas of energy models from short–term optimal power supply up to very long–term (100 years) resource allocation and technology choice, and from optimising a municipal district heat system up to an energy model for the whole world.

Identifying social attitudes to assist urban energy planning in Leicester

Abstract: A study of social attitudes to urban energy management strategies has been undertaken as part of a research project aiming to develop an energy planning tool for urban planners. The study used a social survey to predict attitudinal responses to proposed engineering solutions, namely load management, energy efficiency and alternative supply options (renewable energy). The principal influence on attitude formation, which emerges from the literature and this study, appears to be socio-economic conditioning.The results indicate that Leicester citizens are open to alternative energy strategies, such as a willingness to pay additional amounts of money for electricity generated from renewable or sustainable sources and the purchase of low energy appliances. Over half the sample surveyed would pay up to 5% extra for an energy-efficient appliance, and a significant minority would pay extra for 'green' energy. In addition, 73% of respondents are sympathetic to Demand-side Management measures such as interruptible t...

Fuzzy linear programming for DSS in energy planning

Abstract: Energy system planning requires the use of planning tools that help to design the energy systems under consideration. The mathematical models of real world energy systems are usually multi–period linear optimisation (LP) programs. In these models, the objective function describes the total discounted costs of covering the demand for final energy or energy services. The demand for various forms of energy or energy services is the driving force of the models. By using such LP formulations, decision makers can elaborate suitable strategies to solve their planning problems such as the development of emission reduction strategies. Uncertainties that affect the process of energy system planning can be divided in parameter and in decision uncertainties. Data or parameter uncertainties can be addressed either by stochastic optimisation or by the methodology of fuzzy linear programming (flp). In addition, fuzzy linear programming allows the explicit incorporation of decision uncertainties in a mathematical model. Employing the parallels between multi–objective linear programming (MOLP) and FLP, problems of FLP in DSS–applications are pointed out and solutions are offered. The proposed interactive procedure for solving FLP problems is based on the methodology of aspiration–reservation based decision support and still enables modelling of uncertainties in a fuzzy sense.

The Gendered Politics of Fuel in India

Abstract: Indian energy planning is still driven by the traditional supply-oriented mentality emphasiz ing the development of power, coal and hydrocarbons, without adequate regard to specific end-uses that determine the demand as well as the social and environment costs of provid ing these services. Despite the increase in the quantum of energy supplied, a vast section of the population has not benefitted, particularly as far as energy for cooking is concerned.This paper, while focusing on the rural sector, also examines the kind of interventions that have been made thus far ostensibly to address the issue of domestic energy. In the first place, what comes out quite starkly is that resources going into the Biogas Program and the Improved Chulha (cookstove) Program, the two most important programs directly aimed at the rural poor and women in particular, have been declining quite sharply. Second, the indicators chosen to monitor performance are defined in terms of number of plants installed and/or facilities provide...

Evaluación de los Planes Energéticos Nacionales en España (1975-1998)

Abstract: Nowadays, energy planning has lost all the importance that used to have in the Spanish economy. However; its study is essential to explain the development of Spanish energy markets during the last fifty years. The National Energy Plan (PEN) was the main instrument of the Spanish planner; who used the models of energy demand in order to forecast market conditions, as well as to justify processes of substitution among energy sources (often oriented to privilege certain supply sectors). In an attempt to forecast demand, PENs included an increasing number of variables and a growing complexity. However; sector efficiency objectives were not always reached, and the loose of competitiveness could not always be avoided.

Energy policy, planning and the environment in developing countries

Abstract: MICROCOSM is a modified system- dynamics model of the energy sector of a developing country, intended for energy analysis work of short duration in small, data-poor economies. It is also quite useful for quick survey use on a regional or national basis in more complex economies and assists in early identification of sectoral bottlenecks in major energy planning projects. Its other major application is in the teaching and training of energy planners and policy makers. MICROCOSM is an indicative planning tool for professionals in the energy-planning field. It does not-present an optimal solution to balancing energy supply and demand, but is intended for circumstances where there are insufficient data to reach such conclusions. The purpose of this article is to explain the way in which the model works, as well as the equations upon which it is based. It concentrates on the conceptual basis and methodology, in order to assist the reader-in understanding th-e model.

Development of energy consumption and energy efficiency potential in the Brazilian industrial sector according to the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM)

Abstract: This paper presents the development of energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector and energy efficiency potential based on the analysis undertaken through a model developed in the Energy Planning Program at COPPE/UFRJ, known as the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM). The study starts by presenting the IEPM, which is a technical and economic parameter-based model designed to forecast energy supplies and consumption for all economic sectors in Brazil, within three scenarios. Outlines of all three scenarios are presented, as they were constructed according to certain specific assumptions. The industrial sector was broken down into eleven sub-sectors: food and beverages, ceramics, cement, iron and steel, mining and pelletizing, ferroalloys, non-ferrous metals and others (metallurgy), chemicals, pulp and paper, textiles and other industries (MME, 1998). All these sub-sectors will also be presented as well as the results of the scenario forecasts. Results deriving from these forecasts come from very specific studies that analyze all process steps in each sub-sector in order to propose energy replacements, efficiency improvements of structural production alterations that result in major potential energy consumption reductions. Last but not least, this paper gives the development forecasts deriving from the three scenarios over ten years, with their contributions tomore » energy efficiency in the Brazilian industrial sector, showing that the authors can reduce energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector by: substituting less efficient processes by more efficient ones, through the conversion of final energy into usable energy, basically, in the cement and aluminum industries; replacing equipment and energy sources; modifying product mix of several industries (pulp and paper), assigning top priority to producing goods with higher added value that are less energy intensive, and, finally, reducing the share held by some energy intensive sectors in the industrial output.« less

Revisiting rural energy analysis

Abstract: Rural energy planning is characterised by matching, as far as possible, the available local energy supply with various energy end-uses. For this matching, decision-makers have to consider several issues, such as cost, technology, sustainability and equity. These objectives are conflicting and, therefore, it is difficult to find an optimised solution. Therefore, such problems should be analysed by an alternative method, such as multiobjective programming, by which more than one objective can be analysed simultaneously. This paper reviews rural energy planning and illustrates the use of a multiobjective method in rural energy analysis. The method is applied to study energy problem of a rural area in Nepal. The preliminary results, which can be taken as a guideline in the formulation of energy policy, are also presented.