Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2002"

Changing Conversations in Organizations: A Complexity Approach to Change

Abstract: Drawing on the theoretical foundations laid out in earlier volumes of this series, this book describes an approach to organizational change and development that is informed by a complexity perspective. It clarifies the experience of being in the midst of change. Unlike many books that presume clarity of foresight or hindsight, the author focuses on the essential uncertainty of participating in evolving events as they happen and considers the creative possibilities of such participation. Most methodologies for organizational change are firmly rooted in systems thinking, as are many approaches to process consultation and facilitation. This book questions the suggestion that we can choose and design new futures for our organizations in the way we often hope. Avoiding the widely favoured use of two by two matrices, idealized schemas and simplified typologies that characterize much of the management literature on change, this book encourages the reader to live in the immediate paradoxes and complexities of organizational life, where we must act with intention into the unknowable. The author uses detailed reflective narrative to evoke and elaborate on the experience of participating in the conversational processes of human organizing. It asserts that possibilities are perpetually sustained and changed by the conversational life of organizations. This book will be valuable to consultants, managers and leaders, indeed all those who are dissatisfied with idealized models of change and are searching for ways to develop an effective change practice.

Scenarios in Public Policy

Abstract: About the Author Acknowledgements Abbreviation Introduction Part I: Scenarios in Public Policy Summary Four Scenarios for Public Education in Seattle Rotterdam and Arnhem Mission and Consequences in Bueren Scottish Enterprisea s use of Scenarios Tackling big issues in 24 hours Scenarios for Sustainable Development VISIONS scenarios on the future of Europe Foresight Futures 2001 Lessons Learned Part II: Scenarios in the Public Sector Summary US General Services Agency-- Scenarios for the Federal Workplace Consignia and Scenario Thinking Scenarios at the dti Scenario Planning goes to Rome Decision Making in the Public Sector Lessons Learned Part III: Making scenarios work Summary The Environment for Scenario Thinking The Stages of a Project Getting started Deciding the question Interviews and workshops Scenario creation Scenarios to plans Linking Scenarios into the Organisation Main points Part IV: Scenario Thinking Summary Scenarios and Strategy Strategy and Scenarios in the Public Sector Where are we now? Forecasts Evolutionary models for cultural change Comparison of Global Scenarios Where next? Conclusions References Index

Scenarios in Business

Abstract: About the Authors Acknowledgements Abbreviations Introduction Part I: Evolution in the Use of Scenarios Summary Vision 2000 A Scenario Project to re--orient ICLa s portfolio From data to scenarios Information markets Use in corporate planning Using scenarios in teams Adopting existing scenarios Lessons Learned Part II: Scenario Thinking Summary Strategy and Scenarios. Where are we now? Forecasts Pitfalls and Pratfalls Evolutionary models for cultural change Where next? Conclusions Part III: Making scenarios work Summary The Environment for Scenario Thinking The Stages of a Project Getting started Deciding the question Interviews and workshops Scenario creation Scenarios to plans Linking Scenarios into the Organisation Main points Part IV: Case Studies Summary A Study in Turkey Preparing for a New Environment of Energy of Statoil New Car Distribution of the Future Reframing Industry Boundaries for Structural Advantage -- the role of Scenario Planning Software for Collaborative Working Foresight into Insight Healthcare 2010 Scenarios: Guiding a Vision for Predictive Medicine A Trading Group Lessons Learned and Conclusions References Index

Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education

Abstract: Introduction by Jim Dator Overviews and Histories Making People Responsible by Wendell Bell A Sociologist's Experience by Eleonora Barbieri Masini The Future as a Sociocultural Problem by Reed D Riner Past and Future by W Warren Wager Uncertainty and Creativity by Immanuel Wallerstein Futures Studies as a Discipline by Richard A Slaughter Explaining and Defining Pedagogy, Culture, and Futures Studies by Sohail Inayatullah Explaining the Past and Predicting the Future by Peter T Manicas Social Change and Futures Practice by Peter Bishop Permanent Development of Futures Research Methodology by Erzebet Novaky The Transformation of Futures Research in Hungary by Eva Hideg Politics + Science = Futures Studies? by Mika Mannermaa Teaching Futures Studies at the University Level by Jan Huston Future-Oriented Complexity and Adaptive Studies by Kaoru Yamaguchi Courses and Methods Futures Studies in Pakistan: The PFI by Ikram Azam A Generation of Futures Studies in Taiwan by Kuo-Hua Chen Teaching Futures-Seeking Policy in Finland by Markku Sotarauta A Journey to the Future in the UK by Graham H May Global Issues and Futures for Planners by Sam Cole Planet Eaters or Star Makers? by Christopher Burr Jones The Challenge of Teaching Futures Studies by Jordi Serra del Pino Giving Images a Chance by Anita Rubin Consulting and Teaching Through the World Wide Web by Paul Wildman Postmodern Education: A Futures Perspective by David Hicks Visionary Futures by Oliver W Markley Concerns and Issues Producing a Better World by Ian Lowe Co-Creating a Futures Studies Course with Unionists by Arthur Shostak Educating the Economic Strategist by Ernest Sternberg Prophets of a High-Tech Age by William E Halal Index

From forecasting and scenarios to social construction: changing methodological paradigms in futures studies

Abstract: This paper looks at shifts that have occurred in underlying methodological paradigms in futures studies (FS) over the last several decades. It suggests a progression from forecasting to scenarios to social construction and seeks to account for the rise of the latter.

