Showing papers on "Tournament published in 2023"

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Abstract: How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Abstract: How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

The Allocation of Additional Slots for the FIFA World Cup

Abstract: How to select participants for a sports tournament when they are divided into different sets, and one should find a fair number of slots for each set? We propose to address this question by resorting to standard tools from the fair allocation literature. To frame our discussion, we focus on the increase in the number of participating teams in the FIFA World Cup. We explore the allocation of additional slots among continental confederations. We consider 10 different allocations. Based on our analysis, we can argue that the European soccer confederation (UEFA) has a solid basis to claim for additional slots.

Indoor Air Quality and Strategic Decision Making

Abstract: Decision making on the job is becoming increasingly important in the labor market, in which there is an unprecedented rise in demand for workers with problem-solving and critical-thinking skills. This paper investigates how indoor air quality affects the quality of strategic decision making based on data from official chess tournaments. Our main analysis relies on a unique data set linking the readings of air-quality monitors inside the tournament room to the quality of 30,000 moves, each of them objectively evaluated by a powerful artificial intelligence–based chess engine. The results show that poor indoor air quality hampers players’ decision making. We find that an increase in the indoor concentration of fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]) by 10 [Formula: see text] (corresponding to 75% of a standard deviation in our sample) increases a player’s probability of making an erroneous move by 26.3%. The decomposition of the effects by different stages of the game shows that time pressure amplifies the damage of poor air quality to the players’ decisions. We implement a number of robustness checks and conduct a replication exercise with analogous move-quality data from games in the top national league showing the strength of our results. The results highlight the costs of poor air quality for highly skilled professionals faced with strategic decisions under time pressure. This paper was accepted by Prof. Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Graduate School of Business and Economics at Maastricht University as well as the Institute of Labor Economics Bonn. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4643 .

Tight Bounds on 3-Team Manipulations in Randomized Death Match

Abstract: Consider a round-robin tournament on n teams, where a winner must be (possibly randomly) selected as a function of the results from the $$\left( {\begin{array}{c}n\\ 2\end{array}}\right) $$ pairwise matches. A tournament rule is said to be k-SNM- $$\alpha $$ if no set of k teams can ever manipulate the $$\left( {\begin{array}{c}k\\ 2\end{array}}\right) $$ pairwise matches between them to improve the joint probability that one of these k teams wins by more than $$\alpha $$ . Prior work identifies multiple simple tournament rules that are 2-SNM-1/3 (Randomized Single Elimination Bracket [17], Randomized King of the Hill [18], Randomized Death Match [6]), which is optimal for $$k=2$$ among all Condorcet-consistent rules (that is, rules that select an undefeated team with probability 1). Our main result establishes that Randomized Death Match is 3-SNM-(31/60), which is tight (for Randomized Death Match). This is the first tight analysis of any Condorcet-consistent tournament rule and at least three manipulating teams. Our proof approach is novel in this domain: we explicitly find the most-manipulable tournament, and directly show that no other tournament can be more manipulable. In addition to our main result, we establish that Randomized Death Match disincentivizes Sybil attacks (where a team enters multiple copies of themselves into the tournament, and arbitrarily manipulates the outcomes of matches between their copies). Specifically, for any tournament, and any team u that is not a Condorcet winner, the probability that u or one of its Sybils wins in Randomized Death Match approaches 0 as the number of Sybils approaches $$\infty $$ .

A Multiday Professional Padel Tournament Impairs Sleep, Mental Toughness, and Reaction Time: A World Padel Tour Field Study.

