世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

Growth in a Time of Debt

Economics Of Discrimination

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Growth in a time of debt

The paper analyzes the relationships between mutual loan-guarantee societies (MLGS), small firms and banks trying to evaluate the role played by the guarantees granted by MLGSs and by different banks on the availability and the cost of credit. We focus on a sample of firms member of a specific MLGS and we run different econometric exercises in order to identify the effects of the interaction between local firms, banks and MLGS on credit rationing, on the cost of credit, and on the time and the number of guarantees required to obtain a line of credit. Our findings suggest a critical relevance of the MLGS guarantees on the local firms’ credit access and conditions. Finally, while the existing evidence points out a reduction in the cost of credit due to MLGSs intermediation, our analysis stresses the heterogeneity of the benefits for local firms, which depends substantially by the guarantees provided by the MLGS and by the reference banks.

Confidi, Piccole Imprese E Banche: Un'Analisi Empirica

This paper looks at the correlation between international remittances and the business cycle of destination countries, trying to disentangle between the altruistic and the investment purposes of remittances. To this aim, we will exploit a novel and rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to 155 developing countries over the period 2005-2011. We find that remittances act as an output stabilizer in destination countries and they also increase in response to negative shocks to the terms of trade, to natural disasters and to the outbreak of armed conflicts. This would suggest that remittances could help mitigating developing countries’ vulnerability to negative macroeconomic and external shocks.

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Remittances as shock absorbers in developing countries

This work investigates the roots of economic development. The debate about the predominance of institutions over geography is far from reaching a firm conclusion, and this analysis highlights the main difficulties that should be addressed in order to find out the real determinants of long-run economic growth. I argue that the institutional view is not as strong as it may appear: different specifications and different institutional indicators undermine the exclusive importance of institutions. Geographical factors, related to the health and sanitary conditions and to the accessibility to the sea of a country, play a role in economic development, that goes beyond the way in which they shape institutions. The empirical evidence implies that the development policies should be directed to improving not only the quality of governance, but also the sanitary conditions in the least developed countries. However, since there is a lack of accurate indicators and difficult problems of endogeneity, more reliable instruments and indicators of geography and institutions are needed in order to achieve a firm conclusion.

Institutions and Geography as Sources of Economic Development

Confidi, piccole imprese e banche: un’analisi empirica

Questo paper analizza in che misura i confidi siano riusciti a limitare i problemi di accesso al credito da parte delle piccole imprese durante la crisi.;Dapprima vengono discusse le principali trasformazioni registrate dalla struttura del settore dei confidi negli anni recenti e le evidenze empiriche sul ruolo dei confidi durante la crisi economico-finanziaria. Successivamente, sulla base dell'analisi del campione di aziende incluse nell'indagine mensile sulle imprese manifatturiere dell'Istat, mostriamo la capacita' dei confidi di facilitare l'accesso al credito nella fase di crisi. Infine, a seguito del ruolo positivo svolto dai confidi, avanziamo alcune considerazioni sulle politiche pubbliche a sostegno dei confidi.

Andrea F. Presbitero

Papers

Confidi, Piccole Imprese E Banche: Un'Analisi Empirica

Remittances as shock absorbers in developing countries

Institutions and Geography as Sources of Economic Development

Confidi, piccole imprese e banche: un’analisi empirica

I consorzi di garanzia fidi durante la crisi