Youth futures : comparative research and transformative visions

Abstract: Preface: Youth Futures: The Terrain by Jennifer Gidley and Sohail Inayatullah Mapping Youth Futures Global Youth Culture: A Transdisciplinary Perspective by Jennifer Gidley Youth Dissent: Multiple Perspectives on Youth Futures by Sohail Inayatullah Future Visions, Social Realities, and Personal Lives: Young People and Their Personal Well-Being by Richard Eckersley Partnership Education for the 21st Century by Riane Eisler Cultural Mapping and Our Children's Futures: Decolonizing Ways of Learning and Research by Francis Hutchinson From Youth Futures to Futures for All: Reclaiming the Human Story by Marcus Bussey Youth Essay 1: Optimistic Visions from Australia by Raina Hunter Comparative Research from Around the Globe Japanese Youth: Rewriting Futures in the "No Taboos" Post-Bubble Millennium by David Wright Reflections upon the Late-Modern Transition as Seen in the Images of the Future Held by Young Finns by Anita Rubin Imagining the Future: Youth in Singapore by Alfred Oehlers The Future Orientation of Hungarian Youth in the Years of the Transformation by Eva Hideg and Erzsebet Novaky Citizens of the New Century: Perspectives from the UK by Cathie Holden Longing for Belonging: Youth Culture in Norway by Paul Otto Brunstad Holistic Education and Visions of Rehumanized Futures by Jennifer Gidley Youth Essay 2: Voice of the Future from Pakistan by Bilal Aslam Case Studies: Teaching Futures in Educationl Settings From Rhetoric to Reality: The Emergence of Futures into the Educational Mainstream by Richard Slaughter Re-Imagining your Neighborhood--A Model of Futures Education by Carmen Stewart Learning with an Active Voice: Children and Youth Creating Preferred Futures by Cole Jackson, Sandra Burchsted, and Seth Itzkan I Don't Care About the Future (if I Can't Influence it) by Sabina Head Rural Visions of the Future: Futures in a Social Science Class by Shane Hart Youth, Scenarios, and Metaphors of the Future by Sohail Inayatullah Youth Essay 3: Shared Futures from the Philippines by Michael Guanco Concluding Reflections by Sohail Inayatullah and Jennifer Gidley Selected Bibliography Index

Embedded foresight in RTD programs

Abstract: In recent years, several countries have carried out large-scale technology foresight exercises. While these have been extensively discussed in the literature, less attention has been given to how foresight objectives are served through consultative processes which are not necessarily designated as "foresight" but nevertheless seek to provide direction to publicly supported research and technology development (RTD) efforts. Here, we address this question by examining Finnish RTD programmes in electronics and telecommunications where foresight processes have been enacted to build up capabilities for strategic flexibility and, more specifically, for the ability to change the direction of RTD efforts during the programme. We also argue that these processes may be crucial in conditions of rapid technological change.

Futures studies as applied knowledge

Abstract: At the present time, futures studies is to modern academia and societal decision making what Science was to academia and societal decision making in the late Middle Ages Because of this, I am no more likely to get most successful academicians, politicians, and business persons to take futures studies seriously (and thus to help them and their organizations to think and act more helpfully about the future), than Copernicus was in getting the powers that were in his time to recognize that the earth isn’t the center of the universe Because futures studies is not like other established fields in academia, it is constantly being misunderstood and misused

A foresight framework for understanding the future of mobile commerce

Abstract: The advent of the 3G world of mobile commerce has suffered from the wait‐and‐see mode over the last years. Existing barriers pose a challenge to all actors in the mobile commerce industry (MCI). Learning from the future and discovering a route to a desired future are keys to successful mobile commerce business. In this paper we argue that it is very important that all actors in the MCI use an industry foresight approach in order to discover a successful route to future markets. We present a framework for creating industry foresights and for understanding the future of mobile commerce. We focus on the mobile commerce industry as a whole and introduce two broad variables; (1) adoption and diffusion of mobile commerce products and services; and (2) the macro‐economic development trend. Based on these variables we build four foresight scenarios: Rapid‐Up, Rapid‐Down, Slow‐Down and Slow‐Up. On the basis of these four different scenarios we suggest some features of promising mobile commerce products and services. We are using information‐gathering agents in order to collect information for our analysis. The foresight framework will help all actors understand the future for m‐commerce.