Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 1977"

Research in Management Information Systems: The Minnesota Experiments

Abstract: The use of computer based information-decision systems to support decision making in organizations has increased significantly in the last decade. Very little effort has been devoted, however, to determine what relationships exist between the structure of information presented for decision making and the ensuing effectiveness of the decision. This article summarizes a series of experiments. The Minnesota Experiments, which were conducted to examine the significance of various information system characteristics on decision activity. Several research programs administered in the period 1970--1975 are discussed in this paper. By varying the manner in which information was provided to participants in each experiment, the impact of various information system characteristics and individual differences on decision effectiveness was investigated. Analysis of the results shows that, in many cases, the decisions/decision-making process of the participants was affected by the information system structure and/or attributes of individual decision makers. The results suggest guidelines for the designers of information systems and fruitful avenues for continued research.

An experimental investigation of some MIS design variables

Abstract: An experiment was conducted to relate characteristics of an information system and a decision maker to the resulting decision making performance in a simulated inventory/production environment. One of the six independent variables which were analyzed, four (form of presentation, available of decision aids, availability of exception reporting, amount of information provided) were related to information system characteristics, the other two (decision making style, knowledge of functional area) described decision maker characteristics. The dependent variables, or the decision making quality variables, analyzed were cost performance, time performance, and the number of reports requested for decision making. The experimental setting, findings, and the number of reports requested for decision making. The experimental setting, findings, and the implication of the findings for information system design are discussed.

A Contextual Model of Strategic Decision Making in Organizations.

Abstract: In a recent study, Mintzberg, Raisinghani, and Theoret (1976) found that the process by which strategic decisions are made in organizations has an underlying structure. However, it is our belief th...

Institutional and ad hoc DSS and their effective use

Abstract: The term decision support system (DSS) applies to the subset of management information systems that truly support decision-making processes. This term excludes structured decision systems that essentially present the appropriate decisions for management approval, as is the case in many inventory-control or billing systems. This paper differentiates between two classes of decision support systems: institutional DSS, which deal with decisions of a recurring nature, and ad hoc DSS, which deal with specific problems that are usually not anticipated or recurring. An understanding of these two classes of decision support systems facilitates making explicit both their common and different computational needs. This analysis has provided a basis for the development of computational facilities to support effectively their common needs. This paper briefly describes some of those computational facilities and illustrates their use in systems (institutional and ad hoc) which are being effectively used to support regional energy decisions in New England.

Accounting information and employee decision making

Abstract: This paper argues that policies or recommendations regarding the provision of information for employee decision making can only be fruitfully developed within the framework of models of employee decision making. Descriptive model building, incorporating a model of the decision maker, his objectives, and the environment in which he operates, is essential for the provision of information to help employees improve their welfare. The paper develops alternative models and concludes by presenting, as a guide to future research, some tentative evidence about the decision making of one group of employee representatives in plant level negotiation in U.K.

A DSS for diagnosis and therapy

Abstract: This paper reviews an approach to the design and construction of a decision support system intended to function as a consultant on the question of diagnosis and therapy selection. It describes the system in terms of the nature of the decision problem involved, discusses factors which make the problem difficult and considers the design goals that have led to the construction of a system with several novel capabilities. Many of those capabilities result from representing domain-specific knowledge in the system in terms of numerous judgmental decision rules, and we examine a number of such rules. Examples of the system in operation are given to illustrate many of these issues, and performance is compared with previous approaches to automated medical decision making. Finally, we consider the domain independence and generality of the methodology and consider the potential impact the system may have as a tool for decision support.

Adaptive Utility Assessment in Dynamic Decision Processes: An Experimental Evaluation of Decision Aiding

Abstract: One central goal of decision theory is to provide a rational basis for decisionmaking. The ADDAM (Adaptive Dynamic Decision Aiding Methodology) system is designed to aid the decisionmaker (DM) in performing dynamic decision tasks. The ADDAM system provides real-time dynamic assessments of multiple utilities as the DM performs a dynamic decision task. ADDAM continuously tracks the DM's decision responses and uses adaptive pattern classification techniques to learn his utilities for their outcomes. These utilities are then used to provide decision aiding in the form of maximum expected utility decision recommendations. An experimental study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the decision aiding system in a realistic decision task. Aided subjects showed significantly less deviation from their own maximum expected utility and substantially less within group-variance than did unaided subjects. Aided subjects also had a greater decision output. The adaptive utility estimates upon which the aiding was based converged rapidly to stable values. The ADDAM system was found to provide an appropriate, systematic, and testable approach to decision aiding. ADDAM aids the operator by organizing his own in-context decision behavior into a systematic mathematical framework. Such aiding is applicable to a wide variety of systems in which deficiencies of human decisionmakers may be overcome by techniques to augment human memory and logic processes.

A Decision Simulation Model for Health Services Management

Abstract: This model has been designed to assist decision making in the Health Services by predicting the effects on a local population of proposed policy decisions. Policy decisions are considered to:

The Development of a Decision Making Framework For Logistics Management

Abstract: An Aid to Decision Making Following on from the earlier article in the previous issue of this Journal, when the systems approach to logistics decision making was introduced, this second and final part describes the development of a set of heuristic rules. Using these as a formalised aid to everyday decision making by manufacturing companies, the total logistics analysis may be simplified. The development and testing of these decision rules were carried out as part of a programme of research work amongst a number of pharmaceutical manufacturing companies.

Decision Making and Cognition: Comments

Abstract: In a sense, papers like Gordon Pitz’ bring decision theory back to psychology. Decision theory did not emerge from psychology directly. Instead, psychology came onto the scene in a way which is rather typical for psychology. You do not need psychology as long as everything runs all right. Thus, individual differences in reaction times were not discovered until an astronomer fired his assistant because he reported different times for the passing of a star in the telescope. Similarly, research on visual perception received an important thrust from the discovery of optical illusions; and large parts of developmental psychology were stimulated by the failure of educational programs. Additionally the psychology of thought was partly based on the discovery that human thinking does not always follow the rules of formal logic. Psychology is not the science of pathologic behavior; but somehow we seem to need a science of behavior mainly when we feel that some behavior does not occur as expected. Decision making originally emerged from normative economics. Here too, psychologists became interested in decision making when people did not behave as expected, i. e. as prescribed by the normative laws. As a special field of the psychology of cognition, decision making can be viewed as a kind of problem solving process. When choosing among several alternatives or options available, the decision maker tries to find a correct solution to a problem. Problem solving situations may typically be characterized as having three states.