Abstract: This study aimed to assess, for the first time, how self-reported sleep, mental toughness, and reaction time are impacted by a professional padel tournament. In addition, we evaluated whether sex, age, and/or ranking play a role in this possible effect of a tournament on these variables. Twenty-three professional players (15 men, Mage = 24 ± 6 years; eight women, Mage = 21 ± 5 years) were evaluated on two occasions: (a) baseline, in a noncompetitive week and (b) postmeasure, the morning after an individual was eliminated from the tournament. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Mental Toughness Questionnaire, and the psychomotor vigilance task were used to evaluate the dependent variables. Wilcoxon tests or paired samples t tests were employed to assess the effect of participating in the tournament. To test correlations between variables, Pearson correlation coefficients (quantitative variables) or chi-square distributions (qualitative variables) were employed. Results showed that self-reported sleep (p < .01), mental toughness (p = .01), and reaction time (p = .04) were significantly impaired by the tournament. Exploring moderating variables, results showed that mental toughness did not correlate with sleep impairments (p > .05). In contrast, a nearly significant correlation between sleep impairments and higher reaction times was found (p = .066). No significant effects of age, sex, and ranking were observed. In conclusion, participating in a padel competition impairs the self-reported sleep, mental toughness, and reaction time of professional padel players. A trend toward a significant correlation between the competition-related impairment in sleep and reaction time was observed, whereas age, ranking, and sex were not found to be moderators of any of these impairments.

The use of teams games tournament learning to increase students' learning outcomes in classification of living things

Abstract: This research aims to improve student learning outcomes through the use of teams games tournament (TGT) learning. This classroom action research was carried out in class VII B of SMP Negeri 10 Manokwari. The research subjects were 18 students. The cycle was carried out as much as and and a test to measure student learning outcomes. The results of the study show that the use of TGT learning can improve student learning outcomes. It is proven by the percentage of the average classical completeness score of students' learning outcomes in the first cycle of 77.8% and increased in the second cycle to 88.8%. The findings indicate that student learning outcomes has met the 75% classical standard. Student activity has also increased. Based on the results of the research that has been done, it can be concluded that the application of TGT can improve student learning outcomes.

The Impact of Organizer Market Structure on Participant Entry Behavior in a Multi-Tournament Environment

Abstract: A multi-tournament environment is analyzed, focusing on the impact of organizer market structure on agent entry behavior. Two high ability agents first decide which tournament to enter (with fields then filled by low ability agents). If the marginal benefit of high ability agents in an event is weakly increasing, a monopsonist organizer sets prizes so that the high ability agents enter the same event. If this marginal benefit is diminishing, a monopsonist organizer will either: always set prizes for which the high ability agents enter different events; or set prizes for which the high ability agents enter different events if and only if the difference in ability between the high ability and low ability agents is sufficiently small. Sequentially competing organizers set prizes for which both high ability agents enter the same event if and only if the marginal benefit of having two high ability agents in one event is relatively large. For competing organizers there may be either a first or second mover advantage. Finally, Social Welfare may be higher or lower with competing organizers, implying greater organizer competition does not necessarily increase Social Welfare. Parallels are noted throughout to the labor market for professional golfers both over years when the PGA TOUR was essentially a monopsonist and more recently when LIV Golf emerged as a competitor.

Counting tournament score sequences

Abstract: The score sequence of a tournament is the sequence of the out-degrees of its vertices arranged in nondecreasing order. The problem of counting score sequences of a tournament with n n vertices is more than 100 years old [Quart. J. Math. 49 (1920), pp. 1–36]. In 2013 Hanna conjectured a surprising and elegant recursion for these numbers. We settle this conjecture in the affirmative by showing that it is a corollary to our main theorem, which is a factorization of the generating function for score sequences with a distinguished index. We also derive a closed formula and a quadratic time algorithm for counting score sequences.

Phylourny: efficiently calculating elimination tournament win probabilities via phylogenetic methods

Abstract: The prediction of knockout tournaments represents an area of large public interest and active academic as well as industrial research. Here, we show how one can leverage the computational analogies between calculating the phylogenetic likelihood score used in the area of molecular evolution to efficiently calculate, instead of approximate via simulations, the exact per-team tournament win probabilities, given a pairwise win probability matrix between all teams. We implement and make available our method as open-source code and show that it is two orders of magnitude faster than simulations and two or more orders of magnitude faster than calculating the exact per-team win probabilities naïvely, without taking into account the substantial computational savings induced by the tournament tree structure. Furthermore, we showcase novel prediction approaches that now become feasible due to this order of magnitude improvement in calculating tournament win probabilities. We demonstrate how to quantify prediction uncertainty by calculating 100,000 distinct tournament win probabilities for a tournament with 16 teams under slight variations of a reasonable pairwise win probability matrix within one minute on a standard laptop. We also conduct an analogous analysis for a tournament with 64 teams.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11222-023-10246-y.

