Showing papers on "Energy policy published in 1977"

The Effects of the New Energy Regime on Economic Capacity, Production, and Prices

Abstract: 11’ HE quadrupling of OPEC oil prices in late 1973 and early 1974 had a profound and permanent impact on the U.S. economy. The initial impact was an explosion in the prices of most goods and services, as well as the longest and most severe decline in national output since the 1930s. The recession trough occurred over two years ago and the rate of inflation has fallen substantially since 1974. While the inflation rate remains quite high by historical standards, the primary focus of concern, at least in official circles, seems to have shifted toward the persistence of an unacceptably high unemployment rate and the associated loss of national output. More importantly, the mounting concern over the immediate problem posed by unemployment seems to have obscured the permanent effect of the energy price revision. The large increase in the price of energy in 1974 permanently reduced economic capacity, or the potential output of the U.S. economy, by four to five per~ cent. The productivity of existing capital and labor resources was sharply reduced. Policy discussions which fail to account for the permanence of these changes, especially in the face of persistent unemployment, contribute to an overstatement of the benefits to be obtained from a conventional policy of aggregate demand stimulus. In order to clarify the gains which may be expected from a stimulative economic policy and the accompanying inflation risks, it is useful to examine the impact of the energy price revision on prices, production and employment.1 To facilitate this discussion,

Economic and Technological Models for Evaluation of Energy Policy

Abstract: Models for energy policy assessment have been developed using both process analysis and econometrics. The process approach provides for the incorporation of information on future technological and structural changes based on detailed engineering studies. The econometric approach is well adapted to the description of aggregative consumer behavior and economic activity. This paper presents a new approach for policy assessment, integrating process analysis and econometric models that have been used extensively in energy policy analysis and technology assessment. The application of this approach is illustrated by an analysis of a national research, development, and demonstration plan for the United States. 30 references.

An Early Energy Crisis and its Consequences

Abstract: In the 16th century Britain ran out of wood and resorted to coal. The adoption of the new fuel set in motion a chain of events that culminated some two centuries later in the industrial revolution.

Non-tracking solar energy collector system

Abstract: A solar energy collector system characterized by an improved concentrator for directing incident rays of solar energy on parallel vacuum-jacketed receivers or absorbers including a plurality of individually mounted reflector modules of a common asymmetrical triangular cross-sectional configuration supported for independent reorientation and defining a plurality of asymmetric vee-trough concentrators.

Window design strategies to conserve energy

Abstract: A multitude of design strategies are available to achieve energy-efficient windows. Opportunities for improving window performance fall into six groups: site, exterior appendages, frame, glazing, interior accessories, and building interior. Design strategies within these groups can improve one or more of the six energy functions of windows i.e., solar heating, daylighting, shading, insulation, air tightness, and ventilation. Included are 33 strategies; an explanation of the physical phenomena responsible for each strategy's energy performance, summarized energy and non-energy advantages and disadvantages; aesthetic considerations; cost approximations; example installations, laboratory studies, or calculations by the authors; and references. Intended readers include professional designers, lessees and owners of commerical space, home buyers and owners, window component manufacturers, and researchers. This report draws attention to the wide range of options currently available to conserve energy with windows.

Energy Security and Foreign Policy: A Review Essay

Abstract: In the three years since the oil embargo of 1973-1974 even casual newspaper readers have become aware that there are links between energy, security and foreign policy. Precisely what these links comprise is not always clear, beyond acknowledgment that governments cannot define their security solely on the basis of military forces-in-being or planned. Despite the fact that access to resources, especially fossil fuels, has become an integral part of any security equation for industrial countries, their energy policies remain fragmented and subject to the vagaries of domestic politics as well as the pressures of foreign policy. The problems of energy "dependence," "independence," and "interdependence" are being debated in a burgeoning literature for laymen and specialists. For social scientists, the problem is to sort out the transient from the more enduring works, lest useful insights be buried in an avalanche of books and monographs. There may be something for everyone, but few will have the time to wade through the tirades, polemics, harangues and tracts without some guidelines. Thus this essay has three purposes: first, to highlight the most valuable volumes; second, to explore the relationship between energy, security and foreign policy; and third, to suggest an agenda for continuing research.

