Showing papers on "Fertility published in 1973"

A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior

Abstract: A static economic theory of lifetime marital fertility is presented within the context of the economic theory of the family. The theoretical model is developed under a set of restrictive assumptions designed to make it analytically tractable and capable of yielding implications which may be tested with individual data on the number of children born to recent cohorts of American women who have completed their fertility. The model also has implications for child "quality" which is defined as a function of the resources parents devote to each child and for the wifes lifetime market earnings capacity and labor supply. Focus is on fertility as a form of economic behavior fertility demand and the demand for child quality the supply of child services and the allocation of time desired fertility and wifes labor force participation and empirical results. On the basis of the evidence presented it appears that the interaction model captures an important empirical regularity in the cross-section relationship between fertility and measures of husbands income and wifes education that has become apparent in the emergence of a U-shaped relationship between fertility and income. This relationship has been observed in many advanced countries in the past 25 years and was an incipient relation at the lower levels of income and education prevailing in earlier periods. This empirical regularity is also consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model of fertility demand developed in this paper and must therefore be counted as evidence in its favor.

The value of children to parents.

Abstract: Studies on the value of children to parents in several socioeconomic strata of the U.S. and around the world are reviewed. Although these studies are not comparable due to widely varying methodologies they all point to several intrinsic values in the parent-child relationship. There are 4 reasons for studying the value of children: to motivate fertility regulation to anticipate compensations which might be necessary to achieve small family size to predict fertility motivations and population trends and to consider the value of children in the parent-child relationship. In less developed countries children have ec onomic value both in the present and as support in old age. In developed countries however children are an economic liability. Yet Americans still want 2-3 children. Studies have shown that in the U.S. children signify the parent has reached adult status and provide social identity. Children are also an expansion of the self into a larger entity which is related to social norms regarding the desirability of having children as the "natural" thing to do. Children also provide pri mary group ties stimulation fun and a feeling of creativity. For some parents they provide a feeling of power and a means of social comparison or competition. A theoretical model is then presented to help determine changes which would result in a decreased desire for children. It consists of 5 classes of variables: 1) the value of children 2) alternative sources of the value 3) costs 4) barriers and 5) facilitators. Female employment as an alternative to childrearing is explored using this model. It is concluded that child-care centers would not decrease fertility because it would make it easier for women at all economic levels to have children and work. Since the educated woman is more likely to find satisfying employment her fertility is likely to decrease but the uneducated woman who has a routine job could continue to seek fulfillment in her children. Also the drop in children will mean a drop in the employment opportunities in fields related to children. This will make it difficult for the society to find employment for all its women. In countries where the extended family makes surrogate mothers available employment is an adjunct to rep roduction and the employment-fertility relationship may be depressed or nonexistent. Suggestions for further research are then given.

Contraceptive failure in the United States.

Abstract: Data obtained from the 1970 National Fertility Study are analyzed to determine the incidence of contraceptive failure according to intent social background and method. Analyzed by life-table procedures the data indicate that 40% of contraceptive users fail to achieve their goal of either delaying (26%) or preventing (14%) pregnancy. Those women who are relatively young at the beginning of their exposure to risk are much more likely to fail than older women. Pregnancy order and educational attainment do not affect contraceptive failure rates when intent and age are held constant. Blacks are much less successful than whites in delaying and preventing pregnancy and white Catholics are less successful in delaying but just as successful in preventing pregnancy as white non-Catholics. Attempts to prevent or delay pregnancy were much more successful in 1970 than 1955 partially because of the use of oral contraceptives but also because of greater care taken no matter which method was used. Failure rates by method with intent and age constant are as follows: pill--6% IUD--12% condom--18% diaphragm--23% foam--31% rhythm--33% and douche--39%. These figures reflect the characteristics of those who use each method as well as the method itself. Methodological problems with this analysis are discussed along with their implications.

