世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

Growth in a Time of Debt

Economics Of Discrimination

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Growth in a time of debt

Questo lavoro analizza le diverse fasi della recente crisi economico-finanziaria, ponendo l'accento sull'entita' del credit crunch in Italia e nel resto d'Europa, al fine di cogliere le similitudini ma, soprattutto, le differenze tra i paesi centrali e quelli periferici ell'area dell'euro, tra i quali l'Italia. In particolare, ci concentreremo sul legame tra crisi del debito sovrano e crisi bancaria: l'instaurarsi di un circolo vizioso tra instabilita' finanziaria e difficolta' delle finanze ubbliche S, infatti, uno degli elementi alla base della profonda fase di stagnazione delle conomie periferiche dell'area euro.

Crisi finanziaria globale, crisi sovrana e crisi bancaria: L'Italia e il confronto europeo

A major policy issue is whether troubles in the banking system re ected in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 have spurred a credit crunch and, if so, how and why its severity has been different across markets and firms. In this paper, we tackle this issue by looking at the Italian case. We take advantage of a dataset on a large sample of manufacturing firms, observed quarterly between January 2008 and September 2009. Thanks to detailed information about loan applications and lending decisions, we are able to identify the occurrence of a credit crunch in Italy which has been found to be harsher in provinces with a large share of branches owned by distantly-managed banks. Inconsistent with the flight to quality hypothesis, however, we do not find evidence that economically weaker and smaller firms suffered more during the crisis period than during tranquil periods. By contrast, we find that large and healthy firms, the segment of borrowers which, according to theoretical predictions, are cream-skimmed by distantly-headquartered banks, were more intensely hit by the credit tightening in functionally distant credit markets than in the ones populated by less distant banks. This last result is consistent with the hypothesis of a home bias on the part of nationwide banks.

The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Recent empirical findings by Elsas (2005) and Degryse and Ongena (2007) document a U-shaped effect of market concentration on relationship lending whichvcannot be easily accommodated to the investment and strategic theory of relationship lending. In this paper, we show that this non-monotonicity can be explained by looking at the organisational structure of local credit markets. We provide evidence that marginal increases in interbank competition are detrimental (favourable) to relationship lending in markets where transaction-based loans are a primary (limited) product offered by a vast (tiny) group of large, outside headquartered banks. On the contrary, where relational-based lending technologies are already widely in;use in the market, an increase in competition may drive banks to further cultivate their extensive ties with customers. Finally, we show that when competition comes from functionally distant banks, local intermediaries increase their engagement in relationship lending with local firms, consistent with the flight-to-captivity mechanism introduced by Boot and Thakor (2000) and further discussed by Dell'Ariccia and Marquez (2004) and Hauswald and Marquez (2006).

Competition and Relationship Lending: Friends or Foes?

Managing and identifying risks are a key challenge for Low Income Countries (LICs), which are extremely vulnerable to exogenous shocks. However, the use of risk management tools by developing countries is quite limited. The paper discusses in which ways aid could strengthen the capacity of LICs to deal with vulnerability to external shocks and to manage capital flows. We provide some novel empirical evidence on the potential role of aid as output stabilizer and shock absorber in recipient countries, and on aid unpredictability.

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Aid and Vulnerability

This paper introduces a new dataset on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 Low-Income Countries over the period 1971-2011. We characterize the recent trends regarding LICs domestic public debt and explore the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. We also observe that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term instruments over time and that the maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the Central Bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.

Andrea F. Presbitero

Papers

Crisi finanziaria globale, crisi sovrana e crisi bancaria: L'Italia e il confronto europeo

The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Competition and Relationship Lending: Friends or Foes?

Aid and Vulnerability

Domestic public debt in low-income countries: trends and structure