Rising Energy Prices and Regional Economic Development

Abstract: Traditionally, development planners and policymakers have based their activities and programs on the export base theory embedded in a Clark-Fisher development model. The propulsive force of economic development in the model is technological progress and the gains in productivity that new technology engenders. A review of the model shows that it stands up well when used to explain the pattern of regional development in the United States between the Civil War and the beginning of World War II. The most immediate impact of the energy crisis (on the fiscal positions of various states) is discussed first; then the impact on the location of industry is analyzed briefly. The author points out that two major regional development programs started in the 1960s--the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Economic Development Administration--have not been outstandingly successful in reducing interregional disparities. He concludes that ''neither conventional regional development policies nor reliance on market forces will permit the nation to cope with the difficulties that will be faced by energy-poor, highly industrialized regions. New policies will have to be devised to help these regions adjust to the structural changes which further increases in energy prices are almost certain to engender.'' (MCW)

Conventional crude oil resources of the United States: recent estimates, methods for estimation, and policy considerations

Abstract: M. King Hubbert, for a decade or more, has been calling for reduction in the size of the estimates of our undiscovered oil resources. The course of recent history seems to lend certification to the Hubbert doctrine. Additionally, recent estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey of undiscovered domestic oil resources appear to be closer to the undiscovered resources implied by Hubbert's analysis than they are to earlier estimates by the Survey. While this fact does not prove that Hubbert's analysis is correct, it lends weight to such a suggestion. Part I of this paper consists of a detailed examination of the methods used by Hubbert in arriving at his estimates of the ultimate supply of oil from the conterminous U.S. While this examination can stand alone as a comprehensive critique of his quantitative methods, the implication of Hubbert's methodology is not fully appreciated without exploring just what the numerical forecast represents. Such exploration is the substance of Part II of this paper. As a part of this exploration, a comprehensive comparison is made of the potential supply indicated by Hubbert's analysis and that indicated by the analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey. Part III examines policy issues in light ofmore » the potential indicated for undiscovered resources and future supply.« less

Transportation Energy Conservation Data Book, edition 2

Abstract: This document contains statistical information on the major transportation modes, their respective energy consumption patterns, and other pertinent factors influencing performance in the transportation sector Data relating to past, present, and projected energy use and conservation in the transportation sector are presented under seven chapter headings These focus on (1) modal transportation characteristics, (2) energy characteristics of the transportation sector, (3) energy conservation alternatives involving the transportation sector, (4) government impacts on the transportation sector, (5) the supply of energy to the transportation sector, (6) characteristics of transportation demand, and (7) miscellaneous reference materials such as energy conversion factors and geographical maps References are included for each set of data presented, and a more general bibliography is included at the end of the book In addition, a glossary of key terms and a subject index is provided for the user A second edition of this document is scheduled for publication in September 1977

The Role of Institutional Relationships in French Energy Policy

Abstract: nature of the final sanction. Policies evolved by the interplay of private interests sanctioned by the market will contain unstable elements, which the companies will do their best to remove, and will generally deal with the future in unspecific terms. Policies produced by elected representatives in a democratic political system will also contain unstable elements. Policies produced by single party systems or evolved by strong administrations will be comparatively difificult to reverse, but may contain severe economic penalties. The alleged conflict between the priorities of politicians, which are to stay in power and to attend to the urgent rather than the important matters, and the needs of policy making for a long view and arbitration in the collective interest are nowhere so

Structure, System and Economic Policy

Abstract: This is a volume of papers organized by Professor Leontief for the 1976 meeting of the Economics section of the British Association for the Advancement of Science. After a paper by Professor Leontief applying input-output to the future of the world economy, other papers consider prices, regional problems, material supplies, urban problems, technical progress, unemployment and energy policy. There are two papers with a broader view of the British economy, one surveying government policy on the industrial structure of the economy and one considering the use of input-output for monitoring the development of the economy.

Energy Policy and The Politics of Economic Development

Abstract: here is a remarkable degree of consensus among public policy T analysts, policy makers, politicians, the media, and various interest group spokesmen that energy policies in advanced industrial nations are not meeting the requirements of the post-1973 era.’ The stimuli of a fivefold oil price increase and a painfully revealed pattern of asymmetrical interdependence and vulnerability have not sufficed to bring about any very substantial changes in national energy policy. Oil importing countries are as exposed to future supply and price uncertainties in 1977 as they were in 1973. Policy change has been largely symbolic-a “politics of reassurance” in the form of variants of Project Independence. National energy policies have been and remain fixed in what Lovins (1976a) calls a “hard path,” i.e., a definition ‘of the problem as mainly one of how to increase energy supplies, and a preoccupation with complex, large-scale, centralized, high-technology, and nonrecewable sources of supply. This policy path has been accompanied necessarily by strenuous efforts on the part of government decision makers and energy producers to overcome resistance to these measures, and to guarantee security of access to overseas sources by whatever available means. There also seqms to be a growing concern that a continuation in this policy trajectory may portend