Education and the Derived Demand for Children

Abstract: A negative correlation across households between parent's education and completed fertility is one of the most widely and frequently observed relationships in the empirical literature on human fertility behavior. In this paper I utilize the emerging economic theory of household behavior, which is also employed in other papers in this Supplement, to formulate an explanation for this observed negative correlation. In particular, the paper has two objectives: (1) to consider the mechanisms through which a couple's level of education might affect their fertility and (2) to document the effects of education on one of these mechanisms that is an aspect of fertility control-the choice of a contraceptive technique. The following section briefly outlines the theoretical framework, and in Section III I discuss the mechanisms through which education's influence may operate. Throughout, the discussion is restricted to channels of influence from education to fertility; that is, the reverse causation is ruled out by assumption. The specific focus of this discussion should not be interpreted as an assertion of the exclusiveness or the primacy of education's influence on fertility. Section IV considers the fertility-control decision in greater detail. It also reports on my initial empirical work with the 1965 National Fertility Study, a nationwide sociological survey of 5,600 U.S. women undertaken by the Office of Population Research at

The Irish : emigration, marriage, and fertility

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The Expression of Female Sex-limited Characters in the Male

Abstract: DESPITE very different reproductive characteristics of males and females, autosomal genes controlling these characters are common to both sexes. (The transmission of genes for female fertility through the males is demonstrated by differences in the reproductive performance of the daughters of different sires1,2.) Furthermore, the fact that the same gonadotrophic hormones are intermediaries in the physiological control of reproductive activity in both sexes is well established3. The quantitative expression of sexual activity in males and females may therefore be genetically correlated, a possibility which is supported by the observation that breed and seasonal differences in ovine female fertility are associated with differences in male libido4.

Economic analysis of fertility in Israel: point and counterpoint.

Abstract: I view, in this paper, cross-section evidence on fertility in Israel through a very simple hypothesis based on the links among education, the cost of time of women, and the full price of children. The hypothesis is useful in explaining some aspects of behavior, but important facets of the variation in fertility remain unexplained. In recent years there have been several attempts to bring the determination of family size within the scope of the economics of household behavior (see Leibenstein 1957; Becker 1960; Mincer 1963; Easterlin 1968, 1969; Schultz 1969; and others). An economic theory of fertility starts with the postulate that hotuseholds maximize some utility function in which children and other goods appear as arguments subject to resource constraints in which the prices or the costs of production of the arguments appear. The effect of a change in any variable on the number of children depends on the extent to which it lifts the general resource constraint and induces an income effect and the extent to which it changes relative prices and induces a substitution effect. Recent developments in the theory of the household (particularly by Becker [1965] and Lancaster [1966]) provide a unified framework for handling various aspects of the fertility decision. However, in choosing

Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand

Abstract: Based on special tabulations of 1960 census data on migration within Thailand, this analysis attempts to assess the role of migration in the urbanization process and the relation between migration and fertility. The importance of migration to urban growth is evidenced by the clearcut positive relationship between the percentage of persons classified as either lifetime or 5-year migrants and the urban character of their 1960 place of residence. Yet, the evidence also points to an increasing proportion of urban growth in recent decades attributable to natural increase. The specific relation between fertility and migration varies depending on the measure of migration used: Compared to nonmigrants in their place of destination, the fertility levels of lifetime migrants are not very different; but those of 5-year migrants are considerably lower. Regardless of migration status, however, fertility level is markedly lower for those living in urban places compared to those in rural places. This suggests the important role of both migration and urbanization in affecting fertility levels in Thailand.

Contraception and Fertility: Household Production under Uncertainty

Abstract: Over the past century fertility behavior in the United Stated has undergone profound changes Measured by cohort fertility the average number of children per married woman had declined from about 5.5 children at the time of the Civil War to 2.4 children at the time of the Great Depression. It is seldom emphasized however that an even greater relative change took place in the dispersion of fertility among these women: the percentage of women with, say, seven or more children declined from 36% to under 6%. While students of population have offered reasonably convincing explanations for the decline in fertility over time, they have not succeeded in explaining the fluctuations in the trend and have made surprisingly little effort to explain the large and systematic decline in the dispersion of fertility over time. In this paper we attempt to study contraception behavior and its effects on fertility. One of the effects on which we focus considerable attention is the dispersion or variance in fertility. Our analysis is applied to cross-sectional data but it also provides an explanation for the decline in the variance in fertility over time.

Economic determinants of fertility: results from cross-sectional aggregate data.

