Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 1974"
TL;DR: The conventional interacting group is compared with nominal and delphi groups in terms of the quantity of ideas generated and perceived satisfaction of participants as mentioned in this paper, where the nominal group was compared with the delphi group.
Abstract: The conventional interacting group is compared with nominal and delphi groups in terms of the quantity of ideas generated and perceived satisfaction of participants. On an applied fact-finding prob...
715 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1974
TL;DR: This book discusses fundamental considerations in modeling the human operator in a control system, as well as information processing and information-processing models, andOptimal-control models using state-variable concepts.
Abstract: Contents: Introduction Information processing and information-processing models Probability estimation Bayes's rule and the revision of probabilities Information measurement and channels Human performance in information-transmission tasks Continuous information Manual control and manual-control models Fundamental considerations in modeling the human operator in a control system Identification and models in the time domain Quasi-linear models and identification in the frequency domain Optimal-control models using state-variable concepts Sensory modalities and displays Neuromuscular characteristics and control-handle console design Intermittent and nonlinear characteristics Human-operator adaptation Decision making and utility Decisions under risk Signal detection Dynamic decision making Formal games New frontiers
376 citations
TL;DR: The experiment, involving twenty two graduate business administration students devoting an entire week end to the decision making activity in a simulated, computer based environment, generated results showing significantly different performance according to the form in which information was presented.
Abstract: This paper reports the results of an experimental study of the relationship between the effectiveness of aggregate production planning decisions and the form of the information system used to support the decision making. The experiment, involving twenty two graduate business administration students devoting an entire week end to the decision making activity in a simulated, computer based environment, generated results showing significantly different performance according to the form in which information was presented. Decision makers given data summarized through the use of simple descriptive statistics 1 made higher quality decisions than those receiving the same data in standard formats, 2 had less confidence in the quality of their decisions, and 3 took longer to make their decisions.
199 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the individual and joint contributions to decision processes of psychological and demographic attributes of decision-makers were empirically investigated for a sample of 79 industrial managers, and performance in decision-making was determined by the Personnel Decision Simulation, a simulated managerial decision problem which permits observation and measurement, in a standardized situation, of eight decision processes.
72 citations
TL;DR: The Ohio Board of Nursing has developed this decisionmaking model to facilitate the nurse's decision-making within the law regulating the practice of nursing, chapter 4723 of the Ohio Revised Code (ORC).
Abstract: The licensed nurse is legally responsible and accountable for knowing the legally defined scope of nursing practice. The Ohio Board of Nursing has developed this decisionmaking model to facilitate the nurse’s decision-making within the law regulating the practice of nursing, chapter 4723 of the Ohio Revised Code (ORC), also know as the Nurse Practice Act, and the rules promulgated from the law, Chapter 4723 of the Ohio Administrative Code (OAC). The law and rules may be accessed through the Board’s website at nursing.ohio.gov
26 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis of police decision making is presented using the decision board technique developed by Leslie Wilkins, which assumes that decision making can be measured by observing a subject's response to stimuli presented in the form of pieces of information.
13 citations
12 citations
Journal Article•
12 citations
Journal Article•
9 citations
01 Oct 1974
TL;DR: A model of decision style is presented which uses three dimensions to classify eight types of decision styles and its relationship to the concept of adaptive decision aiding is presented.
Abstract: The concept of decision style, while rooted in cognitive and personality theory, finds application in computer system design as a basis for decision aiding. As used in an information system context, decision style may be defined as the characteristic and self consistent way an individual uses information in the decision making process. A model of decision style is presented which uses three dimensions to classify eight types of decision styles. Each dimension of decision style corresponds to variability observed in three aspects of decision making. A methodology for the assessment of decision style, and its relationship to the concept of adaptive decision aiding is presented. The concept of decision support as complex of decision aids designed with reference to a decision situation provides the context for the discussion of adaptive aiding.
TL;DR: This paper considers problems from the point of view of the information system designer and makes recommendations about design and implementation.
Abstract: The role of an information system is to support managerial decision processes. Some of these processes can be completely specified in advance and, as long as the specification remains acceptable to management, resolution can be done automatically, within the framework of the information system. However, in other cases, managers are involved in all stages of the decision process, which cannot be completely specified in advance. The task of the information system in these cases is to provide information to the managers engaged in making the decisions. This paper considers these problems from the point of view of the information system designer and makes recommendations about design and implementation.
