世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

Growth in a Time of Debt

Economics Of Discrimination

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Growth in a time of debt

Unemployment is one of the most visible effects of financial crises. We contribute to the empirical literature on the employment effects of a decline in bank credit, investigating individual heterogeneity across firms, workers and jobs in response to a financial shock. We use a rich data set of over 1.5 million individual job contracts in an Italian region, which is matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. Our findings indicate that a 10 percent supply-driven credit contraction reduces employment by 2.5 percent. The effect is mostly concentrated among relatively less-educated and less-skilled workers with temporary contracts, and is consistent with the presence of a “dual” labor market and a skill-upgrade strategy adopted by firms in response to the financial shock.

Banks, Firms, and Jobs

In this double issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy we publish a set of papers concerned with the mobilization of domestic and foreign capital in support of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals that were launched in September 2015. The papers were originally presented at a conference on ‘Financing for Development’ organized by the International Monetary Fund and the Centre for Finance and Development at the Graduate Institute in Geneva in April 2015.

Financing for development: editors’ introduction

This study uses loan-level data on syndicated lending to a large sample of developing countries between 1993 and 2017 to estimate the mobilization effects of multilateral development banks (MDBs), that is, their ability to crowd-in capital from private creditors. Controlling for a large set of fixed effects, the paper shows evidence of positive and significant mobilization effects of multilateral lending on the size of bank inflows. The number of lenders and the average maturity of syndicated loans also increase. These effects are present not only on impact but last for up to three years and are not offset by a decline in bond financing. There is no evidence of anticipation effects, and the results are robust to numerous tests controlling for the role of confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity. Finally, the results are economically sizable, indicating that MDBs can mobilize about seven dollars in bank credit over a three-year period for each dollar invested.

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Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

This paper studies the high and persistent U.S. cost of financial intermediation (CFI) documented by Philippon (2015) and its inverted U-shape behavior since the mid-1960s. We build a novel model of endogenous growth and bank intermediation and introduce imperfect bank competition, bank IT adoption and bank entry, and an occupational choice that determines the relative size of the labor force and the economy's average level of managerial ability. The interplay between verification costs, market structure, and occupational choice delivers implications for the CFI which are qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts of the U.S. economy. We find that the banking sector structure is the main determinant of the long-run level of the CFI. We also show that the U.S. productivity growth slowdown from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s is a major driver of the simultaneous increase in the CFI and the number of banks during this period and their subsequent decline.

Technology Adoption, Market Structure, and the Cost of Bank Intermediation

This work investigates the roots of economic development. The debate about the predominance of institutions over geography has not yet reached a firm conclusion: this analysis wants to highlight the main difficulties that one should address in order to find which are the real determinants of long-run economic growth. I argue that the institutional view is not so strong as it may appear: different specifications and different institutional indicators undermine the exclusive importance of institutions. The results of Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson in favour of the institutional approach are no more valid if other institutional indicators are used instead of the risk of expropriation.;Geographical factors related to the health environment and the physical integration in the world markets play a role in the process of economic growth, beyond their effect on institutional development. Geography seems to be a factor even using different specification of the model. However, in this case, the Instrumental Variable procedure is far from being perfect: lack of sensible indicators and strong problem of endogeneity are the main difficulties. A closest look at the economic history and ecology should always be part of this sort of analysis.

Andrea F. Presbitero

Papers

Banks, Firms, and Jobs

Financing for development: editors’ introduction

Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

Technology Adoption, Market Structure, and the Cost of Bank Intermediation

The Determinants of Economic Development Insitution or Geography