Abstract: Census data for areal units, SMSA’s in 1960 and cities in 1940, are used to test hypotheses and estimate parameters concerning the influence of a variety of socioeconomic variables on fertility rates of ever married white and nonwhite women aged 25–29, 30–34, 35–44, and 45–49. An economic model of the demand for children is adopted as the theoretical framework. The principal findings are that the market earnings opportunities for wives have an important negative effect on the fertility rate and that male income, representing the income of husbands, has a small but positive effect on fertility. The implication of these results is that changes in economic variables, for example, improvements in the employment opportunities and wages for wives or the establishment of a children’s allowance program, may be expected to affect fertility.

Comparative analysis of recent fertility trends in East Asia.

Abstract: Analysis of fertility trends in Japan; South Korea; West Malaysia; the Philippines and Taiwan using a decomposition technique by Kitagawa (1955) revealed that countries with significant fertility declines occurring over the 60s and with high potential for lowering birth rate through postponement of marriage (West Malaysian Malays and Indians) can attribute most of the decline in crude birth rate to changes in the marital structure. Decline in marital fertility was the main mechanism in the more economically advanced countries and groups where proportions married in the younger fertile ages were already comparatively low (Korea; West Malaysian Chinese; Taiwan). The demographic transition of Japan was essentially complete by 1960. The Philippines experienced a slight decline in crude birth rate (CBR) and this was attributed to continuation of a long-term trend toward later marriage. Indonesias fertility declined only ver slightly over the 60s and there is still a high proportion of married couples at younger reproductive ages. Marital fertility is relatively low so that if CBR declines during the 70s changes in marital structure (eg. marital postponement) would probably account for most of the early decline. Thailand had a slight fertility decline during the 60s and may accelerate during the 70s. This acceleration may be attributed to decline in marital fertility as the country is already characterized by late marriage like the Philippines. A much clearer picture of fertility trends in Indonesia; the Philippines and Thailand is expected to be achieved with own-children tabulations from the 1970 censuses. (Summary in FRE)

Family planning knowledge attitudes and practice.

Abstract: Results of a knowledge attitude practice study in Comilla Bangladesh were discouraging. Less that 1/2 of the respondents could name a method of contraception and about the same proportion approved of family planning. Only 4% indicated they were currently using contraception. Such a low percentage will have minimal effect on future fertility. There is a direct relationship between the number of living children and knowledge of family planning. The women whose fertility will make the least difference in the total are the ones most knowledgeable about family planning. The IUD the most effective contraceptive was little known. Childless women have much lower proportions approving family planning. About 40% of the respondents indicated that they would not want more children. This group is a natural target of family planning educational programs. In a male-oriented country like Bangladesh focus should be on male acceptance of family planning.

Short-term fluctuations in fertility and economic activity in Israel

Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between fluctuations in fertility and in economic activity in Israel over the period 1950–1970. The paper opens with some comments on the theoretical basis for expecting procyclical behavior of fertility. This is followed by analysis of annual data of total fertility, unemployment, GNP and an index of industrial production. Total fertility tends to respond to the cyclical indicators among Jews from Europe and America, those born in Israel and those from Asian and African countries, but the response is larger among the former. Cyclical response can be discerned also in the fertility of the non-Jewish population. The performance of the alternative cyclical indicators is compared. Some examination of data on marriage suggests that the cyclical response of birth is not just a reflection of the cyclical response of marriage. In the annual data there is a tendency for.Jewish fertility to be more related to the contemporaneous cyclical indicator than the lagged indicator, while the reverse is true for the non-Jewish population. Examination of quarterly and monthly data for a shorter period corroborates this finding. Many factors are involved in determining the lag between an observed cyclical indicator and observed birth; it is being conjectured that the prevalence of abortions in the Jewish population is one contributing factor to the difference in the lag between.Jews and Arabs.

The status of women and fertility

Abstract: There is a great deal of interest in the relation between the status of women and fertility—by humanists, academics and policy-makers concerned with bringing about fertility declines. The three aspects of women's status most frequently linked to fertility are their education, employment and type of husband-wife interaction. Research to date has not given us a clear and consistent explanation of these relationships and has not confirmed causality. The effects of these three factors on fertility vary considerably across national boundaries and even within different sectors of the same society. Some of the assumptions held by both researchers and policymakers must be re-thought in the interests of more useful future research and of sounder policy.