The Swiss Gambit

Abstract: In each round of a Swiss-system tournament, players of similar score are paired against each other. An intentional early loss therefore might lead to weaker opponents in later rounds and thus to a better final tournament result - a phenomenon known as the Swiss Gambit. To the best of our knowledge it is an open question whether this strategy can actually work. This paper provides answers based on an empirical agent-based analysis for the most prominent application area of the Swiss-system format, namely chess tournaments. We simulate realistic tournaments by employing the official FIDE pairing system for computing the player pairings in each round. We show that even though gambits are widely possible in Swiss-system chess tournaments, profiting from them requires a high degree of predictability of match results. Moreover, even if a Swiss Gambit succeeds, the obtained improvement in the final ranking is limited. Our experiments prove that counting on a Swiss Gambit is indeed a lot more of a risky gambit than a reliable strategy to improve the final rank.

On heroes in digraphs with forbidden induced forests

Abstract: We continue a line of research which studies which hereditary families of digraphs have bounded dichromatic number. For a class of digraphs $\mathcal{C}$, a hero in $\mathcal{C}$ is any digraph $H$ such that $H$-free digraphs in $\mathcal{C}$ have bounded dichromatic number. We show that if $F$ is an oriented star of degree at least five, the only heroes for the class of $F$-free digraphs are transitive tournaments. For oriented stars $F$ of degree exactly four, we show the only heroes in $F$-free digraphs are transitive tournaments, or possibly special joins of transitive tournaments. Aboulker et al. characterized the set of heroes of $\{H, K_{1} + \vec{P_{2}}\}$-free digraphs almost completely, and we show the same characterization for the class of $\{H, rK_{1} + \vec{P_{3}}\}$-free digraphs. Lastly, we show that if we forbid two "valid" orientations of brooms, then every transitive tournament is a hero for this class of digraphs.

Penerapan Model Pembelajaran Kooperatif TGT (Teams Game Turnamens) untuk Meningkatkan Motivasi dan Prestasi Belajar Siswa MAN 2 Pesisir Selatan

Abstract: This study aims to determine the increase in learning motivation and student learning outcomes of MAN 2 Pesisir Selatan applying the TGT (Teams Game Tournament) cooperative learning model. The approach used in the research here is a qualitative approach and the type of research is Classroom Action Research (PTK). PTK is an examination of learning activities in the form of an action, which is deliberately raised and occurs in a class together (Arikunto, 2006:3). The research will be carried out in 2 cycles, each consisting of 4 stages. The research design used consisted of 4 components, namely planning, action, observation and reflection. The research subjects were students of class XI IA3 at MAN 2 Pesisir Selatan in the odd semester of 2018/2019, a total of 36 students. The results of the study show that first, the application of the TGT (Teams Game Tournaments) cooperative learning model can increase student motivation in MAN 2 Pesisir Selatan. Second, the application of the TGT (Teams Game Tournaments) cooperative learning model can improve student achievement at MAN 2 Pesisir Selatan.

Effort and risk-taking in tournaments with superstars – evidence for teams

Abstract: Competition is often observed between heterogenous teams. Heterogeneity in ability is critical for the effectiveness of different tournament designs. I investigate how the presence of a dominant competitor or superstar does affect the decisions of other competitors in team contests. In particular, I use novel data from top-level professional basketball to investigate the consequences of superstar presence on effort and risk-taking of teams in rank-order contests. To identify the effect, I exploit exogenous variation in superstar dominance, induced by an institutional reform. My results demonstrate that the effect of competing with a superstar on effort does depend on the level of superstar dominance and the number of dominant teams in the contest. For tournaments with a single and clearly dominant superstar team, I find a sizable and significant negative effect of superstar presence on effort of other competing teams. Reduced dominance by the superstar, however, is found to result in a positive peer effect. I also present results for a robust association between competing with a superstar and risk-taking, indicating that a dominant superstar decreases risk-taking. Presence of a weak superstar, however, is estimated to increase risk-taking among other competitors.