TL;DR: In this article, standard replacement models are extended to provide rules for decision makers in different contexts, and applied to provide insights into the design and use of adaptive environmental systems, which are central to the effective use of such an environment and forming the basis for its design.
Abstract: The value of an adaptive environment is determined by the decision rules used to modify it. These rules are central to the effective use of such an environment, as well as forming the basis for its design. In this paper, standard replacement models are extended to provide rules for decision makers in different contexts, and applied to provide insights into the design and use of adaptive environmental systems.
15 Sep 1974
TL;DR: Evaluating the use of three different forms of risk analysis decision aids, one deterministic and two probabilistic versions, in a warehouse expansion decision context and several decision-maker characteristics-experience, background, attitude towards quantitative data, attitude toward computer potential in management, and risk preference-are examined.
Abstract: : This report evaluates the use of three different forms of risk analysis decision aids, one deterministic and two probabilistic versions, in a warehouse expansion decision context. In addition, several decision-maker characteristics-experience, background, attitude toward quantitative data, attitude toward computer potential in management, and risk preference-are examined in conjunction with the three decision aids. The impact of these factors is measured in terms of (1) decision made, (2) supporting documentation for the decision made, and (3) evaluation of the decision aid.
24 May 1974
TL;DR: In this article, a case study of the recent Energy crisis and decision theory analysis is investigated as an appropriate methodology for developing optimum outcomes for various alternatives in national and international policy negotiations.
Abstract: : A report is presented concerning research for improving human judgments of probabilities and utilities for decision making, and the application of decision theory to problems in resource allocation and policy analysis. Decision theoretic concepts are developed and procedures established for encoding uncertainties as probabilities and incorporating attitudes toward risk into utilities. An approach is developed for translating national level decision making information needs for strategic planning into requirements which have the likelihood of being satisfied under varying options of resource allocation. A methodology is developed for intelligence analyst use of credible interval assessments without the use of sophisticated computer programs. Using as a case study the recent Energy crisis, decision theory analysis is investigated as an appropriate methodology for developing optimum outcomes for various alternatives in national and international policy negotiations. The substance of recent activities for decision analysis application to problems of current and scientific intelligence is reported. Appendix I reports on three Decision Theory Workshops which were conducted in November 1973.
TL;DR: In this paper, the information for decision-making in outdoor education is presented, with a focus on the use of outdoor education for health and physical education in public schools, with the goal of improving the health of students.
Abstract: (1974). Information for Decision Making in Outdoor Education. Journal of Health, Physical Education, Recreation: Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 57-58.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared the generation of solutions by groups using the brain-storming technique as it has been operationalized in the past to solutions generated by groups employing a revision of this technique.
Abstract: The study compares the generation of solutions by groups using the brain‐storming technique as it has been operationalized in the past to solutions generated by groups employing a revision of this technique. The groups are compared in terms of quality of solutions generated. The findings indicate that solutions generated by groups employing the revised technique were ranked superior to those generated by groups using traditional brainstorming procedures.
01 Jan 1974
TL;DR: In other words, every decision has its own unique environment, and it is only through an accurate and thorough understanding of that environment that a manager can make the best possible choice from amongst those which are available.
Abstract: It almost goes without saying that the purpose of any management education must be to help managers reach the best possible decisions subject to the many constraints upon their actions. Such constraints encompass typically the time period within which the decision must be made, the nature of the available information, which is unlikely to be exactly what is needed, and the resources available for use, whether in the form of human or physical capital. In other words every decision has its own unique environment, and it is only through an accurate and thorough understanding of that environment that a manager can make the best possible choice from amongst those which are available. The environment of most decisions frequently lies within the bounds of the firm’s own activities, e.g. the capacity of existing machinery is a purely internal constraint affecting a decision, but decisions which affect the objectives of the firm as a whole can only take place within a much wider environment such as the U.K. economy, or even the world economy. Thus a decision concerning the construction of a new factory requires an analysis of demand conditions in whatever parts of the world happen to constitute the firm’s markets and also an analysis of factors likely to affect sources of supply of raw materials.