The adolescent experience of pregnancy and abortion: a developmental analysis.

Abstract: Discernible trends in the largely inconclusive survey-oriented literature on adolescent pregnancy and abortion suggest that demographic idiosyncracies or neurotic predispositions are the significant correlates of illegitimacy An in-depth study of a homogeneous population of 13 unwed pregnant adolescents suggests a strong developmental determinant The experience of pregnancy and abortion is heavily determined by the stage-specific conflicts of early, middle, and late adolescence From an analysis of interview and projective materials, three clinically and statistically significant patterns of the experience and motivation for pregnancy emerge, one for each of the three adolescent substages It is suggested that similar developmental paradigms could be applied to a wide range of adolescent issues

Australia: knowledge, attitudes, and practice of family planning in Melbourne, 1971.

Abstract: The knowledge attitudes and practice of family planning in Melbourne were surveyed in 1971 as part of a comprehensive population study by the Australian National University. 62% of the respondents were Australian; 9% immigrated from Britain 4% from western Europe 2% from eastern Europe and 19% from southern Europe. This classification by birthplace produced marked differentials in contraceptive usage. Australias crude birth rate is 20 per 1000 and during the 1960s per capita use of oral contraceptives was reported as the highest in the world. Analysis is based on 2652 completed interviews among once-married women under 60 years of age. 86% of the overall population approved of family planning without qualification while 7% disapproved. Among those disapproving 27% labeled contraceptives as unnatural 20% said they were against religion 17% cited health risks and 4% felt contraception to be morally wrong. Asked to identify 13 methods of birth control respondents were most familiar with the pill and traditional methods (withdrawal rhythm condoms abstinence douching). Only 13% had never practiced contraception while 92% of those born since 1950 has used some contraceptive. Italian immigrants (27%) displayed the highest level of nonuse. Family planning had never been practiced by 22% of the sample with no formal education among 19% with 1-6 years of school and by 7% with 13 or more years of education. Analysis indicates that levels of usage from 1925 to 1971 have steadily increased. The proportion of fecund women users in the leading birth cohort in each period was 52% in 1935-1939 72% in 1945-1949 84% in 1955-1959 and 97% by 1970-71. Pill use related to fertility by collection of data on a month to month basis since January 1960 was found to decline with parity and marriage duration while IUD condom and diaphram use increased with parity up to 4 children. The Australian family planning picture appears similar to that reported by the 1970 U.S. National Fertility Survey. About 50% of the women under age 30 use the pill. Only 1/5 of U.S. women aged 30-44 employ the pill compared to 1/3 of their Australian counterparts. Attitudinal and technological changes in Australia by 1971 have ensured that nearly all fecund women would use contraception at some stage.

A proposed explanation of the fertility gap differentials by socio-economic status and modernity: The case of Egypt

Abstract: The present paper is part of a larger analysis of data collected in the summer of 1970 in the city of Cairo. The present analysis is based on a sub- sample of 569 households. The main objectives of the paper are: [(1)] to establish the existence of a difference between actual fertility and ideal fertility; [(2)] to show that the difference is related to some socio-economic and modernization variables; and [(3)] that differences in actual and ideal fertility in different social groups are similar and [(4)] that these differences can be explained to a substantial extent by differences in the use and the use-effectiveness of contraception. Respondents were asked how many children they wished to have themselves and also how many children they would want or consider ideal for Egyptians generally. Husbands also expressed their preferences. This is what Stycos calls a fertility belief system the sum total of consciously held beliefs and attitudes common to a group which have explicit preference to fertility behaviour. (excerpt)

Some implications of self-selection for pregnancy.

Abstract: Though women have always been able to exercise some control over the risk of an unwanted preg nancy, the availability of effective and acceptable contraceptive methods and of abortion have made voluntary control of fertility by the individual simpler and more certain than ever. The object of this paper is to examine the degree and features of self-selection for pregnancy in one community (Aberdeen) in the 'pre-pill' era and to assess the implications of an increase in fertility control for the interpretation of national and hospital statistics.