Keep it simple: A Novel Algorithmic Based Chess Scoresheet Writing using Computer Vision

Abstract: Chess players use chess scoresheet to record the moves they and their opponent make during a game. Maintaining a scoresheet during the game in few time formats is mandatory. It serves several purposes for the players and the organization hosting the tournament. It assists players in learning from their mistakes and helps organizations resolve disputes between players. In a nutshell, the scoresheet is a proof. Handwritten score sheets have numerous drawbacks, necessitating the use of technology to automate them. Various researchers have worked on it, but it is done with either piece recognition or board recognition using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) algorithms. It frequently necessitates a large amount of computational power, generates memory overhead, and has numerous drawbacks. It only works for digital chess images (online chess games) or physical chess board images (offline chess games), not both. This paper proposes a novel algorithmic-based module called Keep it Simple (KIS). This KIS writes the scoresheet using the input binary matrix obtained from the digital image of the chess board. The proposed algorithm requires less computational power and eliminates all the bottlenecks of existing methods. Moreover, it works for all chessboard images, regardless of color, size, board type, or game mode (online or offline).

Application of team game tournament (tgt) as a cooperative learning model to increase students’ learning motivation of class x otkp in business economics learning subjects at smk telkom pekanbaru

Abstract: This paper is indicated by Business Economics students’ low learning motivation at class X OTKP of SMK Telkom Pekanbaru. This paper analyzes the differences in students’ learning motivation through the application of Team Game Tournament (TGT) as a cooperative learning model. This paper uses experimental research with the pre-experimental or quasi-experimental with the One-group pretest and posttest research design. The research was conducted at Telkom Vocational School Pekanbaru for students at class X of Office Administration who took Business Economics as an Experiment class. Data were collected through questionnaires and observation sheets. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics through the N-gain test and paired sample t-test. The results indicate that the average student’s learning motivation was higher than the average student’s learning motivation before the application of the Team Game Tournament (TGT) learning model. It is proven from the results of the N-Gain test and Paired Sample T-Test that there are significant differences in students’ learning motivation after and before applying the model. Thus, one of the methods that can be applied by the teacher to increase students’ learning motivation is to apply the Team Game Tournament (TGT) cooperative learning model.

The effect of flipped classroom based on team games tournament on mathematics problem-solving ability

Abstract: The study aimed to determine the effect of flipped classroom modified Teams Games Tournament (TGT) on mathematics problem-solving skills in terms of self-regulated learning in students. This research is a type of quantitative research with the quasi-experimental method. The population in this study came from Krunjo State Elementary School, Tangerang Regency. The research sample came from two classes, namely class III A (experimental class) and class III B (control class), totaling 46 students. The sampling technique was cluster sampling. Data analysis is quantitative statistical analysis with the Two Way Anova test with the help of the JAMOVI application. The results of this study showed: 1) there is an effect of flipped classroom learning modified Team Games Tournament (TGT) on students' math problem-solving can be seen from the results of Two Way Anova p-value < α, namely the value of 0. 006 < 0.05; 2) There is a significant interaction between students who learn with flipped classroom modified Team Games Tournament (TGT) on students' mathematical problem-solving ability can be seen from the p-value < α, namely the value of 0.045 < 0.05. 3) There is a difference between students who learn with flipped classroom modified Team Games Tournament (TGT) in terms of high self-regulated learning can be seen from the value of p- tukey> α or 0. 023 < 0.05.

Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for the shift to an Elo-based formula

Abstract: One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.

Coaching athletes with an intellectual disability at a national championship tournament

Abstract: Coaching at a national championship tournament is different to coaching across a competitive season. The team and coaches are away from their regular environment and their normal support mechanisms are distant. While much is known about stressors for coaches in high-performance sport, the current study explored how these were manifested during the intensity of a championship tournament and the coping strategies employed by one coach of a selected, intellectually disabled basketball team. This social phenomenological analysis identified four primary stressors, creating unity and development of trust, management of parents, management of inexperienced coaching/support staff, and crisis management of a critical incident. Coping strategies employed during the tournament included planning, time alone for stress-recovery management and working with a qualified expert to manage a critical incident. The temporariness of the tournament brings unique stressors for the coach and a need to manage these quickly and efficiently, especially for athletes with an intellectual disability. The coach identified that it is unlike any other type of competition, as there is absolute consumption on the tournament and a need to create a rhythm to function effectively. The need for all team members to understand their role and responsibility suggests that a collaborative approach to leadership is essential. Failure to adapt to the tournament circumstances can inhibit chances of success.