U. S. --Saudi relations and the oil crises of the 1980s

Abstract: A firm energy policy statement from the United States should enhance our position with Arab leaders, reassert our leadership in the Western Alliance, and promote conservation and domestic energy development. Oil imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are reviewed in the context of the economic interests of individual OPEC nations rather than from the usual supply and demand view of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries (OECD). The argument is made for closing the gap between future demand and internal non-OPEC supplies by increasing conservation measures, particularly in the United States. U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia, whose oil resources have been developed only by American companies, will either remain cooperative or turn to confrontation as Arab-Israli relations evolve and America decreases her dependence on OPEC oil. The needs of individual OPEC nations to gear their oil production and price structures to their own economic development needs is explored, with emphasis on U.S.--Saudi Arabia relations. (DCK)

Net energy analysis of five energy systems

Abstract: A net-energy analysis is performed for each of five developing energy technologies: ocean thermal energy conversion, wind energy conversion, in-situ oil shale processing, fluidized-bed coal combustion, and municipal solid-waste utilization. Energy expenditures required during construction and life-long operation and maintenance are estimated using input-output and process analyses. These expenditures, including both direct and indirect consumption, are classified as capital or operating expenditures and as expenditures for electric or nonelectric inputs to the systems. Various ratios that compare the anticipated energy product of a system to its estimated energy subsidy are defined. It is not, in general, possible to compare dissimilar technologies on the basis of these performance indices. However, the indices do indicate all of the systems considered here are net producers of energy and decisions to proceed with development and deployment should be based on other considerations.

Agricultural policy implications of changing energy prices and supplies

Abstract: Various methods for evaluating energy related problems in agriculture are described, including energy accounting and economics analyses. Adjustments at both the micro- and macro-levels to energy price increases and shortages are discussed, together with relevant governmental policies.

Energy behavior: conservation without coercion. [Influencing groups rather than individuals]

Abstract: A psychological and social analysis of the energy problem confirms fears that there are no simple or sure answers. The authors show that the most obvious strategy, direct incentives to individuals for conservation, is an illusory solution, but suggest two approaches that are supported by behavioral knowledge. One strategy relies on strong government action at the national level to promote energy conservation through a combination of appeal to national feelings and a threat of future coercion to change people's attitudes and behavior. This plan implies a major political struggle that may well be lost. The other strategy uses incentives to communities for conservation and for local development of renewable energy resources. This plan divides common energy resources into smaller, more manageable parts and actively involves people at the local level so that personal commitment and group consciousness both will be increased. These two strategies, as well as any others that will not have obvious negative consequences for society, deserve vigorous support. If we do not achieve an orderly transition to a stable state, we can expect a disorderly transition to a much less desirable society. Our future life-style and standard of living are at stake. 21 references.

Analysis of policy options for accelerating commercialization of solar heating and cooling systems

Abstract: Feasible policy options designed to accelerate the commercialization of solar heating and cooling (SHAC) systems are described and analyzed Both qualitative and quantitative estimates of the costs/benefits of different policy options are made The critical problem of interfacing dispersed SHAC systems with the public utilities is analyzed A comprehensive discussion of the legal, regulatory, and institutional problems confronting the rapid commercialization of SHAC systems is presented ERDA patent policy is analyzed as it relates to solar heating and cooling The complex problems involved in building codes, standards, and warranties are discussed Marketing, manpower, consumer, and environmental issues are analyzed The principle that any federal solar energy incentives program must be flexible enough to permit tailoring the program to fit the particular needs, characteristics, and natural incentives of the United States is emphasized (MHR)

Resource taxation, tax exportation, and regional energy policies

Abstract: An analysis of energy policies and natural resource taxes, specifically severance taxes on coal, in the Rocky Mountain Region examines how public policies can be used to achieve alternative economic objectives. Over 42 percent of the country's coal reserves are located in six states, which vary in the extent of their reserves, production, and export and disagree on the use and importance of coal taxes. Severance taxes and a combination of severance and property taxes are considered in a model of three states covering a range of coal supply and demand. A comparison of the results with the current situation in the Rocky Mountain Region considers the effectiveness of a uniform taxing cartel in maximizing total tax revenue and constraining tax exportation. Severance taxes are seen to accomplish the objectives of states with high production levels but create instability for the region because of the need to rely on property taxes in the states having less coal production. (DCK)