From Florida A&amp;M to Forest Hills

Abstract: Abstract This chapter begins by looking at Althea Gibson’s move to Tallahassee to start her education at Florida A&M. By coming to Florida’s capital city, which operated under Jim Crow laws, she had moved further South and more deeply under segregation. Florida Agricultural and Mechanical College (FAMC) itself represented the ways in which segregation limited Gibson’s options. Respectability enforced by the FAMC administration mediated what students did, where they went, and how they looked when they went there. The chapter then focuses on the campaign to get Gibson into Forest Hills. It also recounts her time in the National Clay Court tournament and the Eastern Grass-Court Championships. As Gibson waited for the United States Lawn Tennis Association (USLTA) to announce her admission into Forest Hills, the White national championship, she prepared to compete in the American Tennis Association (ATA) Nationals, the Black event. In covering Gibson’s admission to Forest Hills, the press, Black and White, confronted gender in sports integration while at the same time inadvertently revealing the factors that made it difficult for Black women to gain a foothold in almost any realm considered exclusively male.

Impact of a 6-Day Official Tournament on Physical Demands, Perceptual–Physiological Responses, Well-Being, and Game Performance of Under-18 Basketball Players

Abstract: Purpose : This study aimed to examine the effect of a 6-day basketball tournament on the physical demands, perceptual–physiological responses, well-being, and game statistics of elite under-18 (years of age) players. Methods : Physical demands (player load [PL], steps, impacts, and jumps, all normalized by playing time), perceptual–physiological responses (heart rate and rating of perceived exertion), well-being (Hooper index), and game statistics of 12 basketball players were monitored during 6 consecutive games. Linear mixed models and Cohen d effect sizes were used to assess differences among games. Results : Significant changes were found for PL per minute, steps per minute, impacts per minute, peak heart rate, and Hooper index over the tournament. Pairwise comparisons showed that PL per minute was higher in game #1 than in games #4 ( P = .011, large ), #5 ( P < .001, very large ), and #6 ( P < .001, very large ). PL per minute recorded during game #5 was also lower than in games #2 ( P = .041, large ) and #3 ( P = .035, large ). The number of steps per minute was higher in game #1 than in all other games (all P < .05, large to very large ). Impacts per minute were significantly higher in game #3 than in games #1 ( P = .035, large ) and #2 ( P = .004, large ). The only physiological variable that varied significantly was peak heart rate (higher in game #3 than in game #6; P = .025, large ). The Hooper index gradually increased throughout the tournament, indicating poorer player well-being as the tournament advanced. Game statistics did not significantly change among games. Conclusions : The average intensities of each game and the players’ well-being gradually decreased throughout the tournament. Conversely, physiological responses were mostly unaffected, and game statistics were unaffected.

Pengaruh Teams Games Tournament Berbantuan Media Sticky Notes Terhadap Keterampilan Berpikir Kritis Siswa Sekolah Dasar

Abstract: Education is an effort to help individuals in developing themselves. The development of science affects the existence of a systematic, critical way of learning so it is necessary to think in a directed and clear manner with the active involvement of students in learning. This research was conducted by researchers because they wanted to try to do learning by applying the Teams Games Tournament model with the help of sticky notes media with the conventional model with the help of image media in order to see a specific comparison of students' critical thinking. A research method is a quantitative approach in the form of a nonequivalent pretest and posttest control group design. The sample was from all the fourth-grade students of Az-Zahro Islamic Elementary School which amounted to 12 people and the fourth-grade students of SDN 2 Gamping 16 people. Data were obtained from students by working on pretest and posttest questions in the form of description questions totaling 10 questions. After analyzing the collected data, the researcher conducted a hypothesis test with the intention of seeing the difference from the treatment carried out. Hypothesis test analysis data obtained 0.000 <0.05 so Ha is accepted and H0 is rejected. The researcher concludes that there is a positive impact of the Teams Games Tournament (TGT) model assisted by sticky notes media on students' critical thinking skills that increase and are enthusiasm in learning activities. The increase in students' critical thinking is also known from the average post-test results of the experimental class students 91 and the control class average of 81.